The Warriors have been a mediocre team since the start of the season. Lineup combinations, schemes, and individual player performances have been the topic of conversation regarding their biggest issues. But the most glaring area of improvement lies in their inability to close out games.
One of the hallmarks of a great team is winning in a variety of different circumstances — at home, away, when leading, or trailing. So far, the Warriors have yet to master that skill.
Golden State Can’t Hold a Lead
If the Warriors want to go on a run to give themselves a chance at contention, January is the month to do so. Eleven of their 16 games this month are at home, and the team doesn’t leave California until January 22. An important predictor of whether or not they will be able to take advantage of the schedule will be revealed in their clutch games.
Before Golden State’s game against the Charlotte Hornets, the team was among the worst in crunch-time situations. Of the seven games that the Warriors have blown since November 21, the team held a double-digit lead in four of them.
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Should the team continue to struggle or miss the playoffs down the line, critics will point to these several games. In the December 14 matchup versus the Trail Blazers, Stephen Curry’s 12 made threes weren’t enough to get his team over the hump.
The Warriors gave up a 15-5 run that game after giving up a 17-0 run to the Timberwolves two nights earlier.
Some Games Shouldn’t Be That Close
Every team will experience tight games and have to figure out ways to close them out; that is inevitable. But the Warriors have been in several contests that shouldn’t have come down to the wire in the first place.
Against the Toronto Raptors, a Warriors victory looked guaranteed when they had a seven-point advantage with 1:34 remaining. In the end, ill-timed turnovers and missed shots left the door open for the Raptors to swoop in.
After clutch buckets by Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley, the Warriors wound up in an overtime game that felt over the second the extra period started. The Raptors appeared to be the more poised team down the stretch, despite being significantly younger than their opponent.
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The Warriors continually play down to their opponent, no matter who it is. Because of this, they expend considerable energy at the end of games trying to make comebacks or sustain leads. By the time the last few minutes approach, the team is out of gas and vulnerable to costly errors.
Their poor clutch record (8-11) is in spite of the fact that they actually have displayed some of the league’s best clutch shooting so far this season. The problem for the Warriors is that they have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the clutch in the NBA.
What Could Have Been
Playing a game of what-ifs won’t help, but those four games the Warriors blew double digits in may decide the season. Had the Warriors been able to close out just those four games, their record would be 22-12 instead of 18-16.
In the West, a 22-12 record is good enough for the No. 5/No. 6 seed — a guaranteed playoff position. Currently, they sit in the No. 8 seed.
Factor in the Bucks and Pacers debacles that should have been easy wins, and the Warriors’ record would be 24-10, a top two or three seed. Just from the winnable games alone, their record would look vastly different from how it does now.
The four losses in which they blew double-digit leads seem negligible in January. Once March and April approach, however, those games may wind up costing the Warriors a postseason appearance.
For as experienced as the Warriors’ core is, they should excel in crunch-time scenarios. If they can’t build large enough leads to avoid close games, they must at least be able to finish out close ones.
Warriors Must Improve in the Clutch
The myriad of close games they have already played shows they’ve had a legitimate chance to win in a majority of their losses. Despite how far the Warriors are from the one or two spot, finishing in the top six is not outlandish. The West is still tight; just a few games separate the fourth to eighth seeds.
The Warriors don’t need a huge superstar addition to become contenders again. What they need is to improve in the clutch, or play well enough to avoid it in the final minutes.
There are still roughly 50 games left in the regular season. The Warriors must make a big push before the All-Star break to climb the standings — their clutch-time record will play a big part in that.
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