Connor Bedard is producing his best season to date. Despite this, he still has more to prove, which is a testament to how good he can really be.
Ever since he was a teenager, Bedard has been bestowed the ‘generational‘ tag by many. This term is typically overused, but it’s hard to say it wasn’t the case for him. His shot was, and still is, otherworldly, and he has played with professional-level poise since he entered the league. You could argue that he is contributing to a newly revolutionized way in which the youth approach the sport.
At this point, he is one of the few positive players on the Blackhawks, but it hasn’t always been pretty with him. His teammates and the nature of the rebuild take the majority of the blame for the Blackhawks’ shortcomings. Bedard, however, has not always been the leader this blossoming squad needs.
Bedard’s Late-Season Inconsistency
One of the major learning curves in the NHL is consistency. Sometimes, it takes players years to figure out how to mold their game into a night-in, night-out positive. Since the trade deadline, Bedard has been rather spotty. He has had decent runs at times, but has been lackluster in other areas.
That’s not to say he needs to be posting three points a night. In fact, this ultimately points to a lack of help throughout the lineup. If he is having an off night, the Blackhawks have only a few players who can step up. However, compounding a zero-point night with a -4 against a resting Carolina Hurricanes team makes this inconsistency more concerning.
Can the face of the franchise, likely the future captain, consistently provide value? So far, he hasn’t proven that.
Game Score
@HockeyStatCards on ‘X’ has done an excellent job at collecting player game scores this season. There are many variables at play, but ultimately, the higher up on the list the better. The cards also separate forwards, defensemen, and goaltending. If a player is above zero, they had a net positive impact on the game.
Of course, negative would mean the opposite. Because stats to the left of the centerline are negative, team success can be measured by how much space is on the right of the 0.0 line compared to the left.
On these cards, Bedard struggles to sit at the top. In fact, more often than not, he’s being eclipsed by his teammates. Since March 9, Bedard has carried an average game score of 0.88. Zach Benson, Blake Coleman, and Jared McCann all sit directly ahead of Bedard. These three players are far from cornerstone pieces, and yet he sits below them.
This model notably does not factor in teammate quality. Across the team, Bedard’s 0.88 leads the Blackhawks, with Tyler Bertuzzi and Frank Nazar sitting behind him. Ryan Greene and Andre Burakovsky, Bedard’s linemates for a majority of the season, have 0.16 and 0.11, respectively. It’s undeniable that Bedard needs better linemates, but absolving him of any criticism would be a severe misstep.
Plus/Minus Stat
It’s a flawed stat at times, but also extremely telling in context. Overall, Connor has improved in this stat, steadily rising from -44 in his rookie year to -16 this season. In 18 games since the trade deadline, 14 have been zero or a minus game for Bedard. Oftentimes, his linemates or the defense pairing are to blame. Others, he is just as much a contributor to poor defensive zone play as his teammates.
Above is a textbook example. In a neutral zone faceoff, Bedard is unable to snap it back, and the Hurricanes end up with possession. Bedard has been better at the faceoff dot than previously, but still isn’t quite where he needs to be. Then, linemate Nick Lardis fails to maintain the blue line. Defenseman Rinzel gets burned along the boards, which is exactly when Bedard needs to haul it and disrupt, something he fails to do. This ultimately leads to a one-on-four solo effort and an inexcusable goal against.
The point isn’t to pin the blame on Bedard; it’s to outline exactly what has been the Blackhawks issue this season. The overall units struggle to complement one another’s play, leading to busted coverage in the defensive zone. It’s why the team concedes the second-most shots against per game, an honor the netminders have handled well. Regardless, the chemistry needs to be improved so that mistakes do not snowball. The cornerstone player, the face of the franchise, needs to lead that improvement.
Connor Bedard Is Still Young, and That’s Very Exciting
Stats are important, but they aren’t snapping pucks around the offensive zone. They aren’t shredding defenses and taking ankles. They aren’t exposing the goaltenders’ short-side corner. Bedard is among the most skilled players in hockey, and it doesn’t take much more than watching a game or two of his to recognize that.
Two things can be true at once. Bedard is an incredible talent with potential as high as we have ever seen. He simply hasn’t lived up to the game-wrecking generational standards that were unfairly placed on him at such a young age. That’s not to say that he never will, nor that he absolutely has to, but he certainly has to take his game to the next level.
Linemates do matter, and a top-2 pick in the draft would open up many possibilities for who will play with him long term. Regardless, Bedard’s trajectory is that of the entire Blackhawks rebuild – patience is key. With one of the youngest rosters in hockey and arguably the best U23 player pool, the Blackhawks are still looking up as they build on a year that saw some marginal improvements. Connor Bedard has to ascend into the next tier to lead his team back to the playoffs.
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