The Buffalo Bills are starting the playoffs on the road for the first time since 2019. They head into this wildcard matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars with reigning MVP Josh Allen, rushing champion James Cook, and the league’s top pass defense.
Let’s look at the film to determine their keys to beating the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Best Rushing Attack vs Best Run Defense
Buffalo led the league in rushing yards (159.6 per game) while Jacksonville had the best run defense (85.6 per game).
So, the question for Buffalo is whether they believe their strength is better than Jacksonville’s strength.
Earlier this season, Buffalo played Houston and Tampa Bay, who ended the season in the top five in run defense, giving up 93.7 rushing yards and 99.1 rushing yards per game, respectively.
In those games, Buffalo did not shy away from handing the ball off to Cook, who took 17 carries for 116 yards against Houston and another 16 carries against Tampa Bay, but was limited to 48 yards.
One of the key run concepts Buffalo uses is duo, a double-team block on a defensive lineman that opens a hole for the running back. Then the running back must read the unblocked linebacker to find the open lane.
On this play, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown create a double team block on the defensive lineman to create a hole for James Cook.
This leaves the linebacker Christian Elliss (#53) unblocked. Cook follows the hole for five yards before Elliss initiates contact for a tackle.
That scheme will be a crucial concept to watch for on Sunday.
Buffalo Must Rely on Tight Ends in the Passing Attack
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be Buffalo’s X-factor on Sunday.
Kincaid is 16th among tight ends in receiving yards (571) and Dawson Knox is 28th in the same category (417).
So, in context, that’s two tight ends for Buffalo that are in the top 30 in a key category.
The Jaguars defense allows 64.4 receiving yards to tight ends, ranking seventh highest in the league.
Earlier, we broke down how Buffalo uses duo as one of the key run concepts. Here’s a play where they show duo, only to switch to play-action out of it.
The right side of the offensive line (by Torrence and Brown) creates the double-team block on the defensive linemen to sell the run.
Kincaid is lined up as the middle of the three tight ends. He sells the duo block on the linebacker and that pulls in Marcus Jones (#25). Now, he has a step on Jones, releases out of the block to the flat and Allen hits him in stride for a touchdown out of play-action.
The usage of Buffalo’s tight ends will be key in the passing game.
Buffalo’s Bottling Pass Defense
Buffalo was first in pass defense this season, surrendering 156.9 passing yards per game. It’s a combination of their pass rush and zone coverage that leads to their success.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 15th among quarterbacks in EPA/play when facing zone coverage; he’s thrown ten touchdowns and six interceptions.
So, the Bills zone coverage should be a good matchup.
Here’s one example of the Bills’ pass rush and zone coverage working as a unit:
The key is Shaq Thompson (#45) and Taron Johnson (#7) successfully pass off the two “hook” areas of their zone coverage to eliminate the hitch route and crossing pattern by Pittsburgh’s receivers.
On the front end, Buffalo rushes four and nearly creates a coverage sack. On the backend, Buffalo plays a variation of Cover 2 — two deep safeties. Once Joey Bosa creates pressure on Aaron Rodgers, the Bills’ zone coverage turns into man and they force Rodgers to throw across his body for an incompletion.
Buffalo must lean on their stout pass defense to get off the field and hand the ball back to their quarterback.
Aggressively Go for Touchdowns
Jacksonville has a massive kicking advantage. Cam Little has made 30 of 34 field goals (88 percent) and has knocked down numerous kicks from 60+ yards out.
Meanwhile, for Buffalo, Matt Prater couldn’t finish last week’s matchup against the New York Jets. He’s made 18 of 20 field goals (90 percent) with 52 yards being his longest.
Buffalo will need to roll at the dice at times, go for seven points and not three. This can help their defense bend but not break. Jacksonville has a clear kicking advantage so Buffalo needs to keep the Jaguars offense out of the end zone.
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