The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best depth in the NBA — a significant reason for their championship. Their depth has improved even further with the return of rookie Nikola Topic, meaning this season, Mark Daigneault will be left with numerous tough lineup decisions.
Some key choices Daigneault will have to make include starting Isaiah Hartenstein or not, selecting the backup guards, and determining the closing lineup.
Is the Double-Big Starting Lineup the Best Decision?
Last season, the Thunder went with the double-big lineup of Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren virtually every game they were healthy. Even though the Thunder were incredible last season, having the best record in the NBA, this lineup was far from their most efficient.
Oklahoma City’s most efficient lineups came with Cason Wallace starting over Hartenstein.
With Wallace starting, the Thunder’s net rating was 19.7, drastically greater than with Hartenstein starting (8.4 net rating). Wallace is an elite perimeter defender with some of the fastest hands in the league. This aligns more closely with the rest of OKC’s starters than Hartenstein, who is a good defender but often struggles to close out on the perimeter.
Hartenstein’s best trait is his ability to execute short rolls and dribble handoffs. This led to countless easy baskets from his reliable floater and his ability to make any pass to cutters. His expertise would be great against big teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Houston Rockets, but Wallace would be more suited for the majority of matchups.
Which Backup Guards Will See Major Minutes?
Wallace and Alex Caruso will have substantial minutes, but there are also the talented guards Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. Topic will miss the first few weeks of the season, but afterwards, it will be a steep competition for backup minutes between Topic and Mitchell.
Both guards possess exceptional qualities; Mitchell is a great shooter and a skilled pick-and-roll ball handler, while Topic is an outstanding passer with superb size.
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The Thunder have considerably invested in these two guards as well — re-signing Mitchell this offseason and spending a first-round pick on Topic. They struggled to find a reliable secondary playmaker last year, resulting in stagnant half-court offenses and frequent ball stoppages.
Both of Topic and Mitchell are capable of stepping into this role, and whichever guard does will likely assume more significant playing time.
Who Will the Thunder’s Fifth Closing Player Be?
Throughout the majority of the playoffs, next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lugentz Dort, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso was typically the fifth closer. This differed from the regular season, as the Thunder usually went with the role player who was shooting well; this could’ve been Aaron Wiggins, Wallace, Caruso, or even Isaiah Joe.
After seeing the success of Caruso as a closer in the playoffs, making countless clutch defensive plays, it’s worth considering that he will close the majority of regular-season games this season. However, because he missed 28 games last season and played just 19.3 minutes per game, it’s more likely that he will be preserved as much as possible to be at full strength for the playoffs.
Considering all of these factors, the likely closeout player is Wallace or Wiggins. Wallace provides his outstanding perimeter defense and good drive ability. Wiggins gives more shot creation, size, and rebounding.
The choice of the fifth closer will undoubtedly vary by matchup, and like every other lineup decision, will be adjusted throughout the 82-game season.
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