The upcoming NFL season is the most anticipated for the New England Patriots since Tom Brady left the franchise in March of 2020.
The Patriots have not played in a meaningful football game since January 2022. In that game, they were embarrassed 47-17 by their longtime “little brother,” the Buffalo Bills, in the AFC Wild Card Round.
In the three years that have followed, New England has had three consecutive losing seasons, including back-to-back four-win campaigns. The Patriots had not won four or fewer games in consecutive years since 1969-1970.
Despite recent dreadful results, optimism is in the air in New England ahead of the upcoming season. The cause? An offseason that saw the franchise clean house.
Mike Vrabel enters his first season as head coach of the franchise with which he won three Super Bowls in the early 2000s. Quarterback Drake Maye is set to lead the offense in his first full year as a starter. New free agent signings look to make an impact. An incoming rookie class heralded as one of the most impressive in the league also joins the picture.
With all this turnover, what can be expected of the Patriots this upcoming season?
Offense: Coaching
Statistically, New England is coming off its worst two-year offensive stretch in franchise history.
The Patriots finished 30th in scoring offense and 31st in total offense this past season. In 2023, New England tied for the league’s worst scoring offense and 30th-ranked total offense.
To address these abysmal figures, Mike Vrabel brings in Josh McDaniels for his third stint as New England’s offensive coordinator.
McDaniels led a sixth-ranked Patriots scoring offense in Mac Jones’s rookie year before taking the head coaching job with the Las Vegas Raiders in January 2022. New England took a stark offensive nosedive following McDaniels’ departure.
Offense: Talent
Drake Maye has his first true chance to lead an offense at the pro level after showing immense promise in his rookie season. The offense was notably more effective with Maye under center, and the North Carolina product displayed an impressive feel for the game.
Maye desperately lacked help last season. He was often on the run, and while he had success scrambling for yards (7.8 yards per carry in 2024), lackluster offensive line play made his life difficult.
Luckily for Maye, the Patriots invested significant resources into the unit PFF called “the NFL’s worst offensive line.”
In the draft, New England chose LSU left tackle Will Campbell fourth overall and Georgia center Jared Wilson 95th overall. Right tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury inked deals with New England as low-cost veterans.
The line remains a concern for the Patriots, but the group should have more success than it has had the past two seasons.
The majority of excitement for New England’s offensive potential comes from the skill positions.
Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas look to build on their 2024 campaign as Maye’s top wideout targets. Hunter Henry returns with a new contract after leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards.
Talented rookies also enter the mix via the draft. Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, taken 38th overall, joins Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield as an elite receiving threat. The explosive Kyle Williams, selected 69th overall as a deep-threat wide receiver from Washington State, looks impressive in training camp.
New England also adds a big-name acquisition in Stefon Diggs as a top target for Maye. The 31-year-old is past his prime and coming off a torn ACL, but was productive in the eight games he played with the Houston Texans last year.
Diggs’s days as a premier wideout are over, but he remains a passable top target. Such a talent hasn’t called Foxborough home at any point this decade. Diggs’s 47 receptions and 496 yards would each rank third on last year’s Patriots squad, while his three receiving touchdowns would be tied for first.
Offensive Outlook
With a new offensive coordinator, an improved offensive line, and revamped skill positions, the Patriots’ 2025 season cannot be viewed as a success unless a significant offensive leap is made. A middle-of-the-pack offense is fair to expect, and, while not ideal, would be a stark improvement from recent years.
Defense: Coaching
Defense has been a hallmark of the Patriots for the entirety of this century, but the unit struggled in 2024. New England finished 21st in points and yards allowed per game last year. It is the first season since 1995 that the Patriots have finished 20th or lower in both categories.
To improve a middling group, New England brought in the defensive-minded Vrabel as its new head man. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year with the Tennessee Titans is expected to reinvigorate an already talented unit.
Vrabel’s defensive coordinator is former Detroit Lions defensive line coach/run game coordinator Terrell Williams. The veteran position coach was regarded as one of the best in the league in his role. Williams served under Vrabel in Tennessee for six seasons and led the league’s top run defense in 2022.
Defense: Talent
The Patriots’ defensive improvements do not end with the coaching staff. New England paid top dollar for several big-name free agents, showing a financial commitment to Vrabel’s defensive culture.
The Patriots’ headline acquisition is defensive tackle Milton Williams. The 26-year-old penned a four-year, $104 million deal to become the highest-paid member of the New England roster. Williams was key for the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles last year, recording two sacks in Philadelphia’s Super Bowl win.
There are concerns about Williams’s ability to handle a larger workload (just seven starts in 2024 and only 48% of defensive snaps), but he adds game-wrecking talent to the interior defensive line. Williams recorded five sacks, 10 QB hits, and seven tackles for a loss last season.
In the middle, New England adds outside linebacker Harold Landry III, who played with the Titans for the entirety of Vrabel’s tenure. The Boston College product provides a much-needed boost to a Patriots defense that recorded a league-worst 28 sacks in 2024. Landry has 50.5 sacks through seven NFL seasons.
Another addition at linebacker is Robert Spillane, who excelled with the Raiders in each of the last two seasons. The 29-year-old recorded over 100 tackles in back-to-back seasons with Las Vegas. His 158 tackles last season set a Raiders franchise record and ranked third in the league. Spillane also has experience with Vrabel, joining the Titans as an undrafted free agent in 2018.
In the secondary, New England found a running mate for star corner Christian Gonzalez. Carlton Davis III provides No. 1 talent at the No. 2 corner spot and plays elite man coverage, much like Gonzalez. Davis spent 2024 with the Lions and, as such, is familiar with Terrell Williams— a common theme in the Patriots’ defensive additions.
New England devoted its first four draft choices to the offense, but scored big on the defensive side deep in the draft. Most notable were Florida State defensive tackle Joshua Farmer (taken 137th overall) and LSU edge rusher Bradyn Swinson (146th overall), both heralded as late-round steals.
Defensive Outlook
The Patriots swung big to address needs on defense and brought in proven defensive minds in Vrabel and Williams to helm the unit. New England had a home run offseason on this side of the ball. A top-10 defense is fair to expect.
What to Expect?
The Patriots have shown they are committed to improving in 2025, but how much improvement should be expected?
New England has had back-to-back four-win seasons, and baby steps won’t cut it to satisfy fans starving for success.
Drake Maye has the most talented offense of any Patriots quarterback this decade. New England invested heavily in its defensive unit to bring it back to its former, dominant self. The Patriots have the talent of a playoff team, and Mike Vrabel’s staff is filled with proven football minds.
Barring extreme misfortune, it’s reasonable to expect eight to ten wins from New England this season. A second-place finish in the AFC East is well within reach, but Buffalo will be hard to catch for the division crown.
The Patriots, by all accounts, should be playoff contenders in 2025.
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