The New York Knicks entered 2025 as one of the NBA’s hottest teams.
Winning nine consecutive games and holding a 24-10 record, they seemed like a lock to meet the “40-20 Rule”. Achieving 40 wins before 20 losses is a key benchmark for championship-contending teams to meet, as only three of the last 44 NBA Champions have fallen short.
However, their hot streak quickly came to a halt after they lost to the only other team in the league hotter than them at the time— the Oklahoma City Thunder. This was just the start of their recent struggles, going on to lose four more out of their next seven.
Today, the Knicks sit in third place in the East with a 27-15 record. To reach the 40-20 mark, they will need to win 13 out of their next 17 games. With this in mind, the Knicks need more than just a few things to go their way.
KAT’S Impact
A key to the Knicks regaining their momentum is getting Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup after suffering a bone chip in his right thumb against the Pistons on Jan. 13.
Currently ranked third in Basketball Reference’s 2024-25 MVP Tracker, KAT is having a career-best season, averaging 25.4 points and 13.9 rebounds per game. Although the Knicks managed to pull through, Towns’ absence was felt in their overtime win vs the ice-cold 76ers.
The good news is that Towns is expected to play against his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, on Friday.
Predictions
Looking ahead, the Knicks face a demanding stretch in the coming month, with a challenging strength of schedule.
Thirteen of their next 17 games are against teams with a .500 record or better, including two matchups against the reigning champion Celtics and a showdown with the East-leading Cavaliers. This stretch will be a true measuring stick for the Knicks, testing their ability to compete against playoff-caliber opponents.
To predict how they might reach 40 wins, I’ve categorized their next 17 games into three groups. ‘Must-Win’ games they can’t afford to drop. ‘Should-Win’ games where they’ll be favored but need to execute. ‘Tough Tests’—matchups against elite opponents where anything can happen. Here’s how each game stacks up:
- Must Win: Minnesota, Atlanta 2x, @ Brooklyn, Sacramento, @ Toronto, Bulls, Philadelphia
- Should Win: Memphis 2x, Denver, Los Angeles (Lakers), Houston, @ Indiana
- Tough Test: Boston 2x, @ Cleveland
Ultimately, the team has the talent to string together this much-needed win streak. It’s going to come down to consistency and health. If the Knicks’ elite starting five can stay on the floor during this stretch of games, they have a good shot at reaching the 40-win mark before losing 20.
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