After another dominant defensive performance in the Divisional Round, the New England Patriots are advancing to the AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos. It marks New England’s first trip to the conference title game since 2018.
The Patriots showed elite defensive intensity in their Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans. They need to carry that over into the next round and pair it with a cleaner offensive operation. If they accomplish that, then New England should be back on its way to the Super Bowl.
The Turnovers Must Stop
The Broncos have one of the most feared defenses in the NFL. With starting quarterback Bo Nix out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle, that unit will be relied upon more than ever.
New England’s offensive operation hasn’t been clean through the start of its postseason run. Drake Maye and the offense turned the ball over five times in the first two games. Those mistakes have made games closer than they needed to be. Turnovers will be a lot more costly against a Denver defense that forced five turnovers against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.
To limit those mistakes, New England must account for Patrick Surtain II in its game plan. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year followed up his award-winning season with another elite campaign, cementing himself as one of the league’s best cornerbacks. Surtain’s ability to take away passing lanes means the Patriots must avoid forcing throws that could swing the game in Denver’s favor.
Denver’s pass rush presents another major challenge for the Patriots’ offense. The Broncos blitzed at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL this season (28.5%). Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto has been at the center of that pressure. He finished the regular season with 14 sacks, a testament to his consistent disruption off the edge.
If New England fails to account for Bonitto, negative plays and turnovers will follow, just as they did for Buffalo last week. The Patriots must be sound in their protection schemes and avoid mistakes that allow Denver’s defensive line to take over the game.
Defense Sets the Tone
New England’s defense has been a foundational piece of its postseason run. The unit has dominated games with physicality and its ability to force turnovers. That defense now faces a familiar face in Jarrett Stidham. The former Patriot is in line to step in with Nix sidelined.
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Stidham will be making the first postseason start of his career with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. New England’s defense has thrived against opposing quarterbacks this postseason by bringing pressure and staying composed in coverage. If it continues to do that, Stidham’s composure will be tested.
Limiting explosive plays will be just as important. In the games that he has played, Stidham has shown a willingness to take chances when defenses overcommit. In 2022, Stidham, who was a Las Vegas Raider at the time, faced the San Francisco 49ers in a late-season battle. The 49ers finished with the league’s No. 1 defense that season. Las Vegas did not win that game, but Stidham was able to poke holes in the 49ers’ secondary by throwing for over 350 yards and three touchdowns.
That performance showed his willingness to test elite defenses with deep strikes downfield. He took advantage of a defense that underestimated him and his teammates. New England cannot afford to do the same. Staying sound in coverage and applying pressure will limit Stidham’s chances to create explosive plays.
Denver’s offensive line presents a different challenge. The Broncos have two First-Team All-Pro selections anchoring the unit: Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz. That group has done an outstanding job of buying time for their quarterback, and more of the same should be expected.
New England cannot rely on pressure alone to disrupt Stidham because there is no guarantee that they will get it. Discipline up front will be critical. The Patriots must stay sound to their gaps and be able to maintain rushing lanes to prevent Denver from establishing the run and extending passing plays.
Discipline Will Decide It
This game will come down to which team avoids mistakes. New England holds the offensive advantage with Bo Nix sidelined. That edge disappears if Denver’s defense is allowed to dictate the pace of the game. The Patriots cannot afford the same self-inflicted errors that have kept recent playoff games close.
Playing clean football will keep New England in control. Protecting the ball prevents momentum swings. Discipline in all phases of the game will allow the Patriots’ defense to stay as aggressive. If New England can manage to execute all of those, they will have a path to Super Bowl LX.
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