After a Game 7 blowout win over the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder will now face the Minnesota Timberwolves with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
The second-round series between the Thunder and Nuggets was electrifying, but now OKC needs to make adjustments and answer some key questions in preparation for their upcoming series against Minnesota:
Do the Thunder Start Isaiah Hartenstein?
After putting on a defensive masterclass against the best offensive player in the league, Nikola Jokic, Hartenstein will have a much different role in the Western Conference Finals. Given Chet Holmgren‘s length, he is the likely matchup for Rudy Gobert. This leaves the question of where Hartenstein fits in the starting lineup.
Hartenstein’s bruiser playstyle is much different than that of his hypothetical bench matchup, Naz Reid. Reid is a smooth ball handler who plays a lot of his game on the perimeter.
Reid can be easily exploited in Minnesota’s primary defense by Hartenstein’s playmaking in the non-restricted paint, which will be pivotal for the Thunder’s bench unit and would create a lot of easy shots.
Considering the difference that Hartenstein can make coming off the bench, that is where he will be best suited to start the series.
Which Jalen Williams Will We See?
After the roller coaster of a series J-Dub had, including a masterful Game 7 to take OKC to the Western Conference Finals, there is a lot of concern about how consistent he will be going forward.
Against the Timberwolves this season Williams averaged 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. J-Dub was a phenomenal playmaker in this regular-season series, punishing the Wolves’ zone defense, especially when Rudy Gobert was out of the game.
(Clip via shotcreator.com)
In the second round, J-Dub had four games shooting under 36% from the field. If he continues to play as inconsistently as he has been, the Thunder will have a nearly impossible path to the finals. In his excellent Game 7, J-Dub looked extremely comfortable, finding open drive lanes and not rushing his offense.
One thing that has never been in question during these playoffs is J-Dub’s defense.
J-Dub has been especially great this season against the Wolves’ second star, Julius Randle. In the limited Williams was guarding him (18 possessions), Randle averaged just 8.6 points per 75 possessions with a 50% true-shooting percentage (via databallr.com), which pales in comparison to the 40.2 points and 75% true-shooting percentage Williams averaged with Randle on him.
J-Dub could be a great solution to slow down Randle if OKC decides to run a smaller lineup or if their big men get in foul trouble.
Although he’s done a great job against Randle, J-Dub’s primary assignments will be Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. J-Dub has been great guarding Ant this season, holding him to 20.0 points on 36.3% true shooting per 75 possessions. He’s also done a fine job against McDaniels, who averaged 17.0 points per 75 possessions on 56.3% true shooting (all via databallr.com).
How Many Minutes Will Alex Caruso Get?
Caruso has been playing at a historically great rate on defense.
In these playoffs, he ranks second with a defensive rating of 96.3 (minimum five games and 15 minutes per game). Caruso has been nothing short of a game-changer off the bench. The question is, will he see even more minutes in this series?
Caruso can make a case to start over Luguentz Dort, who struggled in the Denver series. In these playoffs, Caruso has been an other-worldly disruptor on defense who has also been reliable on offense. He’s averaging 9.3 points and 3.1 assists in these playoffs with 45.6/41.7/66.7 shooting splits.
Even if Caruso doesn’t start, Coach Mark Daigneault must increase Caruso’s minutes from his current 22.5. He’s been the Thunder’s X-factor and will continue to play like one of the best defensive guards of the decade.
Who Wins?
This will be OKC’s toughest matchup yet. It’s a very even series, especially after these teams split the regular season series 2-2. OKC has proven more in these playoffs, though, taking down the Nuggets, and the team maturing and evolving throughout that series.
If Julius Randle continues to play the way he has, and J-Dub continues to struggle, there is no telling what will happen in this series. But OKC still has the more talented roster and the best player in the series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Once the dust settles, the Thunder will end up with the slight edge and win in six or seven games to become Western Conference champions.
Leave a comment