The Minnesota Timberwolves Have a Julius Randle Problem

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a Julius Randle problem.

Randle has started all 19 games for the Timberwolves this season. He averages 21.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 33.7% from three. At first glance, those are solid numbers. However, they don’t tell the full story of the Julius Randle experience in Minnesota.

More than meets the eye

When looking at on/off statistics—comparing how the Timberwolves perform with Randle on the floor versus when he’s on the bench—along with efficiency differential (points scored per 100 possessions vs. points allowed per 100 possessions), a troubling pattern emerges.

While Randle adds some offensive value, his defensive shortcomings significantly outweigh that value. The Timberwolves allow 11.5 more points per 100 possessions when Randle is on the floor, which ranks in the bottom 5% of the league. Opponents also shoot better (+3.3 eFG%) and secure more offensive rebounds (+6.2 ORB%) when Randle is playing.

The “eye test” hasn’t been kind to Randle, either. Offensively, he’s often out of control as he barrels toward the basket, resulting in poor passes and turnovers. Defensively, he’s been much worse, a major liability on that end of the court. Too often, he fails to make an effort or to communicate with teammates. This leaves shooters wide open and allows ball handlers to blow by him with ease.

Last season, the Timberwolves had a remarkable sense of unity and camaraderie. They embraced Rudy Gobert, established a defensive identity, and rooted for one another religiously. This year, however, that chemistry has dissipated. The team appears disconnected and dispirited. While Julius Randle’s arrival and the Karl-Anthony Towns trade aren’t the sole reasons for the Timberwolves’ sluggish start to this season, they are undoubtedly significant factors.

At this point, the Towns’ trade looks regrettable. However, fans felt the same way about the Rudy Gobert trade early on, and that move ultimately proved worthwhile. While it’s still too soon to declare the trade a failure or to write off Julius Randle as an ineffective contributor, with each passing game, that reality inches closer and closer.