The Lead’s Mac Pham contributed to this article.
The AFC is as strong as ever. The usual suspects are there, but new faces aim for the crown. Which of the AFC’s seven delegates has the best chance of representing them in the Super Bowl?
Denver Broncos
The last time the Denver Broncos made the playoffs, dabbing and fidget spinners were in fashion.
It’s been a long climb back to the top, but through several key draft acquisitions and finding the coach to put it all together, the Broncos are back playing meaningful January football. Sean Payton’s second year as Denver’s head coach has seen him put together a top-10 scoring offense, scoring 25 points per game. They’re complemented by a defense that only allows 18.3 PPG, has the most sacks in football with 63, and has two players up for Defensive Player of the Year in Pat Surtain and Nik Bonitto.
Here, the Broncos are in zone coverage. Surtain takes the hitch route away, uses his eyes to read the corner route, and accelerates to intercept the pass. Surtain’s excellence takes two routes away in one play.
Denver’s real problem lies with their experience. Payton’s presence will certainly be a massive boost, but most of this roster hasn’t played in postseason action. Their most important players — Surtain, Bonitto, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix — are especially inexperienced in playoff scenarios. To hold water against the Bills, Payton must devise a game plan that doesn’t overload his rookie QB and those around him.
- Ceiling: A gigantic upset in Buffalo followed by a wire-to-wire loss at Arrowhead.
- Floor: A Sunday flameout.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin has the Steelers humming again.
Making their second straight playoff appearance, the Steelers go about things how they seemingly always do— running the ball and playing shutdown defense. Their rushing attack is just outside the top 10, averaging 127.4 rushing YPG. Meanwhile, their defense excels at taking the ball away, sharing the takeaway title with the Minnesota Vikings with 33 on the year. They’ll have to lean on these characteristics early and often.
Here’s the Steelers’ zone defense forcing a takeaway. Three defenders immediately close on the pass where Patrick Queen makes it an air-tight window, and Beanie Bishop picks it off.
Now, what the Steelers lack is an air attack— a consistent one, that is.
There are outside threats in George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth that can hurt defenses, but the consistency of those threats, especially Pickens, is all over the place. That leads to having the 27th-best passing attack, averaging 192.4 YPG through the air. They also have a problem protecting the passer, giving up a sack on 8.94% of their snaps. That’s the fifth-worst and second-worst among playoff teams. They are also inefficient in the red zone, only scoring a touchdown on 48.21% of their drives— fourth worst in football.
- Ceiling: Grinding out a victory against Baltimore, then succumbing to the KC juggernaut.
- Floor: A first-round flameout.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been freed from the Brandon Staley experience and are back to contending.
Jim Harbaugh returned to the NFL off the heels of winning a national championship and has the Chargers powered up and ready for January football. The biggest factor behind their success is the turnaround of their defense. Last year, the Chargers gave up 23.4 PPG, which ranked 23rd in the league. This year, they’re the best scoring defense in the league, giving up 17.7 PPG. They also possess the best red-zone defense, only giving up red-zone TDs 45% of the time.
The Chargers deploy a three-man rush with Dalyan Henley used as a quarterback spy. This allows the Chargers to have seven defenders in coverage while Joey Bosa navigates the pass rush to sack Patrick Mahomes as soon as he steps up.
The question will be whether the offense shows up. Justin Herbert and company have combined for 293.3 YPG through the air in the last three games, but their season average of 213.3 is in the bottom half of the league. The rushing attack hasn’t been much help either, as they’re only averaging 4.1 YPC – good for 24th in football.
Can the Chargers play complementary football? They’ll need it to make a deep run.
- Ceiling: A sneaky AFC Title birth on the back of their defense.
- Floor: A surprise elimination in Houston.
Houston Texans
Last year, the Houston Texans played the role the Commanders find themselves in right now.
They were the breakout team that turned heads with elite play from their rookie QB. This year, however, their situation is more similar to that of the LA Rams. They’ve taken advantage of a weak AFC South and come out on top with no glaring strengths in their game.
Here, Mario Edwards goes directly into a bull rush on the left guard. He gets his hands low, then high to anticipate a pass, and he gets deep into the backfield enough to sack the quarterback.
https://twitter.com/TexansNationCP/status/1875993222541128096
They are quite good at a few things. For example, only three teams get after the QB better than the Texans. They’ve tallied 49 sacks this year and generated a sack 8.13% of the time – that’s fourth in the league. If the Texans stand a chance against the Chargers, that pass rush will have to show up again.
Then there are Houston’s flaws— a lot of flaws. They allow the fourth-most sacks in the league, are 25th in completion percentage, 26th in red zone scoring percentage, 27th in defensive red zone scoring percentage, and 26th in penalties per game. CJ Stroud has taken a step back from his stellar rookie year, and the absence of Tank Dell hinders a passing attack that’s already regressed. Can they overcome this to beat the Chargers?
- Ceiling: Unplugging the Chargers before a rout at the hands of the Chiefs.
- Floor: Being on the wrong side of an electric performance.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens need little introduction.
Everything about them starts and ends with Lamar Jackson, who put up an otherworldly passing season with 41 touchdowns to only four interceptions on the year. His passing ability and creativity in the pocket have partially led to Baltimore becoming explosive passing as well— they have 56 20+ yard pass plays. Pair that with the resurgence of Derrick Henry and the best-rushing defense in football, and the Ravens have something extremely lethal to do battle with.
Defensive tackle Travis Jones and linebacker Tavius Robinson shift on the defensive line presnap here. Roquan Smith points in the direction of where he anticipates the play is going, and he is spot on. Kyle Hamilton slides into the box and makes the tackle for no gain.
Baltimore will face very few challenges, but one will be defending the pass. They allow 244 passing YPG, which is 31st in all of football. Their 58 20+ yard passes given up are the third most in football and second worst of all playoff teams— only the Lions allow more.
They are also very penalty-happy, being penalized 7.8 times a game, the third-most in the league. To be capable of their best, they’ll need to stay out of their own way.
- Ceiling: Winning the whole thing
- Floor: Another struggle bus game against Pittsburgh, leading to a shocking early departure.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have cemented themselves as one of the AFC’s titans.
The trouble is, they haven’t found themselves in the big game since that cementation. They’d get to the conference title game, go to Arrowhead, and get beat by Kansas City.
This year feels different, though. They’ve already conquered Kansas City early on in the year. They’ve got the No. 2 scoring offense in football, averaging 30.8 PPG. Josh Allen is playing football like it’s a video game, putting up 4o total touchdowns and stamping himself firmly among the elite QBs.
The Bills’ attack is also balanced, as both the pass and run offense rank ninth in the league. The Broncos are third in the highest blitz rate, and when Josh Allen is blitzed, Khalil Shakir has a 29 percent target rate, the highest on the team.
On this play, Allen gets blitzed and locates Shakir wide-open in the middle of the field for a 51-yard catch-and-run.
The Bills don’t have many weaknesses, but one that stands out is their inability to get off the field on third down. They allow a conversion 43.78% of the time – that’s the fourth worst in the league. In two of their three losses, Buffalo’s opponents surpassed this mark. The plan for beating the Bills could center around this exact weakness.
- Ceiling: Super Bowl champions
- Floor: A shocking Denver upset.
Kansas City Chiefs
The new Death Star of the NFL.
No matter what their opponents do or how average they look in the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs have laid waste to those who challenge them in the playoffs the last two seasons.
Patrick Mahomes may be on a down year, but everyone knows what he’s capable of. Furthermore, the KC defense has emerged as a top-five scoring defense in football, allowing 19.2 PPG. If the Chiefs elevate from these numbers, look out.
Here, Trent McDuffie is in the slot and in off-coverage. After eliminating his initial assignment, he instantly sniffs out the swing pass, accelerates, and makes an outstanding open-field tackle. Also, notice how deep the safety is; it appears to be a cover one, which is the Chiefs’ main coverage.
Or maybe this year will be different. After all, Kansas City’s explosiveness has disappeared – they only managed 42 20+ yard plays, the sixth worst in football. They also allow them a lot, with their 58 given up, good for ninth most. Their kicking game is also a concern, as Pro Bowler Harrison Butker hasn’t quite looked right after returning from injury. Will any of it matter? Or will the Chiefs continue to be inevitable?
- Ceiling: Their second home – Super Bowl champions.
- Floor: Finally getting bested by a bitter rival – most likely the Bills, Chargers or Ravens.
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