The NFC has been a step behind the AFC for a few seasons, but there are some sleeping giants (not in New York) that are ready to stake their claim in the league.
With plenty of new faces ready to steal the NFC title from the San Francisco 49ers, it’s imperative that these contenders come flying out the gates and make their presence felt.
So, to help you figure out who is starting the season off on the right foot, here’s one thing to pay attention to for every team in the NFC in Week 1:
(The statistics provided can be found in Warren Sharp’s 2024 NFL preview)
RELATED: What to Watch For in the AFC for Week 1.
NFC East
Commanders
The Commanders had the league’s worst havoc defense last year, meaning they had very few sacks and takeaways. The Cowboys defense meanwhile, led by Dan Quinn, was the best havoc defense in the league the past two seasons.
While all eyes will be on how Jayden Daniels commands (get it) this offense, take note of whether or not this defense full of new pieces can generate a few takeaways and put some pressure on Baker Mayfield in Week 1.
Cowboys
The Cowboys found their wins last season when they grabbed a quick lead. In the middle of the year they had seven straight games where they scored 17 points in the first half. The only other team since 1970 to do that was the undefeated 2007 Patriots.
If Dallas comes out and puts up points in the first half on what should be a stout Browns defense, they will likely come away with a win (11-1 when leading at halftime, 1-4 when they weren’t), and will show that Mike McCarthy still has some gas left in the tank.
Eagles
In 2022, the Eagles had the fastest-paced first-half offense in the NFL (25.9 seconds per play (Sharp, 458). In 2023, they dropped to 25th (29.7 seconds). With Kellen Moore taking over as the new offensive coordinator, the Eagles should get back to up-tempo and aggressive play calling.
If the Eagles come out lethargic, however, spending too much time in the huddle and using very little hurry-up, then it may mean that Nick Sirianni still has his hands all over the offense, and that is not a good sign for Eagles fans.
Giants
The Giants have the roster equivalent of vomit. I actually get nauseous when I look at it. The one group that does have talent is the Front 7. Bobby Okereke, D-Law, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibedouex are all good players that can hopefully provide a starting point for this team to build on this season. If they can’t generate any meaningful pressure on Sam Darnold of all QBs, then this team really truly is dead.
NFC North
Bears
The Bears offense wasn’t actually that bad last season when Justin Fields was able to avoid getting sacked. A lot of that was on him, holding onto the ball too long and trying to make magic happen, but that’s a tendency that Caleb also has as well. The difference is that Caleb is arguably at his best when throwing out of structure.
If Caleb can avoid taking a sack and the Bears O-Line can avoid bad holding penalties, it’ll be a massive step up from an offense that shot itself in the foot drive after drive last season.
Lions
It is all about the passing defense for the Lions this year. It was their only weakness last year, but it was a big one. They would get gashed through the air routinely by good passing teams. The Lions are just as aware as anyone though because they added four new corners to this roster (Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.)
If the Lions want to take the final step into the truly elite tier of teams, they’ll need their new secondary to gel. Their Week 1 matchup against the Rams will be a great test out the gate.
Packers
The Packers were a tale of two teams between the first and second halves of the season. A big key to their offensive success was their ability to generate explosive plays on drives. From Weeks 1-9 they were last in first-half drives that featured an explosive play (20.9%, definition: pass of more than 20 yards, run of more than 10 yards). From Week 10 on, they jumped to 3rd at 59.2% (Sharp, 247).
If the Packers are popping off for big plays at least once a drive, then it’s clear that they’re picking up right where they left off last postseason.
Vikings
A lot of people think Sam Darnold could have a Baker-esque resurgence in Minnesota, and the reason why is that Kevin O’Connell knows how to make things easy on his QBs. Nick Mullens ranked No. 1 in the league last year in EPA (+0.25) on early downs (Sharp, 384).
Part of the reason it’s so easy is that O’Connell uses play action at the highest rate in the league, as well as the ninth-highest rate of motion (Sharp, 384). Watch for how much of this the Vikings use out the gate, and how Darnold performs when these fakeouts occur compared to when they don’t.
NFC South
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were the benefactor of more luck than any other team last season. They were ninth in fumble luck, 10th in health and 3rd in field goal luck. They also performed well on third and fourth down (#30 in EPA/att and success rate on Early Downs Q1-3, #6 and #10 on third and fourth downs (Sharp, 518). Baker clutched up in big moments to pull out big wins all the way to the Divisional Round.
Watch and see how Baker does on third and fourth down in this first game against the Commanders. If he succeeds, or if they avoid those downs altogether, then maybe last season wasn’t that much of a fluke.
Falcons
Despite adding Bijan Robinson in the draft last year, the Falcons’ rushing attack was worse than it was in 2022. Plain and simple. They went from #7 in EPA/rush to #26 (Sharp, 95). Not only that, but the offense actually performed better over the course of the year when Bijan was off the field.
Ridder was awful, and, although I do worry somewhat about Kirk, the passing attack will improve no doubt, but if Bijan doesn’t put up a good performance in the first game against Pittsburgh, I am waiving a yellow flag early.
Panthers
Dave Canales said in the summer of 2023 about the Bucs run game: “The intent of our offense is to run the ball. I’m excited to prove how stubborn we can be in running the ball.” He finished that statement off with a claim that the Bucs would average at least 1 more yard per carry than in 2022 (Sharp, 144).
But the Bucs’ run game got worse, and it was actually dead last in the league in yards per carry for the second year in a row. I’m curious to see if Dave will come out sticking to his guns and predictably run the ball on first downs, or if he’s learned a little something and wants to give Bryce Young some actual opportunities to succeed.
Saints
The Saints have been thinking inside the box for a while now. The formula to trot three wide receivers out there, run the ball to Kamara on first down, who can’t break off long runs anymore, and try your hand at a third and long has been their bread and butter.
If new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has a pulse on the situation, the Saints will mix in more 2 TE sets and motion to try and spice things up. If the Saints run back their vanilla offensive strategy, they will crumble like a beignet.
NFC West
49ers
Beyond just the simple “how healthy does Christian McCaffrey look” and “is Brandon Aiyuk on the field”, there are a lot of questions as to how this new look defense for San Francisco will gel.
Bosa and Hargrave will no longer have Chase Young, Arik Armstead or Randy Gregory alongside them, and instead will be lined up with Maliek Collins, Leonard Floyd, and Yetur Gross-Matos. While those aren’t necessarily downgrades, the matchup between the Niners new D-Line and Jets new O-Line will be exciting to watch.
Cardinals
The Cardinals offense was actually good in the second half of the season when Kyler returned. The run game was smooth and they were efficient passing to TEs. If they want to take the next step to being an elite offense, however, Kyler will need to get much better at throwing the deep ball.
In each of the past two years, Murray was top five in EPA/att, passer rating and completion percentage on throws 10 yards and in, and no higher than 40th in any of those categories on throws over 10 yards down the field (Sharp, 83). Let’s see if the addition of Marvin Harrison helps Murray find some deep ball success.
Rams
All eyes are on Kyren Williams in Week 1. He won a perennially tough-to-figure-out backfield, but the Rams played against the easiest schedule of run defenses last season (Sharp, 355).
His first matchup is against the Lions, who already had a top-three rushing defense and added DJ Reader, who is a monster against the run. If Kyren can get out to a hot start against Detroit, fantasy owners and Rams fans alike can rejoice.
Seahawks
Geno Smith has been a much better passer when the Seahawks used play-action (0.35 EPA/att to +0.07 (Sharp, 505)). He was No. 1 in efficiency in the league last year using play action in fact.
The Seahawks only used play action at the 21st highest rate in the league last year. With new OC Ryan Grubb taking over, hopefully he sees this trend for Geno and leans into more play action to get Seattle’s offense going. It should help with their O-Line issues too.
References:
Sharp, W. & Sharp Football Analysis. (2024). 2024 Football Preview [E-book]
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