Are the Denver Nuggets Still Title Contenders?

The Denver Nuggets have had a rollercoaster year.

Nikola Jokić is still establishing himself as the defining player of his era with another MVP campaign. Denver still resides at the top of the Western Conference standings, but the seams are starting to tear.

Curious losses to the Wizards, Trail Blazers, and nearly-Luka-less Lakers have stained their last month of games. They have some great wins over the Thunder, Rockets, and Warriors (without Jokić and Jamal Murray), but Denver is not the juggernaut it was in previous years.

Some disturbing trends are starting to emerge that could plague the Nuggets come playoff time, which even Jokić might not be able to make up for.

Nuggets Have Increasing Defensive Woes

If the Nuggets hope to make playoff noise, they need to defend again— it is the largest chink in their armor.

This season has been a major setback for the Nuggets’ defense, and the uncharacteristic losses to lesser teams have been largely due to Denver’s inability to get stops.  They are currently 22nd in the league in defensive points per 100 possessions at 116.5. Last season, they finished ninth with 113.3 points per 100 and were third in defensive eFG%.

The situation has grown dire as of late.

Kirk Goldsberry‘s renowned ‘Efficiency Landscape’ charts plot teams’ net efficiency with offensive efficiency on the x-axis and defensive efficiency on the y-axis. It’s a great way to see where teams stand compared to the rest of the league. The latest version of the landscape reveals some interesting notes.

First, OKC has pulled away. As they have been for most of the season, they are first in net efficiency, offensive efficiency, and second in defensive efficiency, all of which have culminated in the Thunder’s first 60-win season since the KD-Russ days.

Second, the Clippers have unexpectedly nestled into the elite class of teams. They hold the second-best net efficiency, with better offense and defense than teams like Boston and Cleveland. Another tough break for Paul George.

Finally, and most troubling for fans of the 5280, the Nuggets sit squarely on the ‘Negative Teams’ side of the line of demarcation. Their 26th-ranked defense falls below the Mavericks, Spurs, and even Wizards.

Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and his perimeter defense in free agency could be one explanation for this defensive descent. Maybe Nikola Jokic‘s lack of rim protection is even more pronounced than in previous years. Either way, Denver’s defensive issues do not bode well for the postseason.

If you were to remove the Nuggets’ reputation and past success, and consider Goldsberry’s most recent Efficiency Landscape chart, one would hardly take them seriously as a playoff team, let alone a contender.

Lack of Depth Could Be Fatal Come Playoffs

The Nuggets are dreadfully undermanned, especially compared to their Western Conference peers.

Denver’s starting lineup (excluding Aaron Gordon, who’s been dealing with injuries throughout the year) all play above 33 minutes per game; Jokic plays the most at 36, an above-average seasonal workload for him.

The non-Jokic minutes have caused constant conversation in Denver. Not only is the bench subpar, but the entire starting lineup of Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Gordon, and Murray has to take on an increased workload because of the bench.

Subpar might not be harsh enough. The Nuggets likely have a maximum of six players they can trust in a big postseason spot.

Russell Westbrook has provided real value as an offseason addition. He’s been an effective defensive facilitator who creates offensive poetry with Jokic in the paint while doing dirty work on the glass. His value will be diminished in the playoffs, however, if he still doesn’t bring any spacing or three-point shooting to the Nuggets rotation. Westbrook is shooting 33.3% from three this season, which is above his career average of 30.6%, but still lacking.

Aside from Westbrook, there aren’t any inspiring choices off the Nuggets’ bench. Julian Strawther was a defensive liability before suffering a knee injury a month ago. Dario Saric hasn’t cracked the rotation in months, and Zeke Nnaji is averaging fewer minutes than DeAndre Jordan‘s fossil.

The Nuggets will likely play a six-man rotation, maybe seven, in the playoffs. This puts them at a distinct disadvantage in a league where depth is a key factor in success. The Celtics, Thunder, Rockets, and Cavs simply have more options at their disposal and more opportunities to give starters rest.

Are the Nuggets Still Title Contenders?

The Nuggets are still a very good team. In the midst of another MVP campaign and having one of the best seasons in NBA history, Nikola Jokic has continued his ascent. He’s even added 65-foot Eurosteps to his bag.

Jamal Murray is starting to look like his springy, shifty self. Aaron Gordon is getting healthy at the right time, and Christian Braun is making a real case for Most Improved Player.

Still, their shortcomings could prove too much to overcome. Teams that don’t defend and don’t have an eight-player rotation rarely play in June, and Nikola Jokic’s seemingly limitless greatness might not be enough this time.