Has Peyton Watson Played Himself Into the Nuggets’ Core?

The Denver Nuggets face an unexpected but challenging choice as the season hits the third act. 

In a season that should’ve been derailed by injury, Denver is hanging onto the No. 3 seed in the NBA’s loaded Western Conference. In the absence of many key players, Peyton Watson has stepped up phenomenally.

His play, especially in Christian Braun‘s absence, has put the Nuggets in an awkward spot.

The young stretch wing has raised his averages across the board and been a fulcrum of Denver’s offense and defense. He has found a way to get his own shot — a far cry from where he was last season. Watson has played a hefty 30 minutes a game, and Denver has needed every one.

There were times this season where Denver’s offense relied on Murray and Watson, either making it happen on their own or using their offensive gravity to make openings for others. Watson is shooting 41.9% from three with a 19% usage rate. He won an NBA Western Conference Player-of-the-Week. It was truly high-level stuff.

Defensively, he has been as solid as Denver could ask for. He’s lengthy, agile, and an elite shot blocker for his position. He covers vast amounts of space and can stay in front of quick guards. Watson has materialized into a true three-and-D player. 

From the Nuggets’ perspective, Watson has almost played too well.

Watson becomes a free agent after this season, and teams around the league will definitely be making bids for his services. His play this season will demand bigger money, and Denver is not in a position to resign him flat out.

Denver Nuggets’ Cap Situation

Denver can’t add Watson’s future asking price to the books without entering the dreaded second apron, so they’ll have to make a choice.

The core of Murray, Nikola Jokic, and Aaron Gordon are all under contract and essential to the team. Cameron Johnson is only signed through next season, but is still acclimating to the team. The rotation players are all on rotation-player contracts that opened up after moving on from Michael Porter Jr.; all of them are essential to Denver’s success. That leaves Christian Braun, who is the most obvious contender for Watson’s future cap space. 

Denver signed Braun to a five-year, $125,000,000 extension after the standout rookie earned the starting spot and solidified himself as part of Denver’s core going forward. He’s a Swiss Army knife who does the Nuggets’ dirty work. He can guard most positions, rebound, and be the glue of Denver’s rotation. While he signed a hefty extension, it wasn’t a hard choice for the front office.

While the extension made sense at the time, Watson has been nothing short of exceptional since.

Potential or Dependability?

Watson has thrived in large part because of a left ankle injury Braun suffered early in the season. In Braun’s absence, Watson thrived in a new role. To make matters more complicated, the skill set that Watson displayed has been a superior version of Braun’s. 

This season, Watson is shooting a staggering 41% from three to Braun’s 19%. Three of the four Nuggets’ best lineups feature Watson instead of Braun. With raw numbers, Watson is averaging 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game to Braun’s 9.9, 4.3 and 2.8.

Granted, Braun has been injured and ramping up this season, but the two both average 30 minutes per game. In addition, Watson’s usage is much higher. In similar minutes, Watson has been a higher-ceiling offensive player who still brings immense defensive value. His vision and creation have expanded, and he is dynamite in transition. 

Choosing Between Christian Braun and Peyton Watson

It seems unfair to kick Christian Braun when he’s down. Braun was fully healthy last season, and he was excellent in his role. Peyton Watson’s breakout has just been too impressive to ignore. It’s a taste of what could be.

In a sense, this is a champagne problem for Denver. They have two awesome young players that fit an archetype the league is desperate for. Watson has been exceptional in a new role and has the higher ceiling. Braun is dependable, steady, and has a proven track record of extremely valuable play.

If Denver chooses Watson, they could be taking what Braun provides for granted and be missing him dearly in big moments. Watson might not ever reach his ceiling as a playoff starter like Braun has. If Denver sticks with Braun and lets Watson walk, they could risk being the team that let a borderline-star player go for nothing and be asking themselves what could’ve been. 

The Nuggets will have to choose one, though. While the core of the team is locked up for the long-term, the complementary players are what win championships in the modern NBA. This is an important choice, and could make or break the Nuggets’ long-term aspirations.