In his now-eighth season in the NBA, Luka Doncic is averaging a whopping 28.6 points per game for his career; the Slovenian is ranked third all-time in that category.
Yet one award has surprisingly managed to elude him thus far in his career: the MVP trophy.
In this first full season with the Lakers, however, he will finally capture it.
Just Not Quite There Yet
Up until last season, Luka had made five straight All-NBA First Team Selections. The 2023-24 season was the closest he got to the MVP, as he ended up third in the race behind Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals that year before the Boston Celtics defeated them swiftly.
Last season, Luka suffered a disruption to his momentum. He only played 50 games, and the Mavericks traded him to the Lakers mid-season. They cited improper conditioning and weight as the reason, but fans weren’t buying it. Luka was special to Dallas, and that just was not a proper reason to trade him.
He was still a phenomenal player. Fans speculated that Mavericks owner Patrick Dumont may not have wanted to pay up despite his denial.
Regardless, the change of scenery resulted in a change of personnel type as well. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II set numerous screens for Luka in every game with the Mavericks. This opened opportunities for Luka to lob the ball to them or kick it out to shooters when help defenders rotated.
Anthony Davis was the primary screen-setter for the Lakers early on last season. But when executive Rob Pelinka traded him for Luka, they were left without a reliable, starter-level big man. Thus, Luka came onto a team without players that complemented his style.
Instead, he came onto a Lakers team that already had multiple primary ball handlers. LeBron James, Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht were among the Lakers players who were much better when the ball was in their hands.
There were just too many chefs for that pot, and the Timberwolves knocked out the Lakers in five games in the first round of the playoffs.
Flipping The Page In Hollywood
While many of the major pieces of last year’s Lakers roster remain this year, Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart are two key players who should complement Luka well.
Furthermore, as LeBron continues to age, the team will rely more and more on Luka. He will probably average more points and assists, and complementary pieces will boost team success and his efficiency.
It is clear that last year’s trade took a toll on Luka’s assist and efficiency numbers. He averaged the lowest assist numbers (7.5 assists per game) and field goal percentage (43.8%) since his rookie year in the 28 games with LA.
This season is off to a good start, though, as, through two games, Luka is averaging 46 points, 11.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists on 62% shooting. His visual appearance and fitness level has improved as well, as he may have taken Nico Harrison’s comments about his fitness to heart.
He appears to be in much better shape and was even on the cover of Men’s Health magazine a few months ago. While he did suffer an injury to his finger and leg, he should be back soon, so it should not derail his MVP case.
Voter Fatigue and Biases
NBA MVP voter fatigue is a real thing. Voters often get tired of seeing the same players win MVP, causing them to vote for new winners. Players often have trouble winning the trophy three seasons in a row. In addition, former MVPs such as LeBron have had trouble winning it in later, deserving seasons, such as 2018, even if they didn’t win it the year prior.
While, of course, the reigning MVP SGA is only a one-time winner, many of the expected competitors are former multi-time MVPs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry and LeBron James will all battle voter fatigue should they enter the conversation for the award.
SGA, though, will battle a different problem. Basketball fans and journalists have voiced their concerns about his foul-baiting tactics. People have taken note of his exceptional skill at drawing fouls, allowing him to gain easy points at the free-throw line. This bias may make people lean away from voting for him. And for anyone who questions that, just look at James Harden in 2019.
Luka Doncic is one of, if not the best, basketball players on the planet today. For him, winning the MVP award is a matter of “when,” not “if.” And with factors both on the court and in the voting ballots in his favor, he will finally receive his recognition early next year.
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