After 99 days on the injured list, Aaron Judge has been activated for his return to the New York Yankees. For three agonizing months, Yankees fans have been holding their breath, waiting for this news. Finally, on day 100, the captain is back in the Bronx.
Judge took his first swings since May 31 on Friday in San Diego. Then on the Yankees’ off day, Judge faced live pitching in the Bronx for the first time. Racing against the clock before the regular season ends, the back-to-back MVP will rejoin the lineup against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
It seems the Yankees will treat the upcoming Rockies series as Judge’s rehab assignment, which tells you more about how bad the Rockies are. The Yankees will now keep five outfielders with the addition of Judge. While no one knows the Yankees’ exact plan besides themselves, expect days off in between games before building up to a regular schedule.
As it stands, the Yankees are four games back of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. With three weeks remaining on the schedule, including a crucial four-game set against the Rays. Judge’s eager return couldn’t come at a better time, but is throwing him immediately into a pennant race the right thing to do without any buildup?
It’s not ideal having Judge back in for just half of the game, but it’s far better than not having him at all.
The Offense Desperately Needs Judge’s Presence
The offense has carried a lot of weight to stay steady since Judge’s injury, but it’s ultimately been a mess. Any time the Yankees lose their captain, plus Giancarlo Stanton, a drop-off is expected, but not this steep.
The Bronx Bombers were built to hit homers, and that’s exactly what they were doing at first. Yankees hitters put up a league-leading 122 wRC+ in May. But once injuries piled up, they had to play small-ball and dropped to the fifth-worst wRC+ the next month. Whether the blame lies with the roster construction or not, Judge’s presence means everything to this offense.
Since then, the Yankees have coasted through the second half, grinding out close games and, thankfully, winning most of them due to their outstanding pitching staff. The offense has proven to be anything but as reliable as the arms. One night it’s double-digit runs, and the next game is a one-run dud, leaving fans begging for a league-average offense. The main driver of this pattern is the bats collapsing continuously in the first inning.
Their inability to score in the first inning without Judge anchoring the top of the order has been brutal. The Yankees succeed when scoring early. Last season, Judge led the league in first-inning homers with 20. In total, the Yankees clubbed 50 home runs and 113 runs in the first inning of last year.
This year, they’ve homered only 29 times and scored 69 runs. In August, they scored just once in the first inning out of the 28 games played. The sudden loss of the first-punch advantage has forced New York into nail-biters, exposing a lineup incapable of manufacturing runs without Judge.
The power outage at the top of the order has created a ripple effect throughout the rest of the lineup. This mostly affects big hitters like Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, who thrive off the protection Judge offers when slotted in.
Rice’s and Bellinger’s splits with and without Judge are astronomical to the Yankees’ success. Rice was a 1.056 OPS player and then dropped almost 300 points to a .788 OPS without Judge. Bellinger has had the same fate; he had a .855 OPS with Judge but then plummeted to a .660 OPS when he’s not there.
Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones summed it up best after Saturday’s win: “Getting Cap back in the lineup is going to be huge for everybody.”
A Black Hole of Right-Handed Power
Since Judge hit the injured list, the Yankees’ right-handed bats have been the worst in baseball, floundering at an abysmal 77 wRC+, which ranks last in the league. Take away 38-year-old Paul Goldschmidt‘s league-average production and the remaining seven righties are almost free outs for any opposing pitcher.
To stop the bleeding, New York acquired Heliot Ramos from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline. Ramos was brought over to punish left-handers but has done the complete opposite. Instead, he has punished the team’s ability to come through in big moments. Penciled directly into the three-hole to balance the lineup, Ramos has slashed .145/.289/.261 with just one home run, solidifying himself as one of the worst acquisitions this summer.
Boone liked what he saw from Judge over the weekend and believes he can make an immediate impact despite no rehab assignment.
“I think it would give us a lot of balance, too, to give us that right-handed hitter,” Boone said via The New York Post. “On the days we’re facing a righty, where we got all our lefties, to have a right-handed hitter in that two-three hole, I think goes a long way. Not only potentially having his production back in there, but hopefully putting the other guys in a better spot, too.”
While getting Judge back in itself is a win, can he instantly spark what’s been a lackluster offense?
The Yankees Are Gambling With Judge’s Return
If there is one player capable of reviving a team after three months of no baseball activity, it’s Judge. The three-time MVP was hitting .248 with a .907 OPS and 17 home runs before he hit the IL. Banking on Judge to immediately perform at a superhero level after missing months is a dangerous gamble.
The 34-year-old is coming off a fractured rib with no rehab assignment. Despite the Double-A affiliate being home this week, Judge pushed to return to the Bronx as soon as possible. It’s a head-scratcher, as almost any player would have done the rehab assignment after being gone so long, but Judge isn’t most players. Plus, his immediate impact outweighs any move the team could make at this point.
MLB insider Ken Rosenthal explained how the Yankees could approach Judge’s return.
“Three innings one night, five innings the next, seven innings the game after that in this buildup,” Rosenthal said on Foul Territory. The other approach is to “Play Judge as much as you can, let’s say in the first game. … Give him the next day off. Maybe in the next day, he plays seven more (innings).”
That’s why a rehab assignment made the most sense so that he can replicate the physicality of a nine-inning game. He has repeatedly said that going to the minors wastes at-bats, but the Yankees are facing the Colorado Rockies. If a $300 million team can’t beat the Rockies without Judge, then is there any hope left come October?
Whether the Yankees choose either approach, they have to make sure to protect him from himself. A healthy Judge is necessary to win but not sufficient to win it all. It’s going to take the whole lineup clicking on all cylinders for his return to matter.
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