While eight Wild Card teams were busy knocking each other out this week, four sleeping giants of the Major League Baseball season have been watching.
It’s time for the Division Series of the 2026 MLB Postseason. 100-win tyrants, darlings, division matchups, MVPs. Eight of baseball’s best square up in the brief yet explosive best-of-five series.
Here’s who will win each one.
An AL Central Clash
Via FanGraphs, on Opening Day, the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox had an 8.7% and 0.6% chance to win the AL Central, respectively. That was good for fourth and fifth place.
Now, the two are meeting in the ALDS.
All year long, Chicago led the division while the Guardians stayed within a few games. That changed during a series between the two in September, when Cleveland took first and held it.
That pushed the White Sox to finish in the Wild Card. They swiftly took care of the Houston Astros in two games this week.
So the division foes, who nobody predicted to be here, now face off for a spot in the ALCS.
Chicago’s lineup showed up and showed out in Houston, scoring a combined seven runs in the first two innings. The Astros were just never able to catch up, and if Chicago replicates that, this series could be over quickly.
However, the White Sox are facing an exponentially better pitching staff than the Astros’. The Guardians ended with the ninth-best starting pitcher ERA and sixth-best bullpen ERA in baseball. Houston was 27th and 18th, respectively.
This five-game series will come down to the White Sox lineup. In the 13 games they played this season, Chicago plated 4.5 runs per game. That mark would be enough to win this series.
Cleveland’s offense scored the 24th most runs per game and sits in the basement of team average, SLG and OPS. Although they have every pitching advantage over Chicago, teams need to hit home runs to win playoff games in 2026. And home runs are where the White Sox excel.
Don’t expect the scoring Chicago piled on in Houston, but the brand of baseball the Sox are playing should send them into the league Championship Series.
The Dodgers Meet Their Foe
There is no bigger target on the back of a team right now than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Back-to-back World Series, a $380 million payroll and potentially the biggest component of MLB’s looming labor lockout.
LA welcomes in a team that’s watched them beat the Dodgers all year long: the Atlanta Braves.
In the six games between the Dodgers and Braves this year, Atlanta’s won five.
The Braves survived an elimination game against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, but played an overall good series. Everything they did to win 94 games and win the National League East, they did in the Wild Card.
Starting pitching was phenomenal, and the threat of every guy in the Braves lineup to strike, struck. But you
can’t talk about the danger of a deep lineup and not talk about the Dodgers.
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez. The list goes on and on.
Los Angeles does have the lineup and pitching staff advantage over Atlanta. But the Braves have shown they know how to beat the Dodgers.
LA enters having won seven straight playoff series. This is a veteran, experienced team that everyone is trying to beat. The Dodgers won 100 games in 2026, the most in their consecutive World Series wins era. The team has been injured a lot since the All-Star break, but has had everyone return through September and return well.
If the Braves want to win this series, they must score more consistently than they did against Philadelphia. They’re facing a much better rotation and bullpen than the Phillies, and need a lot to go right to dethrone this giant.
With all of this said, Los Angeles is the better team. Atlanta might not have the legs to keep up in the extended five-game series.
The (Real) ALCS
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees have been the clear-cut best teams in the American League. Thanks to the playoff format, these two meet in the ALDS, and not the ALCS.
Tampa Bay finished with 98 wins and the best record in the AL. They also won seven of the 13 games played against the Yankees in 2026.
But New York’s coming in red hot. Without Aaron Judge, the Yankees hung nine runs on the Red Sox in each night of the two-game sweep. The Yankees punched Boston in the teeth while flexing the muscle of their starting pitching.
The MLB-leading starting pitching. No team finished with a higher SP ERA than the Yankees, and nobody really came close. In a rotation with Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, a 25-year-old will win the Cy Young over all of them.
Cam Schlittler delivered in his start against the Red Sox and has a career 2.58 ERA against the Rays.
But these aren’t any ordinary Rays.
No team in the league is harder to get outs against than Tampa Bay. The 2026 Rays have a league-leading batting average and never strike out. They don’t stack runs on the board, but they don’t need to. The Rays execute near-flawless small ball and have the best winning percentage in one-run games of all playoff teams.
This will be a tough series for the Yankees. Judge’s health could be the difference between another disappointing ALDS exit and a damn good shot at the World Series.
Tampa Bay is coming in with a rested and healthy starting rotation, which isn’t nearly as good as New York’s, but can very well hold their own. Home-field advantage for the Rays will also prove vital, having won 68% of their games at Tropicana Field this year.
This is undoubtedly one of the better Yankees teams in recent memory, but facing Tampa Bay right now is difficult. If this were a seven-game ALCS, New York’s starting pitching could outlast the Rays. But since the Rays are rested and at home, Tampa Bay should advance to the ALCS.
The Best Matchup of the Divisionals
Bear down for the battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres.
This is a matchup between the best team in baseball and the hottest team in baseball. San Diego disposed of the Chicago Cubs in two games last week, riding hot bats and their lockdown bullpen.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are leading a Padres team with a different feel from last year’s. San Diego is playing with deadly confidence and with nothing to lose. They believe they can beat anybody right now, and that may be the case.
San Diego handled the best team of 2026 in their six games played this year, winning four. The Padres swept the Brewers in Petco Park in August, but lost the series in Milwaukee in May.
Although nobody wants to play the Padres right now, that title belonged to the Brewers for all of 2026.
Milwaukee has made the postseason eight of the last nine years, but hasn’t reached the World Series once. That said, this is the best Brewers team of all time.
They set a franchise record with 103 wins in 2026. They’ve been beating good teams all season long and have produced one of the better lineups and pitching staffs of the season.
This Milwaukee team also has something seven of the eight other Brewers playoff teams didn’t. A 104-mph-throwing 24-year-old Cy Young, Jacob Misiorowski.
Misiorowski has been the best pitcher of 2026. He made 30 starts at a 1.80 ERA, striking out an MLB-leading 265 along the way. He spearheads a tremendous starting rotation with Logan Henderson and Kyle Harrison.
This Brewers team doesn’t have the wow-factor (outside of Misiorowski’s fastballs), but just finds ways to win. That said, this Padres team can beat anybody right now, and should advance through a thrilling series.
The Division Series
Game 1 of every series begins tomorrow, Oct. 3.
The Guardians and White Sox begin at 1 p.m. ET, and the final game of the day, Brewers-Padres, will begin at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Wild Card round is fun, but the division series is where October baseball gets real and contenders are tested.
The Braves will get the first shot at knocking off the two-time defending champs. The White Sox have an opportunity to play for the World Series after losing 121 games just two years ago.
Two of the AL’s best meet earlier than they should. And can the Padres really beat the Brewers?
All of those questions and more will be answered next week.
Buckle up, baseball fans.
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