The Minnesota Timberwolves have had a rough season.
High Expectations
Expectations were justifiably high after a strong showing in last year’s playoffs, ending in the Western Conference Finals.
The Timberwolves have one of the most exciting young stars in the NBA, Anthony Edwards, and a lot of talent surrounding him. With more experience under their belts, individually and collectively, the team seemed poised for a top-flight regular season and anticipated being a serious contender.
While the offseason saw significant changes, including the trade of the team’s second-best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, the return — Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle — was seen by most as sufficient to keep the Timberwolves in the contender conversation.
Lots of Problems
That has not been the case for many reasons: a lack of spacing on offense, a poor shooting start from DiVincenzo, Randle’s disappointing defense, Jaden McDaniels‘ inconsistency, and the team’s overall sluggishness. Those are just a few of many factors contributing to the Timberwolves’ disappointing start. One of the least talked about and most concerning is Mike Conley’s decline.
A Precipitous Decline
Conley appears to be aging faster than most expected.
Last season, Timberwolves President Tim Connelly signed him to a two-year, $20.75 million contract. It’s clear Connelly didn’t anticipate such a rapid decline.
Last season Finch said, “There’s no new way to say how important he is,” “He’s really goddamn important. I don’t know if that helps.” So it’s fair to assume Finch supported the deal as well. Most Timberwolves fans and the broader NBA community viewed the contract as a positive move for the team, too.
Conley’s decline has come as a surprise to most.
The Eye Test
Conley’s regression is evident. He no longer moves with the same agility he once had, and defensively, he’s more vulnerable than ever. Offensively, his body can’t keep up with his mind, leading to delayed reactions that result in poor passes and turnovers. He’s also now a diminished scoring threat, limited to catch-and-shoot three-pointers.
Stats Back It Up
The stats reflect this regression as well. Last season, Conley averaged 11.4 points on 45.7% shooting from the field and 44.2% from three, adding 5.9 assists per game. This season, however, he’s down to just 8.1 points per game, shooting 35.4% from the field and 36.6% from beyond the arc, adding only 4.4 assists.
Something’s Missing
Last season, Conley played a crucial role as the primary table-setter on offense.
In the game’s most important moments, he excelled at getting his teammates in the right positions and facilitating their success. He could attack the rim and dish out passes, lob to a big, or score with a floater. Off the ball, he moved quickly to find open spots for catch-and-shoot threes. The offense flowed seamlessly when Conley was on the floor— the ball moved, and everyone knew their role.
Without the Conley from last season, the Timberwolves lack coherence and flow on offense. Too often, their play feels disjointed or stagnant. They fall into a “your turn, my turn” style of basketball with Edwards and Randle while the rest of the team stands around and watches.
Without a true starting point guard to organize and direct the offense, the Timberwolves will continue to struggle to produce good offense consistently.
Will Dillingham be the Solution?
The hope was that, while Conley declined slowly, rookie Rob Dillingham would alleviate some of Conley’s burden. Dillingham was expected to pick up some of Conley’s minutes, provide point guard duties when Conley rested, and even bring a scoring spark that Conley could no longer provide.
Unfortunately, Conley’s decline has come faster than expected, creating a greater sense of urgency for Dillingham to step up. He now needs to be ready for a larger, more significant role than originally anticipated in his rookie season.
Though Dillingham has been dealing with some ankle issues recently, he’s shown some seriously impressive flashes when he’s been on the court. He’s incredibly quick, and there’s no defender in the NBA he can’t blow by.
He’s also demonstrated the ability to shoot the three, a crucial skill for guards in today’s NBA. While his playmaking and defense were initially uncertain, he’s shown a strong willingness to move the ball and find his teammates.
Despite his size limitations, he works relentlessly on defense to make an impact.
So far this season, when Dillingham has been healthy, his biggest challenge has simply been getting on the court. Finch doesn’t yet trust him enough to give him consistent minutes.
That said, as Conley’s decline continues, Finch may have no choice but to lean on Dillingham. As Conley’s role shrinks, Dillingham’s opportunity to prove himself grows significantly. If Dillingham can become a legitimate starting point guard, that would allow Conley to come off of the bench, which he may be more suited to at this age.
A Shift
Evidence of this shift was displayed Monday night against the Los Angeles Clippers when Finch opted to start DiVincenzo at point guard instead of Conley. Although the Timberwolves got off to a slow start, they ultimately won the game partly because Donte found his rhythm early, which helped him shoot more efficiently.
With a lighter workload, Conley also shot the ball well, scoring 11 points on 50% shooting from the field and 67% from three. He finished the game with a +11 plus-minus.
It’s unclear whether Conley’s decline continues or is simply taking longer than expected to find his rhythm this season. Perhaps a role adjustment — moving him to the bench — could be what he needs to return to the productive player he’s been for the Timberwolves.
Either way, something needs to change, or this season will only continue to deteriorate.
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