Welcome to the “Watchability stakes” – a ranking of the weekly matchups ahead in the NFL. Games are tiered based on three factors: narrative, implications and general intrigue. You will be seeing The Lead’s NFL game watchability rankings at the start of the week to get you ready for football action.
The moment is finally here: the end of the 2024 regular season.
All 32 teams return to the field one final time before the playoffs officially begin a few weekends from now. While most of this year’s playoff picture is set, a few spots remain on the board, and seeding is still in play this week.
For context, here is the most up-to-date look at the current playoff bracket for both conferences heading into Week 18:
To simply who is guaranteed a playoff spot already, here is a quick breakdown:
- In the AFC, all but one team currently in the playoff picture (Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston and Los Angeles) have already earned their bids. KC (No. 1), Buffalo (No. 2) and Houston (No. 4) are all locked into their seeds already.
- Like the NFC, six of the seven playoff spots for the conference are all filled up, although seeding still needs to be finalized. Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Green Bay, Los Angeles and Washington will be in the playoffs no matter what. Philly (at the two-seed) sits as the only NFC team locked into its current seed.
Plenty of teams are already in, but only three already know their playoff seeding heading into Week 18. Several matchups ultimately determine what Wild Card weekend will look like, meaning now is the perfect time for the last time this regular season to preview this week’s NFL slate.
The Week 18 “watchability stakes” format will be slightly different. Considering we now know every single scenario under the sun for how the playoff picture could look, this week’s piece focuses mainly on those scenarios. That said, our weekly rankings will still appear at the bottom.
The playoff implications
The following teams will have something to play for this weekend, according to the playoff picture as it stands:
- Baltimore
- Pittsburgh
- Los Angeles (Chargers)
- Denver
- Miami
- Cincinnati
- Detroit
- Minnesota
- Washington
- Green Bay
- Tampa Bay
- Atlanta
In order based on the teams listed above, here is what each is playing for based on division, seeding and making the playoffs altogether.
Division
- AFC North: Baltimore wins the division if they win or tie in Week 18 or if Pittsburgh loses or ties to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh needs to win and Baltimore to lose to clinch the AFC North.
- NFC North: Easily the most consequential scenario on the board… and both teams in the mix will be playing against each other. Between Detroit and Minnesota, whoever wins this weekend against the other wins the NFC North. The loser falls to the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
- NFC South: Tampa Bay controls its own destiny. If they win or tie this weekend, they win the division. Atlanta needs to win and Tampa Bay to lose.
Seeding
- Los Angeles Chargers: playing for the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the AFC.
- Washington: playing for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.
- Green Bay: playing for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.
Playoff bid
- Denver: The Broncos, like the Bucs, control their own destiny for the seventh and final spot in the playoffs on the AFC side. A win or tie gets them in. If Denver loses, both Cincinnati and Miami would need to lose or tie in their games, respectively.
- Miami: The Dolphins will need some help. Miami needs to win and Denver must lose its final game.
- Cincinnati: The Bengals face the longest odds based on all the scenarios to make the playoffs. Cincinnati must win, Denver must lose outright and Miami must either tie or lose.
Week 18 game rankings
With all that playoff context now in mind, those implications reflect the most in this week’s game rankings. Tier 1 through Tier 3 include games involving all these teams mentioned under the “Playoff Implications” section. The next tier includes the playoff teams, who are pretty much locked in. Tier 5 features everyone else.
For the last time in 2024, here are your Week 18 game rankings:
First Tier: Absolutely can’t miss
- Minnesota Vikings (14-2) versus Detroit Lions (14-2) – Sunday @ 8:20 pm EST
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) versus Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – Saturday @ 8 pm EST
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) versus Denver Broncos (9-7) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST
Second Tier: This could be fun
- Miami Dolphins (8-8) versus New York Jets (4-12) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST
- Carolina Panthers (4-12) versus Atlanta Falcons (8-8) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- New Orleans Saints (5-11) versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- Cleveland Browns (3-13) versus Baltimore Ravens (11-5) – Saturday @ 4:30 pm EST
Third Tier: Decent floor, high upside
- Washington Commanders (11-5) versus Dallas Cowboys (7-9) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7) versus Los Angeles Rams (10-6) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST
Fourth Tier: It could always be worse
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) versus Las Vegas Raiders (4-12) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST
- Chicago Bears (4-12) versus Green Bay Packers (11-5) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- Buffalo Bills (13-3) versus New England Patriots (3-13) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- Houston Texans (9-7) versus Tennessee Titans (3-13) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
- New York Giants (3-13) versus Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
Fifth Tier: Snooze fest
- San Francisco 49ers (6-10) versus Arizona Cardinals (7-9) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) versus Indianapolis Colts (7-9) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST
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