For the first time since the 2015-16 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be missing the playoffs. With the team struggling on the ice, a crucial offseason lies ahead.
As a result, there is growing pressure to ensure that the prime years of Captain Auston Matthews are not wasted. Now, ownership and management face a defining choice. They must commit fully to a championship push. Or, they need to initiate a reset and rebuild the organization’s depth for the future.
How Did Toronto Get Here?
Year 2 of Craig Berube behind the bench in Toronto has been disastrous.
After finishing first in the Atlantic division last season, there were still plenty of questions about how this roster would perform. The loss of Mitch Marner hurt this team massively. In an attempt to try and replace the team’s leading scorer from the prior season, Toronto brought in Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy. Both have been underwhelming in their Leafs debuts.
As much as Berube will likely take the blame for the shortcomings of this team, there wasn’t much he could do. A coach known for having a hard-nosed, gritty team, taking after his personality, didn’t match the roster in Toronto. All signs point to Berube now being on his way out. However, the mismanagement of assets has shown the shortcomings of GM Brad Treliving.
Treliving’s Toronto Mishaps
Treliving has shown a willingness to move out prospects and picks to try to get his team over the hump.
The last trade deadline saw him move out the team’s 2026 and 2027 first-round draft picks. He also moved top prospect Fraser Minten in return for veterans, Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. Fast forward to now. Fraser Minten, in his first full season, is outscoring both Laughton and Carlo combined. On top of that, the 2026 first-round pick looks like it may just land inside the top ten for a division rival in Boston.
Two massive pieces that would show hope for Toronto’s future plans are now out the door. While the Leafs do have top-five protection on the 2026 first-rounder, they are now in the hands of the draft lottery to determine their future. Treliving has given Leafs fans a bottom-five prospect pool in the NHL. Additionally, they lack high draft picks to restock the cupboards in Toronto.
More than anything, the clock is ticking. Matthews has two years left on his contract. Now the question arises: Can the Leafs find a way to win in those two years? The roster has a lot of holes. Without a plethora of young talent ready to step up, the Leafs will have to find the keys to a championship roster elsewhere.
What are Toronto’s Options?
Now, where does Toronto go from here?
They are more than just a few small moves away from being a true cup contender. The team will have to rely heavily on a return to elite form from Matthews. He will be recovering from a grade-three MCL tear suffered in March this season. There’s also the possibility that the team will be looking for a new head coach to make an impression on the roster. And without much draft capital, it will be hard to bring in the players needed to make this team a threat.
After only making the second round twice in their nine-season playoff streak, it might be time to go in a different direction. As a team that faces more scrutiny from its fans than anyone else in the NHL, is there a chance they think about moving on from Auston Matthews? While it is a rash decision, the organization needs to answer if they are ok with losing their star player and captain for potentially nothing in free agency.
How the Marner Situation Affects Now
Toronto just faced a similar scenario with Marner the prior summer. After deciding to keep him without an extension through the trade deadline, the team showed a commitment to winning a cup.
With being knocked out by the Panthers and failing to accomplish the ultimate goal, all the Leafs had to show for Marner’s time in Toronto is Nicholas Roy. Now, eight months later, Roy has already been traded. The mismanagement of Marner has put them where they are today. They can’t afford to make the same mistake again.
Why They Should Move Matthews
Here’s why now is the time to move on from Matthews. With the salary cap going up next season, teams will be eager to use that extra money to their advantage. Even coming off a major injury, Matthews’ value is still sky high. He has one of the best shots in the league and a knack for scoring that very few have. The team should be demanding, at the very least, a young, promising forward and defenseman with NHL experience. In addition, they should look for a high-end prospect and picks on top of that.
It would take a return similar to the Quinn Hughes trade that saw him go from Vancouver to Minnesota as the benchmark. Will this get the team immediately over the hump? No. But it now gives them a new cup window. It also gives assets back to a team that desperately needs more. The included term on Matthews’ contract would make more teams eager and willing to make the trade for the forward.
What Happens If They Don’t?
Let’s look at the flip side of this. It’s far more likely that this team holds onto Matthews and tries to make things work. After all, he is a two-way center who is a generational goal scorer. A unicorn. If the Leafs can find a way to show their captain that the future can still provide a Stanley Cup, he may just stick around past the last two years of his deal.
The two top offseason priorities for Toronto would be a top-four defenseman who can log close to 20 minutes a night. As well as a solidified top-six forward who isn’t afraid to get involved physically. Just as important is an overhaul of the team’s depth at each position. This would help find players who can change the culture.
There are two players who, as of right now, are set to hit the open market in July that Toronto needs to target. Those two players are Alex Tuch and Rasmus Andersson. Tuch fits perfectly into the top six and can bring a physical edge similar to Mathew Knies. His physicality will create space for their more skilled forwards. Andersson would add an element of puck movement that the Leafs heavily lack on the right side of their blue line.
The Answer is Up to Management
The stakes and pressure of upcoming decisions loom large in Toronto as ever. The current team is clearly not capable of winning a Stanley Cup. Now it’s up to the Leafs brass to decide what direction to take. If the roster is left as is, they will remain mediocre, a borderline playoff team but not a serious cup contender. This has led to a revolving door of head coaches and GMs over the last ten years. Or the team can roll the dice on a bold decision.
Whether that’s deciding to go all in for the last two years of Matthews contract or taking an even bigger risk on trading their captain for a massive haul. Either way, it will be the defining moment for the future of Leafs hockey.
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