The Bobby Portis Conundrum: Trade Him or Keep Him?

It appears the honeymoon period for Bobby Portis and some Bucks fans is over.

As the Bucks were on their championship run in 2021, chants of Bob-by, Bob-by, Bob-by filled Fiserv Forum.

Despite the lack of bigs behind Giannis and Brook Lopez, Portis’ name has swirled in trade rumors for multiple years now. It really intensified this offseason. Fans are vehemently sending him out now in trade machine deals.

While many fans lament Portis’ shortcomings, it’s easy to forget what he provides. Portis’ scoring off the bench, toughness, and rebounding are all boons for the club. Perhaps no one suffers more when Giannis is out. Earlier this year, with Giannis out due to injury/illness, Portis’ defense left much to be desired.

When Giannis is out, Portis’ defensive shortcomings are highlighted, along with Lopez’s and Portis’s lack of mobility in space. Giannis is the eraser. Many just notice Giannis’s absence, not how he affects other players in the rotation.

Are the Bucks better off trading Portis?

The Bucks could use a dynamic wing defender. A career full of injuries has done a number on Khris Middleton‘s mobility. AJ Jackson, while a very good young defender, fouls quite a bit and is raw offensively. AJ Green is a solid on-ball defender but also fouls a bit too much.

Portis is the only backup big for the Bucks, throwing a bigger wrench in the trade discussion.

At 36, Brook Lopez is getting up there in age and has never averaged 32 minutes per game in his tenure with the Bucks. In fact, his 31.8 minutes per night this season are the most he’s played since 2015-16. This is more out of necessity, as there is not other option for rim protection on this Bucks team.

This makes moving Portis a bit of a conundrum for GM Jon Horst. At the very least, Horst has to pause, because another big has to be heading to Milwaukee if Portis exits. Portis plays a pivotal role as a scorer on the Bucks off the bench. He is a streaky offensive player, and with Giannis’ gravity can be a well above league-average shooter. Giannis being a mobile rim protector also makes up for some of Portis’ defensive shortcomings.

Also, it’s not like Portis has been struggling offensively. Last year, Portis averaged 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 40.7% from 3 and over 50% from the floor. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year for the second consecutive season.

This season, Portis is again averaging 13.8 points per game. He is shooting 38% from 3 and has bumped his rebounds over 8 per game, but his shooting has dipped a bit to below 47% from the field. His shot selection is a big reason for this dip in offensive efficiency. Among the 21 players who have attempted 50 field goals on post-ups, Bobby ranks third-last in points per possession.

If he reduces the long twos and post-ups, Bobby’s efficiency can be right back where it was last season.

Last year’s disappointment not on Portis

Some fans took last year’s roster shortcomings out on Portis.

Malik Beasley was the Bucks’ perimeter stopper last year. The Bucks had a roster construction issue. It wasn’t just Portis causing issue for last year’s Bucks. The team couldn’t put out a solid defensive lineup, especially when Giannis went down at the worst possible time. The subsequent early playoff exit for the second straight year ignited an overreaction season.

Another aspect to look at for keeping Portis is Khris Middleton’s health. Having a third scorer is absolutely critical to the Bucks’ postseason success, and the eye test doesn’t look good right now with Middleton.

If Middleton was showing his 2021 Championship form, the Bucks wouldn’t need to be concerned with three elite scorers. But, with Middleton appearing to have lost a step after double ankle surgeries in the offseason and production down, the Bucks might need Portis’ scoring more than fans think despite having Giannis and Dame in town.

But the offensive end of the floor isn’t what worries fans when it comes to Portis.

The case to trade Portis

The Bucks showed in 2021 the value of a switchable small-ball forward like PJ Tucker could be.

The Bucks’ staunch defense is what was primarily responsible for winning a championship. Portis is a bad defender. He is matchup-dependent when the games slow down in the playoffs. Would a more mobile big like Chris Boucher work? Could the Bucks get a different big or small-ball power forward? If Middleton were healthy, the Bucks would be more actively trying to move Portis in my opinion.

In today’s NBA, 3 and D wings rule the league. Everyone wants them. Are teams giving up a wing like that for Portis? It would have to be someone capable of playing bigger and being switchable. Portis is the Bucks’ only backup big other than 2-way player Liam Robbins.

To me, the first domino to fall is Pat Connaughton being moved.

If Pat is traded for a player on a rookie deal, or even a 2nd round pick, the Bucks can move Portis because they will be under the second tax apron. This paves the way for a number of potential deals as teams get more desperate around the deadline. Portis might land you a wing, but then the Bucks still have a big backup issue. Taurean Prince can play small ball PF as a backup, and you could slide AJ Green into the starting lineup, possibly.

Getting a third team involved may be the solution. If the Bucks are able to unload Connaughton, this opens the door for a three-team deal in which the Bucks can aggregate contracts. An athletic wing and mobile big should be at the top of Horst’s wishlist, but getting back two solid players in any deal would take some front-office magic.

What route do the Bucks take with Portis?

The Bucks haven’t been better with Portis on the court offensively this season.

While Portis did have strong Net Ratings in his first two years in Milwaukee, his contribution to winning basketball leaves much to be desired in the advanced stats department. He has a -5.5  on/off net rating with the Bucks this season, which is the second-worst mark on the team among rotation players.

As unfortunate as those numbers are, Bobby is still the best bench option at five unless the Bucks want to start giving Liam Robbins rotation minutes.

The polarizing power forward was a big part of the Bucks’ NBA Championship run. However, the game has continued to evolve, and the Bucks clearly need an uptick in athleticism, particularly in the frontcourt. Is a Chris Boucher enough to move Portis? I don’t know. But if you can get two cheaper, younger players (after a Connaughton deal), including a wing and backup big, the Bucks seem likely to make a move.