It’s Now or Never for Doc Rivers to Do His Job

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results” – Albert Einstein.

In the weeks leading up to the Playoffs, Bucks fans have watched in helpless frustration as lineup combinations, most notably the starting lineup, underperformed mightily.

A casual onlooker might’ve seen the Bucks’ eight straight wins leading into the postseason and assumed the team had finally turned the corner. But this couldn’t be further from the truth. Instead, it was Giannis’ sheer dominance and the saving grace of an exceptional bench unit that allowed the Bucks to string together this win streak.

But they were only red hot on paper.

In fact, most of Bucks Nation was calling for a change in the starting lineup long before the Playoffs. Whether it be Kuzma’s lack of shooting and clunky offensive fit or Brook’s matchup issues on transition-heavy teams and stretch bigs, the lineup around Giannis has had some glaring problems for quite some time.

And as far as Bucks fans can tell, Doc Rivers hasn’t even noticed.

The Brook Dilemma

Brook is the ultimate matchup player.

The problem is that there isn’t a matchup against the Pacers that works in his favor.

At this point in his career, Lopez getting shot off the floor against a team like the Pacers isn’t a possibility—it’s an inevitability. He simply no longer possesses the speed necessary to cover ground against a team that moves the ball as quickly as the Pacers. The ball is flying around the perimeter and downcourt in transition, and Brook can only watch hopelessly as players like Nesmith, Turner, Nembhard, and Mathurin get wide-open threes and layups.

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Doc Rivers is getting coached out of the gym by a relatively simple scheme: rapid ball movement and maximizing transition opportunities. There’s no way for Doc to play Brook in a way that addresses these issues. So the only solution that remains is to play him very little.

Kuz Quandary and Prince Problem

The Bucks’ wings on paper should make for a great defense.

They are tall, long, and relatively quick players who have decent switchability. But unfortunately for the Bucks, the game isn’t played on paper. In reality, both of them get lost frequently in the halfcourt, giving up a myriad of open looks.

If the defensive shortcomings aren’t enough, neither of them has provided a lick of offense either. It’s no mystery that Prince doesn’t give you much outside of spot-up shooting. But spot-up shooting, especially from the corner, is the one thing he’s exceptionally good at. Prince was second in the entire league this season in 3P% among players with at least 200 attempts.

But the Playoffs have been a different story. Prince and Kuzma have combined to be just 2/9 from behind the arc so far in the Pacers series. Kuz’s quintuple-zero in Game 1 was just icing on the cake of a disastrous performance from the Bucks’ starting unit.

If they give up open shots on defense and can’t hit their shots, neither Prince nor Kuz provides enough value as playmakers to warrant their spots in the starting lineup. AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Kevin Porter Jr. are all more active defenders on the ball, disrupt the flow of the offense, and can rotate faster. Additionally, these are all guys who can change the game for you quickly if they get a hot hand.

What’s the Answer?

For starters, Brook Lopez’s minutes need to be significantly reduced if the Bucks have any chance of winning the series.

So, who should take Brook’s spot in the starting lineup? There are really only two solutions. The first solution is to play Giannis at the five in a 3-guard small-ball lineup. AJ Green has played exceptionally well on the floor with both Dame and Giannis, and a lineup with those three together has a ton of spacing to create the driving lanes for Giannis.

The second solution is to start Jericho Sims at the center spot. It may sound wild to start a guy in a playoff series who has never played major minutes at any point in his young career. But desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Bucks are about as desperate as it gets.

Albeit a small sample size, Sims has the highest plus-minus of any Bucks player through two playoff games. He offers a ton more switchability on the perimeter than Lopez, as well as the ability to guard the fast break. Even if Sims doesn’t start, he’s the only center on the team who can provide some formidable defense in transition. That alone should be a cause for Doc to increase his minutes.

An uptick in Sims minutes, along with inserting AJ Green and/or Gary Trent Jr. into the starting lineup, are the bare minimum lineup changes that would be obvious to almost every other head coach. You need to get guys on the floor who can rotate to open shooters, run in transition, and knock down open shots to open up driving lanes for Giannis.

Whatever it is, Doc has to do SOMETHING.

If Doc Rivers sits back and watches Rick Carlisle dismantle a starting lineup and rotations that make zero sense schematically, he is saying one of two things: He doesn’t care, or he doesn’t understand the game of basketball. Either one of those is grounds for newly extended Jon Horst to can him as soon as the series is over.

The choice is yours, Doc.