After nine long months, the Golden State Warriors are finally playing games that count. Though Klay Thompson is out for the season, Stephen Curry is back, along with an exciting, younger Warriors team. No longer a championship favorite, Golden State has as many question marks as it’s had in years, with a blue-chip prospect in James Wiseman, and two young wings in Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr., who will need to show improvement.
Note: This was written before the start of the season, and after an up-and-down, 2-2 road trip, the Warriors still have lots of questions. Wiggins has shown flashes, Oubre can’t shoot, Wiseman has been a freak, and Steph has been shooting better. Before the opener, Alex Hutton from WarriorsTalk and I evaluated the upcoming season for the Dubs.
And after the season-opening trip, there’s still more questions than answers.
What are the best and worst-case scenarios for the Warriors this season?
Alex: For all of my answers, I’m going to assume everyone stays relatively healthy. The best-case scenario is that Steph and Draymond recapture their mid-2010s form, the veteran role players buy into their roles, the young guys step up, and the rookies adjust to the NBA quickly. I think this will result in serious contention for the Western Conference title.
On the other hand, the worst case probably involves Curry and Green struggling with the same fatigue issues they faced last season, inconsistent play from the other veterans and the young players not making any major strides. If all of these happen, the Warriors are likely to miss the playoffs.
Zevan: I think the best-case scenario is that this team finishes at the four seed in the west. The Warriors are clearly a tier below the Lakers and Clippers without Klay. If Michael Porter Jr. takes the leap that most expect him to, the Warriors aren’t on the Nuggets’ level either. Depending on Kristaps Porzingis’ health, the Mavs could finish in the West’s top tier as well.
But the Warriors still have the best player on the court in 99% of their games, two guys that’ll average 17+ points per game, and a defense that should finish in the top half of the league. A lot would need to go right, but this team could easily overachieve and be one of the best of the second-tier teams in the Western Conference.
The worst-case scenario is the Warriors end up as one of the play-in teams. This would presume that Wiseman was mediocre, Draymond is fully washed and over the hill, and Wiggins and Oubre were a total negatives on offense. The bench would have to really struggle, and guys like Jordan Poole and Eric Paschall would have to not make any second-year leaps.
How likely is it that Steph Curry wins the MVP, and where would that catapult him in the all-time pantheon?
Alex: Very unlikely. He’d probably need to put up numbers similar to those in his 2015-2016 season. If he doesn’t do that, it’ll go to the best player on one of the top three or four teams in the league as it usually does. If Curry were to win, it would definitely elevate his all-time standing — but only by a little. I think the more long-term discussions surrounding his legacy would depend almost solely on how he does in the playoffs.
Zevan: Steph becoming the ninth player in NBA history to win three MVP’s would be a help to his legacy, even if he doesn’t win a title. But I do agree that it is unlikely, especially with Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic on deeper teams, and with the narrative in their favor as well. Personally, if the Nets finish as a top-three seed in the East and KD averages his typical 25-27 a night, I don’t see how he doesn’t win it.
Steve Kerr has shown he can take a good team and make them great, but he hasn’t yet had the chance to prove he can maximize and squeeze every last drop out of a team full of question marks. How do you think he will fare?
Alex: I think the 2019-2020 season offered a blessing in disguise for Kerr. Specifically, he learned a lot about management and coaching through adversity. This will benefit him tremendously in the upcoming season. In addition, now that the post-Kevin Durant era is here, Kerr can go back to his style of emphasizing team chemistry over individual focus. With all the new players coming in, he can approach this season as something of a reset which I think will be successful.
Zevan: I agree with 2019-2020 being a blessing in disguise for Kerr, as I think it was for the whole organization. Kerr has a lot of new pieces, and I expect there to be some growing pains in the first part of the season. I expect him to fare well and help this team make the playoffs, but this is easily the most pressure he’s had since his first season. The Warriors no longer have a team full of veterans with high IQs, and their key players have never really been part of a winning team/culture before. Kerr’s famous culture will really be put to the test this season.
Kerr said his goal was for the Warriors to have a top-10 defense. How likely is this, and what do you expect out of Draymond this year?
Alex: While I don’t think they’ll have a top-10 defensive season statistically, I do think it’s possible that they’ll be one of the 10 best defensive teams in the league by the time the season ends. This is because I predict that they will get off to a slow start defensively as they learn to work together on the court but will gradually get better as the season goes on. They have a number of extremely skilled individual defenders, but their success all depends on team defense from a core that hasn’t played together much.
As for Green, I believe that no one on the Warriors benefitted from the extended offseason more than he did. He was clearly checked out at times last season, but when he was locked in, he was still his highly capable, versatile self. A better team around him means he’ll be turning in more effort on both ends of the floor. I expect him to return to his defensive anchor role in a big way while also serving as a key offensive catalyst.
Zevan: I mostly agree with your assessment, although I am going to slightly lean towards the Warriors having a top-10 defense not just because of Draymond, who should have a resurgent year, but because I expect immediate contributions from James Wiseman. He is easily the most agile seven-footer I’ve ever seen. He will protect the rim excellently while also being able to switch out onto most guards and wing players. And as long as Draymond is energized, he’s going to be one of the three to five best defenders in the league, which will have the Warriors in the eight to 10 range on the defensive side of the ball.
Who will be the Warriors’ second-leading scorer?
Alex: I’ll go with Andrew Wiggins. While he’s never lived up to his No. 1 overall pick potential, he’s never played with teammates like Curry or Green, who should fit into his game nicely. Wiggins will find easier shots than he has for most of his career. He has shown a lot of promise in the few games he has played in a Warrior uniform (about 20 points per game at around 46% shooting), and a full season will give him a real chance to establish himself.
Zevan: I’m going to go with an unlikely answer here and say Kelly Oubre. He’s shown tremendous improvement in his three-pointer every year of his career, and I think he has potential as an isolation scorer. He is a perfect complementary player on offense. Oubre is outstanding in transition/on the fast break, and the Warriors are likely to play a ”seven seconds or less” type of style this season. He will knock down his shots and convert his transition opportunities to become the second-leading scorer on the Dubs.
Which one of Oubre or Wiggins will the Warriors view as a better long-term piece by season’s end?
Alex: Wiggins. He and Oubre will both have good seasons, but Wiggins is a real part of Golden State’s future while Oubre feels like more of a rental in light of Klay Thompson’s injury.
Zevan: I’m gonna have to disagree again. I find it hard to believe that someone as competitive as Joe Lacob would just let Oubre walk away for nothing if he has a great year this year. Being that he has improved every year, and plays with more consistent energy, I’m going to go with Oubre.
Will James Wiseman win the Rookie of the Year, and what is his short- and long-term ceiling?
Alex: I don’t think he’ll win Rookie of the Year — my money for that one is on either Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball. I do, however, think that Wiseman will be a good addition to the team. His short-term ceiling is a role as the Warriors’ starting center who doesn’t close games, while his long-term ceiling could be the big man of the future who the Warriors keep around for years to come.
Zevan: I think he will win it and be a consensus by the end of the year. I think his ceiling is peak DeAndre Jordan in year 1, and a hybrid Chris Bosh-Joel Embiid type of player by year 3 or year 4.
Which role player will exceed expectations, and which will disappoint?
Alex: Jordan Poole will exceed expectations. After some rookie struggles, he seemed to be turning his game around right before last season’s shutdown. Although the preseason is never a perfect indicator, he looked confident handling the ball and creating his own shot, leading to double-digit points in two of the three exhibition contests. He appears to have found his role and his success will be a matter of sticking to it. Although I’m not a significant doubter of any of the role players, the one I have the least confidence in is Brad Wanamaker. I haven’t seen a ton of his game, in Boston or elsewhere, but what I have seen doesn’t stand out to me and I think it will take him a while to adjust to a new system.
Zevan: I’m not as high on Poole as the rest of the Warriors’ fan base seemingly is, but I am excited to see what he can contribute. That said, the role player I’m expecting to overperform expectations the most in Mychal Mulder. With Klay injured, I think it’s quite clear that he’s the second best shooter on the team, and he will have ample opportunities to produce this season. I’m totally with you on Wanamaker, though. He can shoot the three a little bit, but he can’t really create his own shot, and I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to hold up on defense.
What is your prediction for the Warriors this season?
Alex: 41 wins, No. 6 seed and a second-round playoff exit. In terms of accolades, Curry will be an All-Star and make the All-NBA Second Team.
Zevan: 44 wins, No. 5 seed, first-round win over Utah and a First-Team All-NBA for Steph. I think Steph and Draymond will come in the top five of MVP-voting and the Defensive Player of the Year voting, respectively.
Journey Continues
So far, so good? The Warriors open the 2021 portion of the season tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers, kicking off a seven-game homestand.
Follow us on Twitter @DubsLead for the latest Warriors news and insight.
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