The most common postseason opponents in NBA history meet again as the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers will square off for their 23rd playoff series. Boston holds a 15-7 edge in the all-time matchup and hopes to extend its lead as the rivals clash in the first round.
Boston enters as a heavy favorite, especially with Joel Embiid’s playing status unknown. He is expected to miss the start of the playoffs following an emergency appendectomy, with no clear timetable for his return.
Philadelphia is too talented to overlook. The Celtics have to be keyed in on the opponent in front of them. Truthfully, though, they have their eyes set on greater things than this first-round matchup. That’s not to say they can take the 76ers lightly, but within this series, there are elements that may be telling for Boston’s championship aspirations.
Here are three key factors to watch as the Celtics begin their chase for Banner 19.
Tyrese Maxey Attacking Drop Coverage
Two trends collide in this matchup: Tyrese Maxey’s continued rise and Boston’s increased reliance on drop coverage.
Maxey, the 2024 Most Improved Player, elevated his game again this season. He posted career-highs across the board while emerging as one of the league’s top pick-and-roll creators. His combination of burst and pull-up shooting makes him particularly effective against drop coverage, when bigs stay low against screens to be in position to protect the paint.
The Celtics made a philosophical change to lean more into drop coverage this season. Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis were two of the NBA’s best perimeter-defending bigs during their tenures with the Celtics. Asking centers to guard in space is a difficult ask. With Boston’s relative front court inexperience entering this season, Joe Mazzulla elected to put his centers in a safer position — using drop coverage.
However, Boston’s potential road to the Finals will test the viability of that strategy. Maxey is the first of several opponents standing in the way of another Celtics championship who thrives scoring off pick-and-rolls. Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Cade Cunningham, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all join Maxey in the NBA’s top 10 of points created out of pick-and-rolls.
Mazzulla will have to find the right balance. Boston has shown an ability to adjust mid-game. The April 7 win over the Charlotte Hornets is a prime example. In that contest, the Celtics adjusted from a deep drop to playing up on LaMelo Ball’s pick-and-roll operation. After erupting for 34 points through the first 28.5 minutes, Ball was held without a field goal make for the rest of the game.
Neemias Queta offers the mobility to execute those looks when needed. Even Nikola Vučević in that Hornets game generated some stops when stepping up. The Celtics will likely rely on drop coverage for their base defense, but how the Celtics choose to guard Maxey will be a data point for future series.
Limiting Turnovers
If Philadelphia is going to upset Boston, it needs to win the possession battle. The Celtics thrive on shot margin by limiting turnovers and being aggressive on the offensive glass. They don’t let many possessions go to waste.
The 76ers are opportunistic by generating and capitalizing on turnovers. They finished sixth in steals per game and ninth in transition efficiency. Paul George’s return from suspension only amplifies that pressure. His ability to generate steals, a longtime staple of his game, can add another layer of disruption.
Boston finished the regular season with the fewest turnovers in the league, but that number ticked up late in the year.
As long as the Celtics avoid gifting Philadelphia extra possessions, they can dictate this series.
Nikola Vučević and the Center Rotation
The integreation of Vučević hasn’t gone as smoothly as hoped. Once viewed as a potential playoff starter, he now finds himself battling with Luka Garza for backup duties. The competition a reflection on both Garza’s emergence and Vučevič’s imperfect assimilation.
All three centers may be required if Embiid comes back. The Celtics will need all of the bodies they can get to absorb fouls and provide adequate physicality.
If Embiid can’t play, Andre Drummond’s minutes may be the key to Vučević getting a chance to prove himself. Drummond has been one of the league’s best rebounders since entering the league — and is the NBA’s all-time leader in rebounds per 100 possessions (22.6). He finished the regular season with a 14.5 offensive rebound rate, which ranked fifth among all players with at least 41 games played.
Similar to the turnover conversation, as long as Boston wins the margins, they should have this series in the bag. Vučević is the Celtics’ best pure defensive rebounding big. While it may feel silly to gameplan around Drummond of all people, Boston may have a date with Mitchell Robinson in the second round, who has disrupted plenty of Celtics-Knicks games in the past couple of years. Mazzulla may use this opportunity against Drummond and an inferior 76ers team to test the viability of Vooch’s minutes come the home stretch.
Preparing for What’s Ahead
Internally, the Celtics will emphasize focus and discipline — standard messaging for any playoff series.
But the reality is bigger than this matchup. Boston’s goals extend well beyond the first round. How it handles details — coverages, turnovers, rebounding matchups — will say as much about its plans for a deeper postseason run.
This series may be the opening step, but it’s also an early test of the habits that define title teams.
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