It’s that time of year when college football coaches are getting fired and hired at new schools as part of the coaching carousel. Rumors are swirling that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin could leave for Florida or LSU before this current season ends.
Where will Kiffin end up? And if he leaves, where does that leave Ole Miss?
How CFB Coaching Contracts Work
Lane Kiffin’s contract currently runs through the end of 2031, so one might ask how Kiffin is even able to leave now in the first place. In the same way that colleges can buy out coaches’ contracts, coaches can do the same thing, but at a much smaller cost.
While colleges have paid as much as $76.8 million to rid themselves of a coach, coaches wouldn’t owe nearly as much to terminate their contracts.
If Georgia wanted to buy out Kirby Smart, they’d have to pay him $105.1 million. If Smart wanted to leave, he’d only pay $5 million. To make matters easier for coaches who want to leave, their new employer often covers the cost. Kiffin will have no problem leaving, especially if his destination pays enough.
How We Got Here
Many “Power 4” conference teams have fired their coaches this season. LSU fired Brian Kelly, Penn State fired James Franklin, Florida fired Billy Napier and Auburn fired Hugh Freeze, just to name a few.
Of course, these programs are now looking for the best coaches available, even if it means poaching from other schools.
However, Ole Miss has the fifth-best record in college football since 2022. So why would Kiffin leave? Money, winning, glitz and glamour.
Baton Rouge and Gainesville are both bigger cities than Oxford. LSU and Florida both have bigger stadiums than Ole Miss. Their athletic departments are both worth at least $200 million more than Ole Miss. That means more money to go around, to both players and Kiffin himself. More money for the players means an easier time recruiting and better chances at championships.
The Deadline Caveat
While Lane Kiffin has denied reports that Ole Miss issued him an ultimatum, it is very possible they have given him a deadline for his decision.
Unfortunately, the college football system is flawed, as there are signing dates for high school players before a season, including the playoffs, is finished. This year, it happens to be December 3. If a player doesn’t know who his coach will be, of course, it decreases the chance that he will sign to attend a certain school.
As a result, schools will race to know who their coach for the future will be by then. Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter cannot afford to wait. He needs to know if he needs to search for a new coach. Kiffin is therefore likely to announce his decision within the next week.
The Leaderless Rebels?
Ole Miss was ranked No. 6 in the nation in the Nov. 23 college football AP Poll. Barring any shocking losses, they should enter the playoffs this year.
However, if Kiffin chooses to leave, no one knows if his new contract will allow him to finish the season with the Rebels. If it doesn’t, not only will the Rebels’ performance most likely suffer, but their ranking in the AP Poll could suffer too. This could affect their playoff matchups, giving them a much harder road to a national title.
Legendary coach Nick Saban is among many who believe this is part of college football’s broken system, but it nonetheless remains an issue in this story.
Kiffin’s Future
While LSU, Florida and Ole Miss all seem ready to pay up for Kiffin, LSU has recently shown a desire to outbid the other two and go above and beyond. Rumors are floating that the Tigers are prepared to make Kiffin the highest-paid coach in the sport at $98 million over seven years.
In addition, according to Newsweek, the deal “would include a promise to invest competitively in NIL funding.”
This significantly turns the tide in LSU’s favor. Furthermore, if Kiffin knows he wants to stay, he probably would have already stated as such. He’s either unsure, using lucrative offers as leverage over Ole Miss or leaving. He has dodged questions about the topic and kept his cards close to his chest.
Kiffin’s decision ultimately depends on what he wants. If he’s happy in Oxford, wants to leave a lasting legacy and believes Ole Miss will provide a good enough opportunity to win, he will stay. If he wants more money, bigger crowds or a better chance to win, it’ll be interesting to see which next destination he chooses.
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