The Milwaukee Bucks have flashed glimpses of being a contender this season.
Unfortunately, the Bucks have also flashed stretches of play to have real questions about their playoff viability.
The peaks and valleys have been a rollercoaster for fans. One thing — not the only thing — that sparks the Bucks is 3-point shooting.
Bucks’ shooters differences stark in wins and losses
The Bucks are a different team when their sharpshooters get going— particularly Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green.
The type of sniping Trent Jr. and Green are capable of can bury teams. The avalanche of 3s the duo makes is enough to shoot a team into submission.
It’s been put on display a few times this year, including just this past Saturday night in Sacramento. Despite an off night from deep, GTJ buried a pair of late triples to seal the win.
On March 20 against the Lakers, Trent rained 3s and was responsible for the Bucks’ runaway victory. The 26-year-old had 23 points, including going 6-of-10 on 3s.
Another game that sticks out is against San Antonio on Jan. 8 on ESPN. AJ Green buried four first-half 3-pointers, and Trent knocked down four 3s in the fourth quarter of a 121-105 win.
https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1877198595599765719
In the Bucks’ NBA Emirates Cup Championship win over the Thunder, Trent and Green each hit three 3-pointers as well.
Trent has canned four or more 3-pointers in 13 games, including seven 3s in a win over the 76ers earlier this month. Milwaukee is 11-2 in those games. Green, meanwhile, has made four or more 3-pointers in 10 games this year. The Bucks are 6-4 in those games.
Bucks wings’ sharpshooting ability key for team
On the season, Gary Trent Jr. averages 10.8 points per game on a sizzling 42.0% from 3 on 5.6 attempts per game.
The Bucks signed Trent to a veteran minimum deal in the offseason in perhaps the steal of the summer. However, Trent struggled mightily early in the season with his shot, including a 1-for-18 stretch. Since the Bucks were just 2-8 to start the year, Trent has drained 3s at a blistering rate.
In fact, since the opening month of the year, Trent hasn’t shot below 40% from 3 in a month since. He shot 27.6% in October.
Trent is also quite a barometer for the Bucks. The numbers are stark, with Trent having a 125 offensive rating in wins and a meager 94 in losses. In Bucks wins, Trent is shooting a scorching 48.1% from 3, with a 65.9% true-shooting percentage and averaging 12.2 points per game. In losses, he is shooting just 32.4% from 3, has a 49.6% true-shooting percentage and averages 8.8 points per game.
AJ Green, meanwhile, averages 7.3 points per game for the Bucks on 41.6% three-point shooting. Like Trent, Green can be a bit of a measuring stick for the team. Green has made 84 3s in 37 victories (2.3), while just 47 in 26 losses (1.8).
There should be strong consideration for moving Trent or Green into the starting lineup over Taurean Prince. However, recently, the choice seems more likely to be Trent. Green has struggled a bit, shooting 4% worse from distance since the All-Star Break.
Starting Trent next to Dame would fit better with the size of Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
Having another wing who can scorch the nets from 3 but defend shooting guards would force defenses to guard Giannis one-on-one or give 3-point marksmen wide-open 3s. If they stay home on shooters, driving lanes should be available for Giannis and Lillard.
Adding Kyle Kuzma, who is more of a power forward but can guard small forwards, allows you to be a bit smaller with your other wing.
Also, advanced metrics aren’t very kind to Prince.
Bucks need Trent, Green to be more consistent
The Bucks lead the league with 46 games of shooting the league average (35.9%) or better from 3-point range. They have one of the biggest differences between their record in those games (33-13, .711) and their record when they’ve shot worse than average (7-17, .291).
The Bucks need to continue to raise Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green’s minutes as the playoffs draw near— Trent’s in particular, until Green breaks from a bit of a post-All-Star funk.
Leave a comment