After a game seven blowout against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Denver Nuggets have to play the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, the two MVP frontrunners, will go head-to-head in the second round.
These teams had a 2-2 record against each other in the regular season.
Who Should Guard Jokic?
One of the most dominant offensive players in NBA history, Nikola Jokic, is coming off a typical first-round stat line: averaging 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.1 assists against the Clippers. This leaves the question of how OKC can slow him down: Is it Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren?
Although Hartenstein would feel like the likely answer, because of his bruising physicality, this has not been the case this season, per 75 possessions, Jokic averages 33.4 points with a 71.7% true shooting while matched up against him.
However, against Holmgren, Jokic averages 16.5 points on 42.7% true shooting per 75 possessions. Although Holmgren can’t match Jokic’s or Hartenstein’s frame, his incredible defensive instincts and wingspan allow him to deny Jokic the ball on post-ups and greatly contest his paint shots.
Although there will never be a way to stop Jokic completely, Holmgren gives OKC the best chance to force Denver’s other players to make the winning plays.
Russell Westbrook‘s Return to OKC
Russell Westbrook, one of the most beloved players in OKC history, returns to OKC for the first time in the playoffs. It will feel like a home game for Westbrook in every game, as he is still beloved in OKC. Other than his long-awaited return, Westbrook has proven to be a problem for OKC this season.
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In the two games Westbrook started this season against OKC, the Nuggets are 2-0. Westbrook averages 22.5 points, 6.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds, shooting 64.0% from the field.
Since Westbrook came off the bench in all seven first-round games, he is unlikely to start against OKC.
When Westbrook comes off the bench against OKC this season, the Nuggets are 0-2. Westbrook averages 8.0 points, 5.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds. He shot a measly 15.8% in those games.
Although these are outlier games for Westbrook, if Denver chooses not to start him, it’s clear he won’t be the game changer he would be as a starter.
Will SGA Return to Normal Offensive Form?
After a shaky start to the playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies, SGA has a lot of room for growth in this series. He shot just 40.2% in the first round.
The Nuggets can get Gilgeous-Alexander back into rhythm. He averaged 30.3 points and shot 49.4% against them in the regular season, including a 40-point game.
Despite his underwhelming first round, there should not be any worries for Gilgeous-Alexander in the future. Going against a team with a weak interior defense and no defensive identity is precisely what he needs to get back to normal.
Who Will Win?
With OKC’s combination of depth and star power, it’s hard for any team in the Western Conference to compete with it. OKC has answers to nearly everything, while Denver will struggle to find answers for SGA, Jalen Williams, Holmgren, and their perennial role players.
Despite Jokic being the best player in the world, OKC likely beats them in five or six games.
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