With the 2025-26 NBA season underway, you have probably already seen a lot of those number-crunching-style articles laying out predictions for the season ahead.
Sports publications will confidently lay out the case for teams’ over/under win totals, playoff hopes, championship credentials, and so on.
It is, of course, interesting to take a look at expert predictions, but we all know that it can go out the window as soon as things get started. There are always teams that few thought would do well that come out of the gate hot, and there are always teams that disappoint.
Logically, that applies to players, too. And yet, it is arguably easier to predict whether an individual will have a good season — barring unforeseen events like injuries — compared to an entire team. That’s largely reflected in the 2025-26 season NBA MVP betting markets, which are somewhat firmer in their assertions than team futures markets.
SGA, Wemby and Jokic Lead the Way
So, who is at the top or near the top of those markets? The first thing that probably catches your eye is that there’s close to being a three-way tie at the top, with some sportsbooks citing Nikola Jokic as the favorite, but others, like DraftKings, going for the reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA leads the pack right now at +200, with second-year phenom Victor Wembanyama currently second at +275. Nikola Jokic rounds out the top three at +350.
That trio represents the top of the market, with a fair gap to the others, which we will discuss in a moment. It is clearly hard to pick between them, and you would expect some bettors to make their picks based on how well their respective teams do throughout the season. That will probably lead to money coming in for SGA, given the OKC’s standing as a hot favorite going into the season. It’s not always the case that the MVP comes from the best team, but it does help when the decision isn’t clear-cut.
Giannis Is Seen as a Value Pick
Luka Doncic is fourth at +550 right now, but Giannis Antetokounmpo may have the best value pick at +1300.
We have seen plenty of NBA preseason tipsters cite Giannis as the value bet, calling it a decent risk-versus-reward proposition. While it felt like a quiet season for Giannis and the Bucks last year, he continues to put up career numbers despite the team’s lack of success in the postseason.
With no clear-cut No. 2 option in Wisconsin and a lack of recent success, trade rumors continue to circle about Giannis leaving Milwaukee. While it hasn’t happened yet, another season where Giannis is carrying the load and not seeing any fruition may be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Ant-Man, KD Sleeper Picks, Too?
Going further down the markets, you have Anthony Edwards at +6000. Like Giannis, Edwards is another value bet. His excellence last season probably didn’t get the credit it deserved.
Finally, there is an intriguing wild card pick at +10000 and above— Kevin Durant. KD is getting on in years, and his numbers in Phoenix point to a decline. Yet, he has hooked up with a young Rockets team that many think could do something special.
It would require breaking Karl Malone’s long-standing record as the oldest regular-season MVP, but the narrative of the crafty veteran guiding an up-and-coming team could be a compelling one.
The 2025-25 NBA MVP race is sure to be a gauntlet.
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