Tomorrow afternoon, the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces will resume their war with one another.
The two powerhouse franchises in the W battled in the Finals last season, with the Aces coming out on top 2-1 to win their second straight WNBA championship.
Many say this year is different. Well, the numbers suggest it could be.
The Basics
Let’s start with the simple stuff.
Last year, the Liberty faced the Aces 4 times. They were on the losing end 2 of those 4 times, only winning the 2 meetings in New York in a 99-61 thrashing and a 94-85 shootout.
During the 2 meetings they lost, the Liberty were defeated by 13 and 18, good for an average losing margin of 15.5. Compare that to this season, where the teams met 3 times and the Liberty won all 3 with an average victory margin of 8.3 — a flip of almost 24 points in one year. The Liberty didn’t get 24 points better over the offseason, but they did vastly improve. Down below is a side-by-side comparison of various counting stats from 2023 and 2024:
| Statistic | 2023 | 2024 |
| 3PT Allowed Per Game | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| FG Allowed Per Game | 30 | 29.1 |
| Opponent 3PT% | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| Opponent ORPG | 8 | 7.5 |
| Steals | 6.7 | 7.9 |
One might notice a theme in these statistics: they all relate to defense! In 2023, the Liberty were a run-and-gun team, similar to the Indiana Fever team of this year. This came back to bite them come Finals time, as the Aces put up 90+ points in both their wins in Sin City. The only win for New York came when they put up their highest point total of the series in Game 3 (87). Fast forward to now, and while their offense has slipped (89.2 PPG to 85.6 in 2024), their defense has taken flight.
The chart speaks for itself. The Liberty take the ball away more. They allow fewer perimeter shots (and shots in general) to go in, and they’ve allowed them to go in at a lower rate.
A Price to Pay for Salvation
| Statistic | 2023 | 2024 |
| 3P% | 37.4% | 34.2% |
| 3PM Per Game | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| FG% | 46% | 44.8% |
| ORTG | 101 | 97.9 |
| TS% | 57.7% | 56.1% |
Above are various offensive stats comparing the Liberty of yesteryear to now. They’re shooting worse across the field, and the 2023 three-point maestros have dipped in three-pointers made per game. This can be boiled down to the stars; Breanna Stewart shot a career-low 29.5%, Sabrina Ionescu regressed from her masterful 44.4% to 33.2%, etc. The bottom line is that the Liberty, while still very good, are not as good offensively.
This is no problem for the Liberty, especially when their defensive rating is 3.1 points lower (101 to 97.9) and their opponent turnover percentage went from 13.1% (last in the WNBA in 2023) to 14.5% (5th in the league). They are also allowing 5 fewer points per game (80.6 to 76.5) compared to last year.
So…….. Can They Beat Vegas?
The numbers certainly suggest they can, and so does the product.
Coming out of the Olympic Break, the Liberty sported the best defense in the WNBA by some margin. This was the key factor to them performing as well as they did after the season restarted, masking the offensive drawback they had due to Sabrina Ionescu’s neck injury.
The Liberty are operating at a different level defensively this year, with the numerical prowess to back it up. However, the numbers only show the basketball. They don’t play the basketball. If the Liberty want to bask in the sweet, sweet revenge they so crave on the Aces, they’ll need their defense to hold firm. Thankfully for them, the numbers love New York.
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