The All-Star Break is nearly upon us, which means the season is almost two-thirds complete. As such, the standings and the playoff bracket are finally beginning to take shape. While the matchups are still unknown, there’s no harm in estimating what potential first-round matchups could look like.
As of now, the Denver Nuggets are the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. In all honesty, it is unlikely that they pass the Thunder or Spurs to advance into the top-2. Nevertheless, with as packed as the West is, the Nuggets have plenty of exciting first-round matchup options in store for them.
Nuggets vs. Lakers
If the season ended right now, Denver would be taking on the Los Angeles Lakers. This is great news for Nuggets fans, as they have fared very well against the Lakers in the playoffs in recent years.
Denver beat them in 2023 and in 2024, winning eight out of nine across both series. Additionally, Nuggets fans know that Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic tend to hit another gear against the Lakers. Across those two matchups, Jokic averaged a 28-point triple-double while Murray averaged 27 points and hit two game-winners.
The matchup may be slightly different, though, now that the Lakers have six-time All-Star Luka Doncic. Not to mention Austin Reaves, who’s really come into his own, averaging 26 points a night.
However, as great as those two are offensively, they are not known for their defensive prowess. Jamal Murray is having the best season of his career by far, and he’s also known as one of, if not the, greatest playoff risers of all time. When coach J.J. Redick puts Doncic and Reaves in the backcourt, Murray should be able to tear them apart.
Also, for years, the Lakers have been searching for a big man who could hold the likes of Nikola Jokic. Anthony Davis has done as good a job as anyone, but he’s long gone now. In this hypothetical matchup, it would likely be Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes trying to guard the best offensive player in the league.
Needless to say, that would not end well for Los Angeles. Combine Jokic and Murray’s star power with Denver’s dominance against the Lakers, and LeBron, Doncic, and company are looking at a very long series.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
As of now, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 6 seed. This matchup does not bode nearly as well for the Nuggets.
The two squared off in the 2024 Western Conference Semifinals, and the Timberwolves won in seven. Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels had Jamal Murray in a straitjacket all series. Additionally, while Jokic will always find a way to get his, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are as good a defensive center duo as there is in the league.
Both teams have changed since that series, though. Minnesota no longer has Mike Conley or Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have made some big changes. The addition of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas has shored up their bench immensely. Meanwhile, players like Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, and Christian Braun have taken massive offensive strides.
Between Gordon, Braun, Brown and Watson, the Nuggets finally have defensive options to put on Edwards. Giving him different looks will throw him off, and that luxury is simply one that Denver did not have two years ago. In all honesty, though, this series could go either way. Both teams are very evenly matched, and they both have what it takes to make a deep run this year.
Nuggets vs. Suns
After the No. 6 seed, projecting the playoff bracket gets a little messy with the Play-In Tournament. However, the Suns seem like a realistic opponent to leapfrog out of it.
As of now, the Suns are the No. 7 seed, sitting a full four games ahead of the Golden State Warriors at No. 8.
These two teams faced off back in 2023, with Denver winning in six en route to their championship. Some say the Nuggets roster is better now than it was then. Others might disagree. What’s more important, though, is that Phoenix is substantially worse.
Devin Booker is a tremendous scorer with the ability to take over any game. However, that’s where any advantages that the Suns might have end.
To get to the No. 7 seed, they’ve had to rely on very overachieving seasons from Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen. Brooks is averaging 21 point per game, a full seven points more than last season. Meanwhile, Allen is averaging 17 per game, which is also about seven more than his previous season.
Brooks and Allen are very solid two-way players who are having tremendous years. However, come playoff time, they likely will not strike much fear in the hearts of the Nuggets.
In the last few years, Jokic, Murray, and the rest have taken down countless superstars. They’ve beaten James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kevin Durant, just to name a few. A betting man would not predict Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen to be the ones to take down Denver.
Denver’s Playoff Outlook
All things considered, the Nuggets are in a pretty good spot as they approach the playoffs. They’ve managed to put themselves squarely in the postseason picture despite dealing with countless injuries from their top players. Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, and others have stepped up in a big way. Now all they need is for Gordon and Johnson to make their way back into the lineup.
When it comes to the playoffs, the two biggest factors are playoff experience and depth. Few teams have both. Denver is one of those teams. The Lakers lack depth, the Rockets and Spurs lack experience, and frankly, the Suns lack both. Thus, if the Nuggets do go down before the Finals, it will likely be at the hands of Minnesota or the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Everyone saw over the last two years what the Thunder are capable of. The same can be said about the Timberwolves, who reached the Conference Finals in each of the last two years.
The West is tough this year. Everyone in the top eight could pose a true threat. However, the Nuggets have the veteran leadership, bench production, and talent to make a real run.
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