Let’s get this out of the way first: yes, it is way too soon to be talking about a contract extension for a quarterback with just one season under his belt.
So why talk about it?
It’s the offseason, and it’s fun to speculate about money an average person could only dream about getting. And it is a hot topic right now as the 49ers just extended Brock Purdy to a five-year, $265 million deal.
Jayden Daniels, in just his rookie year, has reinvigorated a fan base begging for a franchise quarterback to give them hope that they did not think was possible. This past season, he carried the Commanders to a 12-5 record, an NFC Championship Game appearance (their first since the 1991-92 season) and also earned himself the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award along the way.
Because of this, Daniels is going to get paid— and paid handsomely.
When will Jayden Daniels extension negotiations start?
The front office and Daniels will likely sit down to negotiate an extension following his fourth year in the NFL, which would be the offseason following the 2027-2028 NFL season. General Manager Adam Peters is almost certainly going to pick up Daniels’ fifth-year option to get one more season of below-market pay for a high-quality quarterback.
However, teams often want to finalize a deal after the fourth season to have plenty of time to negotiate.
Act fast or pay for it later
This past season’s rookie class saw a plethora of really good quarterback play. Quarterbacks like Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and of course Daniels all shined in their rookie season. This does not even include J.J. McCarthy, who was injured in the preseason.
This matters because all of these talented quarterbacks will be up for extensions at the same time. History has shown that acting quickly and paying your quarterback early is beneficial because the longer a team waits, the more time other quarterbacks have to sign long-term deals, driving up the price. The Commanders’ front office would be wise to pay Daniels as soon as they can before the other teams can put pen to paper with their franchise quarterback.
Salary cap impacts
The NFL is a wildly successful business, and because of this, the salary cap will be much different than it is today, at $279.2 million compared to when Daniels signs his second contract.
Since 2011, the NFL’s salary cap has increased by an average of 6.3 percent per year. Using that annual average growth, the NFL’s salary cap is expected to be approximately $358.2 million in 2029, when Daniels’ extension is factored into the Commanders’ cap space.
Why does this matter?
With a growing salary cap, the larger the deal Daniels is going to sign. Just 10 years ago, Drew Brees had the largest cap hit at the time at $23.8 million that year (16.61 percent of the team’s cap space). Using that percentage, a rough equivalent in today’s NFL would be Matthew Stafford, whose $47.46 million cap hit takes up 17 percent of the Rams’ cap percentage.
What’s it going to cost?
That is the big question. How much will Jayden Daniels make? Currently, the highest-paid player in the NFL is Dak Prescott, who signed a four-year, $240 million deal last September. That averages to $60 million a year.
Based on the salary cap increase and Daniels being a better and younger player than Prescott, it should not shock Commanders fans when they see Daniels sign a deal where he earns $75-85 million a year on average.
The crazy thing is that he absolutely deserves it. What he has done for the city and its fans in just one season can not be quantified. He has brought relevance back to Washington football and has given the franchise something it has lacked for decades: a true face of the team.
While a figure like $80 million a year might seem jarring today, the NFL’s economic landscape is changing quickly. With a projected salary cap of nearly $360 million in 2029, $80 million a year might not just be reasonable, but a bargain for a player like JaydenDaniels.
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