After signing his $240 million contract extension this summer with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Chet Holmgren‘s expectations have never been higher.
Despite only playing 114 career games, Chet is already one of the best defenders in the league and an NBA champion. Even with all he has shown and accomplished in his short time playing, it is clear he has still only scratched the surface.
So what does Chet need to do next season to reach his All-NBA potential?
Gain Much-Needed Weight
One of the main stories for Chet since college has been his slight frame. Some thought this would prevent him from having a successful NBA career, but that is not the case. However, even after his weight gain in 2023, his current weight is exacerbating the hard falls he takes and his struggles to get to the paint.
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At 208 pounds, Chet is one of the lightest centers ever. His light weight does not negatively affect his defense, but it does interfere with his health and offensive game. As every center weighs substantially more than he does, he often struggles to drive downhill in half-court offense, and this typically leads to a poor shot or turnover.
As for Chet’s falls, they are something that he needs to prevent at all costs. The majority of his scary falls are the result of his weight, and it is the reason he missed over half of the 2025 season with a freak hip injury.
Chet’s ideal weight range should be around 220-225 pounds. This weight would allow him to keep his unicron mobility and shiftiness, while minimizing his massive falls.
Consistent Three-Point Shooting
Chet has shown stretches of elite three-point shooting, but has yet to display it for a full season.
In his first 25 games of his career, he shot over 40% from three on over four attempts per game. Even though he is a career 37% three-point shooter, a superb mark for a center, his streakiness as a shooter keeps it from being even higher.
Chet’s trailing three has always been one of his most dangerous shots, and if he gets back to shooting it consistently as he once did, his scoring will take a noticeable leap.
Reliable Touch Shots
Throughout his career, and especially in 2025, Chet never had a reliable touch shot. Whether this shot is a short mid-range shot or a non-restricted paint shot, he has never efficiently hit this shot. Last season, he shot 34% on short mid-range shots and 35.5% in the non-restricted paint area.
As seen in the shot chart above, he has no go-to area inside the three-point line and outside the rim. This problem has shown up repeatedly for Chet. He has shown numerous times that he wants to get the short fadeaway, but has never been able to make it efficiently.
If Chet can get an efficient touch shot next year, whether it is the short fadeaway or another shot, his scoring may go north of 20 points, and he will become one of the best offensive centers in the league.
Full Offseason to Recover
The key to an All-NBA 2026 season may be as simple as a full offseason of recovery. Possibly the biggest reason for Chet’s inconsistent 2025 season is his hip injury. Before his injury, he was averaging 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks with 51.9/40.0/77.6 shooting splits. Afterwards, it was clear he was struggling to get back to normal.
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With a full offseason to recover from his injury, he may look identical to his early 2025 season form (or better) and be one of the most uniquely dominant centers in the NBA.
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