Ten years ago, on a crisp February evening, two armies went to battle in a war of attrition for the ages.
A young Seahawks team looking to become the second repeat champions since the turn of the century faced off against an evil empire, the New England Patriots.
The two teams battle back and forth until there is only one infinitesimal yard to go, 26 seconds on the clock, and one timeout left.
Russell Wilson drops back to pass and, in the blink of an eye, throws an interception that seals Malcolm Butler in football immortality and quenches the Seahawks dynasty. The TV quickly pans to Pete Carroll’s blank thousand-yard stare, representing the emotions of all Seattle fans.
Only seconds after the game ended, the ensuing narrative became five words that still haunt the back of my and many others’ heads: “Should have run the ball.” These words have followed us for ten years when old replays come up or when other fans taunt us.
That makes sense, right? Marshawn Lynch, a physical runner at the peak of his career who had just gotten four yards, could have easily gotten another. It’s the obvious choice. What a stupid play call from Pete Carroll.
Wrong.
Many NFL fans have become prone to outcome bias, which occurs when people judge a decision based on its outcome, not the original quality of the decision. While the result of the fateful interception was unlucky, it remains an excellent play call from Pete Carroll.
Had Butler not gotten a good jump off the line or had Wilson targeted Ricardo Lockette’s back shoulder, we would be here ten years later celebrating Carroll for etching the Seahawks into Super Bowl history.
Ultimately, football is a game of risk management. You always have to have a contingency plan to succeed. Marshawn Lynch only converted ~50% of his carries inside the two-yard line for touchdowns that season. The Seahawks were also lined up in the shotgun, and the Patriots had eight defenders on the line ready to make a play. When people discuss this play in retrospect, many act like it was a guarantee. While Marshawn Lynch was an incredible player, this isn’t true.
Had Lynch been stopped, the Seahawks would have been forced to take their last timeout, and it would have been third down. This would have forced the Seahawks into obvious passing territory because a run would risk time expiring.
Everyone on the planet, from people watching at home to the defenders on the field, thought the ball was going to Lynch.
But Carroll saw all of this. This is his genius.
If they throw the ball on second down, not only do they catch the Patriots off guard, but if the pass falls incomplete, they don’t have to burn a timeout and can save it for another run play. So he dialed up a high percentage slant route to Lockette.
In 2014, quarterbacks attempted 109 passes from the one-yard line. 108 resulted in touchdowns or incompletions. 1 resulted in an interception. That’s a 0.8% chance of occurring and a stat that was 0 for 108 before Wilson dropped back on that fateful play.
The Seahawks made the right decision to throw the ball. They managed risk, hedged an advantage, and predicated an attack on the element of surprise.
Carroll was always authentic in his philosophy and coaching style. He prided himself on his ability to take risks and make difficult decisions with courage, which often resulted in the Seahawks’ success.
Even throughout that game, Carroll drew up plays to unknown receiver Chris Matthews, leveraging his height advantage against the smaller Patriots cornerbacks. He simply didn’t care about conventional wisdom.
That day, Pete Carroll found the definition of living and dying by the sword. But he stayed true to his values and his authentic self to the bitter end.
Leave a comment