For fantasy managers concerned with the first three games, it can be hard to distinguish what is a blip on the radar (see last year’s Saints) and what is more concrete. The Panic Meter aims to provide some clarity and ease of mind for players who have a disappointing start to the year.
Three weeks of games provide clarity and a better idea of how to gauge some teams and outcomes. The Panic Meter will help managers predict whether to stay the course or find greener pastures.
The meter gauges panic on a scale from 0% to 100%. The way to think about it is that 0% panic is like having Josh Allen: safe, reliable, consistent points that you can rely on every week with no fear. 100% panic is the inverse, and is exactly as it sounds. Fear and terror about the player is justified, odds are they’re a bust, and cutting them seems likely and inevitable.
*The Meter is based on Full-PPR, traditional scoring, and non-superflex settings
Running Backs
Omarion Hampton – 15% Panic
Hampton hasn’t lived up to his mid-teens and RB2 hopes, but no drastic actions should be needed.
Over the first two weeks, Hampton was averaging 5.8 PPG and 3.1 YPG before breaking through in Week 3 against Denver. He is currently the RB18, which matches his preseason projection of RB17.
While he hasn’t looked perfect, Hampton appears to be a victim of circumstance more than anything. For one, The Chargers’ offense under OC Greg Roman has inexplicably become an air-raid, pass first offense. Six of their seven touchdowns have been through the air, and have passed on 59.9% of plays. Justin Herbert is playing the best ball of his career, so maybe the Chargers are striking while the iron is hot. Regardless, no one predicted a Greg Roman offense would look like this.
Despite the turn to the air, Hampton should be viable going forward. Tragically, Najee Harris isn’t a factor in the Charger’s backfield anymore, and even before his injury, Hampton had some factors in his corner. He plays on 72% of the Chargers snaps, is a great running back prospect who’s still learning the ropes, and the passing touchdowns are due for some regression. A slower start should be just that.
Isiah Pacheco – 95% Panic
You’d think the stagnant Chiefs passing game would mean good things for their backfield. Instead, Pacheco seems to have lost his bell cow role in an already struggling run game.
The feather in Pacheco’s cap was his snap count and role in the backfield, but that’s now in question. He’s only played 55% of snaps through the first three games, sharing duties with Kareem Hunt.
To be splitting snaps evenly with Hunt, who has aged poorly (to put it kindly), is pretty disturbing. Pacheco has only had one carry inside the 15-yard-line, and only 3.7 Y/A in general, as well as 92 total rushing yards. If he isn’t the lead back in KC, isn’t getting red zone touches, and doesn’t make the most of the carries he does get, what’s the pitch?
The Giants have a pretty bad rushing defense to start the year, and Pacheco was once again irrelevant in Week 3 on Sunday night. The meter is scarred and it’s time to declare him unstartable. The season is too long to suffer like that.
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. – 65% Panic
BTJ might be the most disappointing of all the first rounders.
The Jags wideout is currently the WR53, has seven total receptions, and 4.6 YDS/TGT. This is far from his WR1 projection, and especially stings since he was a lot of people’s first or high second pick.
Hope is fleeting, but not totally lost. Thomas Jr. has a high amount of volume through three games, which bodes well for the future. Volume of his caliber almost always finds a way to translate to production. He hasn’t had less than seven targets in a game, and HC Liam Coen assured more are on the way.
Assuming the volume comes home to roost, he should match his projections more closely in future games. The Jags are also top half of the league in EPA per play, shockingly.
Despite volume, there is just as much cause for concern. The Jags and Trevor Lawrence faces some good defenses in the next few weeks. Thomas Jr. himself appears just off, deep in his own head, shirking from contact, and not extending for catches.
Lawrence’s inaccuracy continues to plague the passing game. It’s rough film. Two of these poor outings came against two of the worst defenses in the league in Carolina and Cincinnati, too, where one would think he’d have his better games of the season. It’s just as likely he turns it around as it is he doesn’t, which probably isn’t what managers want to hear.
Terry McLaurin – 20% Panic
Terry has underwhelmed but it honestly was to be expected. McLaurin was coming off two games under 50 yards before turning in 74 against Las Vegas, and sits as the WR55. He’s had a couple rough weeks, but he’s just finished off a contract holdout that didn’t get him back with the team until Aug. 25, so there’s a lot of rust to shake off.
The schedule did him no favors either. After a tough game against a division rival, they went on the road Lambeau to play the elite Packers defense on a short week.
As the season smooths out, McLaurin should come along. He has an 18% target share and is still the primary pass catching option for the Commanders. Washington’s schedule evens out, with plenty of pass-friendly defenses in coming weeks.
The Jayden Daniels knee injury is something to monitor closely, though. If it lingers, it could be brutal for McLaurin’s fantasy outlook long-term, even if Mariota played well in Week 3.
A.J. Brown – 30% Panic
A.J. Brown, much like BTJ, has been a headache for a high round pick. A player like Brown can be very frustrating: a highly drafted good player on a good team that consistently underperforms, while teasing a huge game. It’s a terrible spot to be in.
Brown was the WR83 before jumping to WR38 after a huge Week 3. He combined for under 10 points in his two outings before more than doubling it against the Rams.
The most unsettling number is Brown’s yards per target, which has averaged 8.0 and 3.4 in games one and two respectfully. He was targeted eight times against the Chiefs, but all on very short throws.
Jalen Hurts looked downfield more last Sunday, connecting with Brown for a few big plays that reminded fans of his ability. The bulk of Brown’s suffering is a result of the current Eagles offensive paradigm, where Jalen Hurts isn’t throwing past 10 yards unless they’re down, and the run game makes up close to 60% of the snaps.
What is the most likely outcome is the Eagles season mirror’s last year’s, and as Eagles come along so will Brown. Many forget, but the Eagles started slow last September before going on a tear that led to a title. They were 2-2 entering Week 5, struggled in the passing game, and had similar vibes to the current ones.
Brown still possess a decent target share at 36.4%. Bunker down for a little longer and have patience.
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