Championship Sunday is just around the corner. It feels like the late 2010s — with New England traveling to Denver for another battle for the AFC title. Both teams were also Seattle’s opponents in back-to-back Super Bowls. But don’t forget the Los Angeles Rams, who have the only quarterback with championship experience who’s also potentially the league MVP, Matthew Stafford.
As we approach Championship Sunday, here are the biggest keys on film for each team:
Denver Broncos
Patrick Surtain versus Stefon Diggs is the most crucial matchup to watch in the AFC Championship game.
The reigning DPOY has allowed just 31 completions in 14 games this year while frequently traveling with the opponent’s top receiver.
On the other side, prior to this postseason, Diggs’ playoff history has been disappointing for the former All-Pro. He’s put up just one performance of 100+ yards in his last seven playoff games.
Much of it has to do with the Kansas City Chiefs bracketing him, thus limiting his offensive impact when he was with the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s a clip of Diggs and Surtain matching up in 2023:
Surtain had a few reps where he played press coverage — not giving up a free release to Diggs. He also traveled with Diggs, covering him outside the numbers and in the slot.
Out of the twelve routes, Diggs ran just two beyond 15 yards. The majority of the routes were intermediate — slants and curls. Diggs had three catches for 34 yards that day.
Coupled with Diggs’ disappointing playoff history, Surtain can take away New England’s top weapon and make the other receivers beat Denver’s secondary.
New England Patriots
New England is going against a pass rush that had the most sacks produced this year (68). Drake Maye has gone down 47 times — making him the fourth most sacked quarterback in the regular season. He’s been sacked another ten times in the playoffs so far.
The Patriots must get into third and manageable. The downside of doing so, though, is that they wouldn’t push for as many chunk plays. When they do go for longer developing plays, they must prepare for Denver’s pass rush and have the pass protections set to hit on chunk plays.
In the Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Maye took five sacks but also came up with big plays.
Here’s a play where Maye shows he’s elite against the blitz.
TreVeyon Henderson makes a terrific chop block on the blitzing linebacker. Maye slides to his left to have a better angle to throw to his target on the left side of the field.
Typically against the blitz, the quarterback must make the hot read and get the ball out of his hands quick. The combination of Maye setting up the pass protection and his pass blockers picking up the blitz results in Maye having time to hold the ball and make a big play downfield.
He drops a beautiful pass into the “hole” shot — between the boundary corner and the safety up top — for a 28-yard touchdown.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle must get pressure on Stafford with a four man pass rush. He’s one of the last quarterbacks teams want to blitz.
In two games against Stafford, Seattle came up with zero sacks and seven quarterback hits as Stafford attempted 77 passes total.
If Seattle wants to aggressively blitz Stafford, they must win the rep otherwise Stafford will torch them.
In the play above, Seattle sent a corner blitz off the strongside. The strongside is where the tight end, Colby Parkinson (#84) is lined up. While he is available underneath, Stafford’s first progression is working the other side of the field to Davante Adams.
But Adams has a longer developing route, and with a blitz, it works to Seattle’s advantage as DeMarcus Lawrence has a terrific get-off to throw Stafford off his spot and force an incompletion.
On another note, Seattle is also better off not showing blitz because Stafford is a smart quarterback who can snap the ball quickly before the linebackers can scramble back to their coverage responsibilities.
Los Angeles Rams
In two games against Sam Darnold this season, the Rams gave up two passing touchdowns and snagged six interceptions.
They must make it a drop back game on the Seahawks.
The Rams pressured Darnold on three of his six interceptions:
For additional measure, two of these interceptions came with just a four man pass rush. The Rams also showed Darnold a mix of different coverages.
On the first interception, the Rams played robber coverage where the strong safety jumps a route in the intermediate portion of the field.
Watch Kamren Kinchens (#26) for the Rams. He eyes Darnold the entire way while Darnold has his focus on the opposite side of the field Kinchens is on.
Darnold thinks his target can make a contested catch one-on-one but he never sees Kinchens play robber coverage and Kinchens intercepts the pass.
On the next interception, the Rams played quarters coverage — two safeties and two corners dividing the deep field in fourths. The corner up top is sitting on the throw outside to the numbers and easily jumps the route.
Will it be one of the long time veterans in Stafford, the young gun Maye, or one of the journeymen, Jarrett Stidham or Darnold, that finishes the job.
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