Since the early days of the Warriors’ dynasty years, they have always excelled in third quarters. The first few games of this season are no exception.
The Dubs’ strong start to the year can largely be attributed to their runs coming out of halftime. Up to this point in the season, the Warriors rank second in third-quarter net rating and third in true shooting percentage (TS%). Up until their lackluster performance in Milwaukee, they were first in both categories.
Their wins have all either been propelled by overcoming a deficit they had at halftime or erupting in the third. In other words, the third quarter is the key.
During the first 24 minutes against the Nuggets, the team’s deficit grew from the first quarter to the third. After the Warriors turned around to start the second half, they forced overtime and came out on top.
A cold stretch against the Los Angeles Clippers in the second quarter shifted the momentum to L.A. The Clippers stormed back from a 15-point deficit in the second quarter to take a three-point lead at the half. The Warriors’ 18-point turnaround in the third is what gave them the lead back, helping ensure a runaway Dubs victory.
This third-quarter magic is also what allowed them to extend a one-point halftime lead against the Lakers to 11 by the fourth quarter. Against the Bucks, the Warriors lost the third-quarter by one-point, and ultimately lost the game by 10.
Night and Day Difference
What is startling is not just their numbers relative to the other teams, but how much of an anomaly this quarter is compared to the other three.
As is evident while watching the games, the Warriors play their worst in the second period, by far. The team either sees leads slip away or deficits grow from the first to the third quarter.
The Warriors’ net rating crashes from 0.7 in the first to -14.1 in the second.
Their inability to play well in the second quarters could be due to to the fact that Kerr has tinkered with the lineups.
Curry typically rests on the bench to start the second and fourth quarters, with Kerr staggering his and Butler’s minutes. On top of that, the secondary unit is still working out some kinks.
Injuries and rotation adjustments have prevented the lineup from gaining continuity in playing alongside one another.
Despite how well the Dubs perform in the third, their numbers return to Earth during the final quarter.
TS% falls from 68.5% to 60.1%, and while 60% is still nothing to sneeze at, the net rating drops from 32.7 to -9.5 (24th). While these numbers aren’t as bad as the second quarter, where the TS% is also their lowest, it’s clear the Warriors can’t sustain consistent play over the course of multiple quarters.
Consistency is Key
The statistical quarter breakdowns indicate that the Warriors are capable of taking care of the ball and playing well against tough opponents. The third quarter showings being the best (followed by the first quarter) may be a byproduct of the synchronization of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler’s minutes.
Curry and Butler play their longest stretch together and start at the beginning of the first and third quarters. With only one of the two on the court, there is a larger burden on the other player; together, they can do the most damage.
The star pairing could be why the team’s stats are best during those frames.
No matter who is on the court, turnovers and ill-advised shots must be kept under control. Limiting the sloppy mistakes will help the Warriors string together high-level play for long durations.
The poor quarter showings could end up costing them in close games or when they find themselves down big.
More Work To Do
The third quarter is the Dubs’ signature, but they shouldn’t rely on miraculous 12-minute showings to win games. Over the course of an 82-game season, they may run out of gas come the fourth due to the exorbitant energy expended to put on these basketball clinics.
Perhaps the Warriors just need a regroup in the locker room between halves. Or some time to break down the opposing team’s play and make adjustments.
Whatever their secret recipe is for third quarter sorcery, they must find a way to tap into throughout the other quarters.
Leave a comment