They have to get there first, before anything.
However, there’s now some breathing room between the Dallas Mavericks and the cutoff of doom— aka the 10th seed.
Everything that has happened this year suggests Dallas should be in the doldrums, fighting for rights to Cooper Flagg in the NBA Draft.
Yet, here we are. The Mavs sit one game behind the Sacramento Kings and 2.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns in the race for the Play-In. Many don’t know how, and many may never understand, but with only a few games to play, it’s time to raise the question:
Can the Mavs make noise come playoff time?
Let’s Think (Play-In) Positively for a Second
There are more reasons than one may think that the Mavericks could make some serious noise in the postseason. While it may be a far cry from the Finals team of a season ago, Dallas still has some things going for them.
A Star for a Star
Trading Luka Doncic may have shocked the world, but at least the Mavs received an elite player in return.
Anthony Davis isn’t just any big man— he’s one of the best two-way bigs in the sport. In his first showing for Dallas, he scored 26 points, snagged 16 boards, and had three blocks in only 31 minutes. In his last showing, he topped all of this— 34 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks against the Atlanta Hawks.
Davis isn’t just an outstanding player— he has a championship pedigree as well. He played a key part in the Lakers’ 2020 title run, averaging 25 and 10 on 67% TS. If he can find that stroke again for Dallas, they can do big things.
https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1907633583126360229
Defensive Monster
At the beginning of the season, the Mavs had Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving take turns dissecting defenses. With one in Purple and Gold and one done for the year with a torn ACL, the mentality has shifted.
Dallas hasn’t been able to show their full potential lately, but they have very solid defensive pieces: Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, and three very solid rim protectors in Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford.
That’s only a few of their contributors, too. They rank 14th in Defensive Rating over the last nine games, and that’s with some of the aforementioned players out with injury/load management.
The Great Wall of Dallas has all the material to cause fits in the playoffs, but they’ll need all that material available first. Luckily, things are trending in the right direction.
Health On The Rise
Perhaps the biggest win in all of this is that, at long last, Dallas is getting healthy.
There’s an argument to make that no team — in any sport, any year — has been bitten harder by the injury bug than the 2024-25 Dallas Mavericks. Everyone important to them was hurt. It was so bad, it almost cost them games via forfeit.
However, they’ve seemingly weathered the storm at last, and much-needed help can finally get on its way. Davis and Gafford have recently returned from injury, and Lively has returned from his stress fracture, looking good while doing it.
The best ability is availability, and the Mavs are trending towards max availability possible.
Mavs Have Plenty of Downsides, Of Course
Not everything is hunky-dory in Dallas, however. Some things can and will hold the Mavericks back if they aren’t arranged quickly.
Hard to (play) Guard
While the frontcourt play has been and will continue to have the potential to be amazing, the Mavs’ backcourt will raise some questions. Obviously, trying to replace both Luka and Kyrie would be a lofty task for anyone, but for the Mavs, it’s been especially lofty.
At first, Spencer Dinwiddie and Dante Exum ran starting guard duties for Dallas. However, Exum broke a bone in his left hand, putting him out indefinitely— a decree that more than likely means Exum won’t be seen again this year.
Brandon Williams signed a 10-day contract and showed out, earning a permanent spot on the team. Now, it’s him, Dinwiddie, and Jaden Hardy taking turns manning the backcourt.
By no means bad players, but just look at what other playoff/play-in teams sport for their guard rotations:
- Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Scotty Pippen Jr.
- Sacramento Kings: Keon Ellis, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, Markelle Fultz
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
There’s an All-Star in every one of those lineups, and two of them feature consensus elite players.
If Dallas wants to go somewhere, the guard play must be closer to that bar.
Matchup Nightmares
If the Play-In were to start today, the Mavericks would host the Kings at AAC. That is a dangerous, dangerous matchup.
Sacramento is very good at defending the paint and taking care of the ball— two things directly opposing the new-age Mavs. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are two guys who can get you buckets at any time, and they’ve got a decent cast around them.
The biggest focal point of the matchup, however? Domantas Sabonis vs. Anthony Davis. Sabonis is 10-4 against AD in his career and has had some of his career nights against him. Just this season, Sabonis went for 29/12/10 against him.
However, even if they pass that test, they’d have to play another Play-In game against either the Clippers or Grizzlies, which presents its own unique problems.
If they survive both of those matchups? The Oklahoma City Thunder await them— a matchup no one wants.
Mavericks Have Sneaky Edge Come Play-In
The Mavericks are definitely in the conversation for “most interesting playoff/play-in team” in the NBA.
If everything comes together — the bigs play smothering defense, the backcourt play rises to the occasion, and players like Christie, Washington and Marshall pull out more vintage performances — the Mavs could be a Cinderella story in disguise.
If things tear at the seams, we won’t see them after the Play-In.
Will the Dallas Mavericks settle for something in the middle?
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