Which NFL Week 4 Games Matter the Most?

Welcome to the “Watchability stakes” – a ranking of the weekly matchups ahead in the NFL. Games are tiered based on three factors: narrative, implications and general intrigue. You will be seeing The Lead’s NFL game watchability rankings at the start of the week to get you ready for football action.

Just like that, three weeks of this new NFL season are officially in the books. It’s only going to feel more of a roller-coaster from here.

The Lead’s weekly “Watchability stakes” returns at a critical point in the year for many teams. Two things to keep an eye on for Week 4. First, this week really kicks off divisional matchups moving forward. Ten teams will be playing in division-only games this week. Second, almost every game this time around is either AFC versus AFC or NFC versus NFC. A whopping 14 of this week’s 16 games are between teams in the same conference.

What does that all mean in the grand scheme of things? A lot, particularly for the playoff picture but also for the teams on either end of the success pendulum: those riding a hot start facing a “prove you’re for real” opponent, or faltering teams grasping for dear life this week. Strap in because Week 4 is going to be a good one.

Without further ado, here are your “Watchability stakes“ rankings for Week 4:

Tier 1: Absolutely can’t miss

Buffalo Bills (3-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-2) – Sunday @ 8:20 pm EST

• Lamar Jackson and the Ravens survived a late comeback from Dallas to notch in their first win of the year. Up next: Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, who just completely dominated Jacksonville. It’s not only a top-tier matchup, but it’s without a doubt the best game of the week. Immense stakes for both sides here.

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs. Detroit Lions (2-1) – Monday @ 8:15 pm EST

• The rest of the games in Tier 1 are NFC vs. NFC games. You can make a case for all of them to be the second pick on the board. However, this is the game for Monday night (especially with the other matchup being Tennessee and Miami). Seattle’s hot start faces its toughest test of the year so far against Detroit.

Minnesota Vikings (3-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Our first divisional game to appear in the rankings sees the surprise Vikings head to Lambeau Field for the best early-afternoon game of the week. Division implications aside, each team will feel great with a win and somewhat deflated with a loss.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Two teams with two different outcomes last week. Philly escaped in a defensive battle versus New Orleans, while Tampa Bay’s strong start cooled off dramatically against Denver. Bonus points for this also being a rematch of last year’s NFL Wild Card game.

Tier 2: This could be fun

New Orleans Saints (2-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Each team took a loss last week, but barely. New Orleans let Philly slip by, while Atlanta’s heroics fell just short. Just like that, a key divisional game would do a lot in the standings, but also their general outlooks ahead. Don’t sleep on this game.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• Another fun divisional matchup rightfully earns a high ranking. That’s especially because Kansas City is undefeated, but its three wins were rather close, while Los Angeles has looked impressive even after a loss last week. Easily the headline game for the late-afternoon window.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Tough call with this one (it can easily be a Tier 3 game), but Los Angeles’ comeback against the Niners bumped this one up. Matthew Stafford versus Caleb Williams is a marquee QB battle, and each team has looked great to bad depending on the day.

Tier 3: Decent floor, high upside

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) vs. New York Giants (1-2) – Thursday @ 8:15 pm EST

• Back-to-back crushing losses plus New York’s surprise road win over Cleveland suddenly make this game way more interesting now than a week ago. Bonus points for this being a divisional matchup and the lone Thursday night game. Someone is waking up with a 1-3 record Friday morning, and Dallas being that team would be a shock.

Washington Commanders (2-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• This has a case to be the most underrated game of the week. It’s second in the rankings among the late-afternoon games featuring the QB battle of Jayden Daniels versus Kyler Murray. This could be a shootout for both teams, and the upside is there for an entertaining matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Pittsburgh’s undefeated start could tack on another win in Indianapolis. There’s nothing too out of left field with this game, but there are playoff standing implications for down the road and this beats out a fair amount of other games slated for the early-afternoon window (see below).

Denver Broncos (1-2) vs. New York Jets (2-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

New York shouldn’t have too much of an issue with this, but Denver’s standout defensive game against Tampa Bay makes this another matchup that got more interesting after this past weekend.

Tier 4: It could always be worse

New England Patriots (1-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2) – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• New England is playing its first game since getting blown out by the Jets. The Niners are coming off a collapse versus the Rams. San Francisco would be the initial favorite, but injuries across the board could make this a closer game than most would think.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs. Houston Texans (2-1) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Jacksonville is fighting for everything to stay relevant right now after the tough Buffalo loss. No better time to play Houston after the Texans took a weird loss of their own against Minnesota.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2) – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• It is boom-or-bust time for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Can Carolina keep this newfound momentum going with Andy Dalton?

Tier 5: Snooze Fest

Tennessee Titans (0-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2) – Monday @ 7:30 pm EST

• This can only move to Tier 4 if Miami brings Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback. The Dolphins could use one.

Cleveland Browns (1-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• After Cleveland lost to the Giants and the Raiders let Carolina win by 14 points, optimism doesn’t feel very high for either side.