Portland fought its way into the inaugural NBA play-in match after going 6-2 in the seeding games. That Saturday thriller ended in a 126-122 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies, solidifying a postseason berth for the Blazers.
Now, a matchup with the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers awaits them, and many think the revamped Blazers can pull off an upset bid. Portland has the momentum and talent to make this first-round series an action-filled classic. But don’t be fooled, the Blazers are at a disadvantage in many areas on the court, and their time in Orlando will soon be coming to an end.
The Lakers have their flaws, too, however. They struggled from beyond the arc in a few seeding games and were one the lowest scoring teams in the bubble—something we can’t ignore. They’re also no powerhouse team that can run through the West like the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors which went 16-1 en route to a title.
Nevertheless, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be leading a well-rested Lakers group to prove disbelievers wrong. On the flip side, unanimous bubble MVP Damian Lillard will rally his underdog Blazers to continue their historic run.
Let’s evaluate what should be an energetic and galvanizing meeting between the respective No. 1 and No. 8 seeds in the Western Conference. More importantly, let’s consider why Portland is in over its head despite riding a hot streak entering the postseason.
Superstar advantage: Lakers
Lillard took the NBA bubble by storm averaging 37.6 points and 9.6 assists in eight games. He scored 51, 61 and 42 in Portland’s final three seeding games, and was scorching so much he was getting the ultimate shooter’s touch in crunch time.
His backcourt partner CJ McCollum finished strong in the final few seeding games and is a nightly 30-point threat. The two mid-major products make up one of the best backcourts in the league and will give the Lakers guards major problems. Lillard will likely average between 30-35 a game and will draw double-teams as early as game one. But he and McCollum are the third and fourth best players, respectively, in this series.
The top-two guys are James and Davis, and if you think differently, well, it’s time to think differently. The former is arguably the best player in the league while the latter is a top-seven player and arguably the Defensive Player of the Year.
James will presumably be guarded by his fellow 2003 draft class brother, Carmelo Anthony. Let’s keep it real—that’s BBQ chicken for the king. Melo has had an incredible bubble run, not to mention, a bounce-back season after being out of the league. He’s come into Orlando leaner, defensively sound and has been extremely clutch. But he will struggle to stay in front LeBron who’s an MVP candidate in 17th season and is 13-0 in the first round of the playoffs in his career.
Davis, on the other hand, has been dominant this season. He’s averaged 26.1 points and 9.3 rebounds on 50 percent shooting including 2.4 blocks and 1.4 steals. And while he’s not new to the postseason, he’s never played alongside someone of James’ caliber of talent or experience. He’s never had a legitimate chance to win a championship until this season either.
Portland’s front court, on the other hand, is very respectable. Jusuf Nurkic has been instrumental to the Blazers’ success since the season restarted. He’s posting 17.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and four assists so far in the bubble. His front court mate Hassan Whiteside is recording 15.5 points, 13.5 rebounds and a league-leading 2.9 blocks a night. But both will struggle to stop Davis, however, especially with Zach Collins ruled out for game one.
The Brow’s skillset is unlike any other big man in the game. He handles the ball and knocks down step-back jumpers like a guard. Davis also faces up in the post and hits threes at a 33 percent clip—not bad for a 6-foot-10 forward.
Defensive advantage: Lakers
The absence of Avery Bradley left the Lakers without their best perimeter defender in the bubble. Now, Alex Caruso, Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will rotate in guarding Lillard and McCollum, and when asked, Caruso admitted it will be tough to stop them.
“It’s definitely a team effort. We’re not going to tell anybody on our team, one-on-one go guard that guy 94-feet and hold them to 20 points because I don’t think that’s very realistic,” Caruso said. “[But] me, KCP, Danny…we’re going to do our best to just kind of pester them. Try to keep them off rhythm as much as possible because we know what they’re both capable of if you let them get into a rhythm.”
Caruso, a 6-foot-5 combo guard, has been special defensively in Orlando. He takes charges, moves his feet, helps off the ball, reads passing lanes and rotates. I’m not saying he’s an amazing defender, rather an underrated one. Lillard will give him any Lakers player hell, regardless. But Portland will also struggle do defend top players.
We’re going to see a matchup between James and Anthony at the small forward position, and Melo is going to need all the help he can get. And please, Blazers fans, don’t tell me Mario Hezonja is the “LeBron stopper” because we all know there’s no such thing. Just like there’s no “Dame stopper.” But the Blazers will have to grind like never before, as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
They allowed nearly 124 PPG in their eight seeding games, and for the season, they rank 26th in points allowed per game at 116.2, per Team Rankings. Portland also struggles to rebound defensively at times and lacks the capability to stop the pick-and-roll, an offensive strength for the Lakers.
Los Angeles hasn’t exactly clamped its opponents in Orlando thus far. But unlike Portland, the Lakers weren’t playing for anything after locking up the No. 1 seed following their Aug. 3 victory over the Jazz. LA ranks fourth in points allowed per game (107.6) for the season, for the record. Any games after the Utah win were meant for conditioning, giving guys playing time and solidifying a rotation.
James and Davis did see limited minutes in the final five games, after all, with James sitting two games and Davis one. Their fresh legs are one reason why I think this will be a short series.
Prediction: Lakers in 5
Portland is a determined group and won’t back down from any team, no matter who’s on the other side. Lillard, McCollum and Gary Trent Jr. make for a trifecta of guard play and shooting while the Blazers’ bigs hold down the front court. They still only take one game from the Lakers, however.
LA has more depth and superior coaching. It is much more defensively sound than Portland and can also run up the score despite lacking consistent outside shooting.
The Blazers will have probably have one game in which their backcourt combines for 80-90 points. That will get them a win. The Lakers will adjust, however, because that’s what good teams do. Frank Vogel will throw double-teams at Lillard as early as game one Tuesday night, forcing someone else to beat them.
Rotating on defense will be pivotal for Vogel’s group if they send multiple defenders at Lillard. But with Davis anchoring the defense, the Lakers should be fine.
It’s playoff time, Lakers fans. And with LeBron James leading this team, coming in with fresh legs and Davis by his side, it should be a short but promising first-round. This team is being belittled by many media members, and the Lakers are well aware and ready to prove doubters wrong.
(all stats via Basketball-Reference, ESPN and Team Rankings)
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