Championship Sunday is upon us as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs, who are hosting their seventh AFC Championship Game in eight years.
Conversely, in an NFC East showdown, the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles, who are hosting their second NFC Championship Game in three years.
Will it be a three-peat? Will it be a rookie quarterback lifting the Lombardi Trophy?
There are many lingering questions on the final four teams, so let’s get right to it.
Three-peat or the field?
Mac Pham: Chiefs three-peat. Opponents must play mistake-free football and get a break from the Chiefs offense to have a chance. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and a defense that was fourth in scoring defense (19.2) is a nightmare to go up against.
Cody Burton: No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls, and that will continue. Defeating the Chiefs has been a near-impossible task, but the remaining teams, especially Buffalo, will find their weaknesses and conquer the beast.
Omar Patel: Buffalo has shown the ability to score efficiently no matter the defense, only scoring under 30 points three times in the regular season. The Chiefs, on the other hand, haven’t scored more than 30 points the entire regular season. Pairing that with the Bills’ offensive line looking stellar, it’s difficult to see the Chiefs play in the big game.
William Jing: The field, undoubtedly. The Chiefs have struggled this regular season more than in prior seasons, and the lucky bounces will not go their way forever. The Bills have already beaten them once this season, and the Eagles look unstoppable with the way Saquon Barkley is playing. While the Chiefs can win again, the chances are small.
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Jason Trochez-Reyes: The Chiefs’ three-peat feels unavoidable at this point. The Chiefs often do just enough to win games, and their 16-game win streak is in one-score games. Unless a team manages to get up big on the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes will lift the Vince Lombardi trophy for a third straight year.
Jackson Overholt: The Chiefs will be stopped by the Bills. The Buffalo Bills are the second-highest-scoring offense in the NFL. The Chiefs will not be able to stop it. And unlike the Rams, the Chiefs don’t have the caliber to score that often.
Everyone has talked about the refs favoring Mahomes this season, but the defense has only allowed 19.2 points per game. However, the Chiefs’ offense lacks the spark that allows the Bills to score those points.
Nathan Shriberg: The Chiefs’ reign will end this year with a loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are the only remaining team to average 30+ points per game, and they face an opponent who has failed to reach that mark even once this year. On the heels of an MVP-caliber season from Josh Allen, the Bills will finally break through in the AFC to get their first Super Bowl since 1994.
Manas Sharma: How many times are NFL fans going to doubt Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? There is little doubt that we will see sports history made in this year’s Super Bowl.
Many analysts ranted and raved about the Texans’ defense, but the Chiefs held Houston to just 12 points. Mahomes and company are 15-0 in their last 15 one-score games. At a certain point, it’s not luck anymore.
It was not too long ago people used to bet against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Let’s not make that same mistake again.
AFCCG SCORE PREDICTIONS:
- Pham: KC 41 – BUF 23
- Burton: BUF 28 – KC 24
- Patel: BUF 33 – KC 29
- Jing: BUF 28 – KC 27
- Trochez: KC 27 – BUF 20
- Overholt: BUF 31 – KC 24
- Shriberg: BUF 34 – KC 27
- Sharma: KC 27 – BUF 21
NFCCG SCORE PREDICTIONS:
- Pham: PHI 19 – WSH 17
- Burton: PHI 30 – WSH 20
- Patel: WSH 24 – PHI 23
- Jing: PHI 31 – WSH 20
- Trochez: WSH 27 – PHI 24
- Overholt: PHI 30 – WSH 28
- Shriberg: PHI 27 – WSH 20
- Sharma: WSH 38 – PHI 28
Who is the biggest X-factor in each matchup?
Pham: If the Bills catch a break and get the Chiefs to make a silly mistake, the Bills have a chance. Patrick Mahomes, in three playoff games against Buffalo, had zero turnovers.
When Brian Robinson Jr has over 65 rushing yards, the Commanders are 7-0, including the postseason.
Burton: The Bills’ secondary can completely change the game, Damar Hamlin is an electric factory, as a heavy hitter and vital in all aspects of the defense. Bills’ starting left cornerback Rasul Douglas could also change the game with his first interception of the season.
Despite making Eagles history, becoming the all-time playoff receiving yards leader against the Rams, Devonta Smith has had a quiet postseason following a season below his usual standard. If Smith crosses the century mark of yards for only the third time this season, the Eagles should handle business against the surprising Commanders.
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Patel: If the Bills’ interior offensive line can contain Chiefs All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, which is easier said than done, they can remove a big portion of the Chiefs’ defensive gameplan. Although he doesn’t match up against one single lineman for the entirety of the game, the Bills’ interior offensive line had a great game against the Ravens’ star-studded defensive line.
Although the Eagles have two-star receivers, and stopping Saquon Barkley is easier said than done, the Commanders’ run defense can make the game easier for the rest of the team by stacking the box and forcing Jalen Hurts to pass. The Eagles have a record of 1-0 when Barkley rushes for under 65 yards, where they only won by 4 points against the Cleveland Browns.
Jing: The Bills’ clutch factor will be the X-Factor in the AFC title game. The Bills have a habit of choking in the playoffs, and history tells us this game will come down to the final few possessions. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have proven to have the clutch gene time and time again. If the Bills can activate theirs, they’ll walk out with the win.
The Commanders’ run defense will play a big part in determining the result. Saquon Barkley has been the most dominant running back in the NFL this season, and he is the best player on the Eagles. Stopping Barkley is the only hope the Commanders have of keeping themselves in the game.
Trochez: The Chiefs’ receiving core outside of Xavier Worthy had zero catches in the game against the Texans. Expect this to change in the championship game, as the Bills’ secondary isn’t as strong as the Texans. Expect some big plays from Hollywood Brown as the free-agent acquisition was brought exactly for these playoff games.
Despite picking the Commanders, the biggest X-factor could be Jalen Carter, as the second-year man came up big against the Rams late and faced a backup lineman with the injury to Washington’s interior lineman Sam Cosmi.
Shriberg: The Eagles and the Chiefs held their opponents to less than 20 points per game this season. However, both teams are taking on top-five scoring offenses.
In the AFC, expect the difference to be made in the trenches. Josh Allen has only been sacked 14 times this year, and the Chiefs don’t have a star-studded defensive line. In week 11, Allen was never sacked and the Bills won. If the Chiefs’ pass rush can’t get home, expect the same result.
Despite having the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, the Eagles were still the league’s #1 passing defense. The matchup with Washington will depend on the Eagles’ pass coverage and their ability to contain Jayden Daniels’ big play ability.
Sharma: The answer in the AFC is simple: Travis Kelce. Taylor Swift jokes aside, the Chiefs have a record of 30-8 dating since 2014 when Kelce had 100 receiving yards. He achieved that mark against just two teams this season: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and last game, the Houston Texans. Both games were Kansas City wins.
The Chiefs have somehow managed to have worse and worse receiving options every year of Mahomes’ career, but one constant has always remained. Kelce’s play in the regular season makes many fans think he should consider retiring.
But, just like Rob Gronkowski did in his later years with Brady, it’s very clear Kelce goes into extra gear come playoff time. By all metrics, the Texans’ defense is superior to the Bills’ defense. The Texans let Kelce have 7 catches for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s scary to think what’s gonna happen next week at Arrowhead.
In the NFC, Terry McLaurin will be the difference in what will likely be an offensive showdown in Philadelphia. McLaurin’s stats don’t jump off the page during this playoff run.
He still leads all receivers in playoff touchdowns, but, sometimes, it’s what the stats don’t say. The fact that on almost every big fourth down conversion in Detroit last Sunday, the ball found its way to him.
Daniels trusts his guys, but McLaurin has another level of trust. Every time the game is on the line, he makes a big play, and expect him to do the same thing this Sunday.
Bold predictions:
Pham: In a valiant effort, the Bills play keep away early and often to control the clock. James Cook will get over 20 carries (he had 20+ in two games all season) and Josh Allen will get another dose of six to eight designed quarterback runs.
The Commanders stack the box against Saquon Barkley and the Eagles abandon the run game in the second half, handing Barkley the rock less than five times in the second half.
Patel: Two different upsets see the Buffalo Bills face off against the Washington Commanders in what would be their first Super Bowl in over 30 years.
William Jing: Nothing out-of-the-ordinary will happen in the conference championships. Yes, the bold prediction is also the unbold prediction. We won’t see anything we don’t expect unless you count the Bills winning as a bold prediction.
Trochez: Patrick Mahomes outgains Josh Allen in rushing yards this game as the Chiefs’ defense keys in on stopping QB runs and Mahomes uses his legs in key situations which ultimately leads to the Chiefs maintaining a lead all game.
Jayden Daniels’ historic rookie season continues as another clutch drive leads to Washington’s first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years.
Shriberg: The Bills finally get over the hump, and this time it won’t go to OT. The Chiefs never lead in the AFC Championship and Buffalo fends off a late push from Mahomes to cruise into the Super Bowl.
Who (or which group of positions) has been the most valuable to their team in the postseason?
Pham: Jayden Daniels! “This rookie quarterback feels no pressure at the moment.” Rookie quarterbacks that make it this far are playing with house money.
That’s taking nothing away from Daniels. He’s poise, accurate, and clutch.
Burton: The year of the running back has continued in the postseason. When the weather gets cold, a team needs to have a good run game, and what Saquon Barkley has done in the postseason so far, continuing his momentum in the regular season, deserves to be noticed.
Patel: The Rams pass rush, headlined by Jared Verse, got 16 sacks in their two postseason games, despite averaging 2.2 sacks per game.
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Overholt: It is hard to watch the Eagles play and not see how important that free-agency pick-up was for that team. Barkley plowed the snow for 205 yards on Sunday.
He also scored one-third of the team’s touchdowns. Although he didn’t put up points on the scoreboard against the Packers, he is always trustworthy to give the ball to and do something special.
William Jing: Saquon Barkley. Period. Give an honorable mention to Jayden Daniels because he has had a great rookie season. However, the Eagles looked weak to the end last season, and have turned it around offensively with Barkley as the cornerstone.
He is the man opposing defenses worry about before they worry about the tush push, A.J. Brown, or DeVonta Smith. Not only has Saquon Barkley been the most valuable player to his team in the postseason, but he has also been the most valuable player in all of football this year.
Trochez: Jayden Daniels’s composure and maturity are second to none. There’s no one else that could do what he’s doing, especially considering his age. His clutch gene in the Wild Card game and his coolness against the Lions is what makes him the most valuable in the postseason so far.
Shriberg: Let’s not overthink this one. Saquon Barkley averages over six yards per carry through the first two postseason games for the Eagles. With Barkley on the field, any rush could go the distance.
Sharma: The Commanders-Eagles game won’t be close. It will be a blowout that the Eagles salvage a little in garbage time. Saquon Barkley will be amazing, but Jayden Daniels is the next big thing and this Sunday will be his coronation as king of the NFC.
Who (or which group of positions) have had the most surprising performances so far in the postseason?
Pham: Commander defense dialing it up when it matters most. They gave up 137 rushing yards a game in the regular season and allowed only 101 rushing yards in the Wild Card win over Tampa Bay, who averaged 149 rushing yards.
The Commanders had seven interceptions in the regular season and had four alone in the Divisional Round win over Detroit.
Burton: The NFC North completely disappeared in the playoffs despite being arguably the best division in the regular season.
Vikings success story, Sam Darnold disappeared under the lights of the temporary home of the Rams, State Farm Stadium. He threw an interception and was sacked nine times.
Although a tough matchup in Philly, the Packers offense ghosted the entire game, Jordan Love threw three interceptions attempting to come back with an injured receiving corps.
Lastly, the Lions’ historic regular season came to nothing after being dominated by the Commanders at home. The injured defense was eviscerated by rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels and Jared Goff had no answers to Washington’s defense.
Patel: The Minnesota Vikings saw their Cinderella season come crashing down after one of their best seasons of all-time, with 9 sacks being recorded against the Vikings’ injured offensive line.
Although the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick against the Houston Texans, the Texans completely shut down the Chargers. Justin Herbert threw more interceptions this game than he did the entire season.
Jackson Overholt: The Commanders have been the surprise story but should not have been. They haven’t lost since November. They came into the playoffs as a 6 seed.
It is a different story than the beginning of the season. However, the Commanders played with a certain fight to them as the fairly young team began understanding the pace of the NFL. They gained traction and made themselves known despite being a team led by rookies.
Jing: The Commanders’ defense has been the biggest surprise of the postseason. They turned it up against the Super Bowl-favorite Detroit Lions, a task many thought no team could do.
They picked the Lions off four times and recovered a fumble by Jared Goff. That was ultimately the difference maker.
The Commanders’ defense is not a surprise because they’re bad. They’re a surprise because of how much success they’ve had against other great teams this season. Now, because of this defense, they’re one of four teams left.
Trochez: The Rams’ defensive line was surprisingly impressive in their two playoff games. The nine sacks against the Vikings’s O-line were eye-popping, but the seven-sack performance against a stand-out Eagles offensive line.
Jared Verse showed why he’s the Defensive Rookie of The Year and second-year player Kobie Turner is a player blossoming.
Shriberg: The surprise story of the playoffs is the Washington Commanders and the true revelation has been their defense. Much like their offense, the group has held their own with some of the best units in the NFL by coming up with big plays when it matters most.
The other big shock was the NFC North failing to register a win this postseason. Despite being the undisputed best division throughout the regular season, all three of their playoff teams were bounced immediately in embarrassing performances. In their three games, the NFC North combined for 10 turnovers and three early vacations.
Sharma: The Los Angeles Chargers. For all of the Jim Harbaugh hype and the Herbert top-five quarterback talk, they experienced one of the most embarrassing playoff losses in recent memory.
The Texans were without two of their receivers and were utilizing players off of the practice squad in serious offensive scenarios. Herbert, specifically, was terrible, playing 213 out of 214 rated playoff games over the past 10 years according to PFF.
Interception after interception sailed over the head of his receivers, and it’s time to have a serious conversation about how Herbert can take a franchise over the top. It’s difficult to remember a player who dazzled out of the spotlight like Herbert.
He threw for 3870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Then he went and threw four more in one playoff game.
He is now the quarterback of the losing team in two of the most embarrassing playoff losses in recent memory. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers rebound next season.
Final huddle
So, come Super Bowl Sunday, for the AFC, it’s guaranteed either the Chiefs will be in their third straight Super Bowl or the Bills’ first appearance since 1993, their last of four consecutive Super Bowl defeats.
In the NFC, it’s guaranteed either the Commanders will be in the big game for the first time since 1991 (defeated the Bills) or the Eagles’ second appearance in three years.
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