There’s a semi-joking, semi-deadly serious sentiment among baseball fans that there will be no 2027 season of Major League Baseball. It would be over yet another conflict between the league’s owners and players, this time determining the sport’s very future.
MLB’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 pm. Once again, it’ll be time for the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball – represented by the commissioner’s office, owners and labor negotiators – to deliberate on the governance of baseball.
The CBA is the single most important document in the league, determining everything from labor arrangements to the postseason format. It was last updated in the winter of 2022, which saw a 99-day work stoppage over player compensation and salary structure. For 99 days, all business and player-related activities halted, meaning no free agent deals or even simple roster transactions took place.
The issues from 2022 now seem bitterly insignificant compared to what this offseason holds. For the first time in 32 years, the league is pushing for a hard salary cap on each team’s total payroll. The last time it was proposed, a World Series got canceled.
MLB’s Forbidden Salary Cap
In 1994, the owners first submitted a salary cap to restore “economic sanity” within the league. The players responded with a strike in August that lasted through April, nullifying the season and severely damaging Major League Baseball along the way. While it was taxing on the owners and players themselves, the ultimate cost fell on the fans.
The league could once again plead economic sanity this December, potentially with more evidence than 32 years ago. Just since the last CBA update, six of the 10 largest contracts in MLB history have been signed, including two $700+ million deals.
In response to the exponential spending, the league proposed a firm cap of $245.3 million in total payroll. If that were implemented in 2026, six clubs would be left with money to shed like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
The salary cap was simultaneously proposed with a hard floor of $171.2 million, leaving nine teams with checks to sign. Interestingly enough, as of June 10, four of those clubs hold playoff spots, with an additional three being within one game or better of one. That position is one the Players Association could capitalize on, with their initial proposal a polar opposite of the owners.
The Player’s Rebuttal
The MLBPA introduced a Competitive Integrity Tax in their initial submission, which would penalize teams for not spending over $150 million. Thirteen teams would fall in that bracket as of 2026.
The Players Association also offered massive jumps in minimum player salaries and the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold. The proposed minimum salary would climb from $780,000 to $1.5 million, the largest increase in a single offseason by a long shot.
Starting at a lone $6,000 with the first CBA in 1967, the most the players’ minimum salary grew in an offseason was $130,000 after the last CBA update. This time around, the players are aiming to double it.
Secondly, they offered a $56 million raise to the CBT threshold, also the biggest increase, also by a long shot. The CBT is baseball’s luxury tax, and raising that line to $300M would tax less high-market teams. Only the Mets and Dodgers currently sit above that mark.
“The MLBPA’s proposal maintains the game’s current financial structure with significant changes,” Jeff Passan wrote on X. “[It] aims to increase money given to lower-revenue teams … many more dollars going to players, too.”
The True Losers
As aforementioned, from 1994, all of these initial reports leave one party with the most dread: the fans. It was never a conversation around if the owners would push for another salary cap; it was when.
Major League Baseball is entering a climax of positive fan attention and negative payroll disparities. The league is seeing the highest viewership in nearly a decade with ever-growing international engagement. Right now is not the time to turn on the fans, yet it’s inevitable.
No collective bargaining negotiations that have taken place over an offseason have resulted in cancelled games. MLB commissioner Robert Manfred has already voiced concerns about an impending lockout. Both sides want completely different things, and neither is seeking to budge.
There’s a strong chance that once December comes, the baseball community will have absolutely nothing to talk about besides CBA negotiations for months on end.
So, for now, enjoy the sport while it’s there to be enjoyed.
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