It feels like forever since the Bucks gave up 134 points at home to the Nuggets, but the All-Star break is finally behind us and Milwaukee has 25 games to position themselves for optimal playoff success. 32-25 doesn’t feel great and there are certainly a lot of games we’d like to have back, but considering the team was sitting at 25-30 at the break in 2017 there are reasons to be optimistic. Their remaining schedule won’t be a cakewalk, 15 of the teams Milwaukee will see have a record of .500 or better and the Bucks are currently 12-19 against teams above that mark. If you look at the remaining schedule from a purely mathematic standpoint you could estimate they’ll win 35% of those 15 games which would lead to 6 wins and 9 losses. They’d also win 77% percent of their games against teams below the .500 mark, 77% of 10 games is 7.7, we’ll round that up and say 8 wins and 2 losses. That would leave Milwaukee with a record of 14-11 over their final 25 games and 46-36 overall.
After winning 41 games last year I think most reasonable Bucks fans would have set their expectations for the team at 45 wins with 50 being the ceiling. So 46 W’s being a safe bet at this point should put a lot of people at ease and should be enough for at least a 5 seed in the East. Having said that, I, like many of you, am itching to see the Bucks finish in the top 4 so I’m going to look at each of these games individually and give a quick, off the cuff, prediction of what the Milwaukee Bucks record will be come April 12th.
Off the bat, they’re going to lose to Toronto on the road. It’s going to happen, get over it now. 0-1
Then they have the Pelicans at 2:00 on a Sunday, a time slot the Bucks have not excelled in, but New Orleans just isn’t the same threat sans-Cousins so I think this is a win. 1-1
Next up is Washington at home. The Wizards have been hot since losing John Wall (it’s almost as if the rest of the team doesn’t really like him). Despite this Milwaukee has had their number all season and since it’s a home game I’m counting another win. 2-1
The next 4 games are all against teams I, as well as the rest of Bucks Nation, feel like they should win. That feeling alone leads me to believe it’ll be a 2-2 run. I’m not entirely sure how it’ll shake out, but for fun let’s just say it’s a loss at Detroit, a loss at home vs. Indiana, a win at home vs. Philly, and win in Indiana to close it out. 4-3
Home game vs. Houston. 4-4
Here. We. Go. The next 4 games are all against teams who should be desperately trying to lose as many games as possible at this point in order to position themselves better in the lottery, while the Bucks are going to be pushing full throttle and restocked with Brogdon, Delly, Henson and Jabari all healthy. Knicks, Grizzlies, Magic, Hawks all wins. 8-4
March 19th, Cavaliers, in Cleveland. Win streaks are born to end and they already beat the Cavs once this season. 8-5
Two days later the Bucks face the Clippers in Milwaukee. It’ll be interesting to see what L.A. is at this point. They’re currently sitting in 9th in the West, just one game behind New Orleans, but with a very different look since Griffin’s departure it’s hard to say if they can contend for a playoff spot, or if they want to. The Bucks see L.A. twice in these final 25 games and I’m predicting a split. Since this game is in Milwaukee we’ll give it to the Bucks. 9-5
Next up is a game in Chicago. The Bucks lost twice to the Bulls at home, 2 games every one wants back, the second of which had me seconds away from switching my Twitter avi to that “Fire Kidd” graphic. They bounced back and handled business in Chicago the first time around and I think this is another redemption game for the Bucks. Add in the fact that the Bulls are going full tank and we’ll call this a W. 10-5
March 25 vs San Antonio. It’s a home game, Kawhi is done for the year, no one besides LaMarcus Aldridge is average over 20 minutes a game for the Spurs, the Bucks beat them in San Antonio the last time they played. Gregg Popovich is coaching. 10-6
The Bucks kickoff a west coast road trip in L.A. against the Clippers. See above. 10-7
In Oakland against the Warriors. I’d love to see Giannis go full Freak and pull off a miracle, but if you don’t think the Warriors are going to be next-level dialed in down the stretch you’ve got another thing coming. 10-8
Back in L.A. to face the Lakers. The Lakers are in a strange spot because they want to be bad, but not too bad because if their pick lands in the top 5 it goes to Boston, so they won’t necessarily be tanking. That being said the Bucks are more talented and should be more motivated to be good at this point than L.A. is to be mediocre. 11-8
The Bucks close out the road trip in Denver where redemption is spelled B-U-C-K. Personally the Bucks last game against the Nuggets didn’t concern me at all. It was clear both teams didn’t really care to be out there and not a single player on either team could be bothered to play defense. It was the last game before the All-Star break and Denver made 60% of their 3’s so they won. This should be a highly competitive game though and I expect it to be close. The Bucks have shown a lot of maturity in close games this year and I have confidence in them to pull it out. 12-8
Now we return home for a game against the Celtics. We’ve played them tough this year and they were falling apart somewhat before the break. If that trend continues this could certainly be a win for Milwaukee, but Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the league and I trust him to right the ship. This will be a close game, but I’m giving it to Boston 12-9
The next three games are against the Nets, Knicks, and Magic respectively. I mentioned something above about teams desperately trying to lose playing against teams desperately trying to win late in the season. This’ll be a nice little 3-game win streak for Milwaukee where, hopefully, they can rest a few guys and save their legs for May. 15-9
You want me to tell you the Bucks are going to finish strong with a win against the Sixers in Philadelphia, and trust me I want that to happen too. But, at this point I just feel like Philly is going to have more to play for than Milwaukee. The Sixers will be looking to secure a spot in the playoffs, whereas the Bucks will be comfortably in the 4-6 range, in no danger of missing out. The Sixers play tough at at home, Prunty rests his key guys, and the Bucks take an L to close things out. 15-10
So there you have it. My official prediction is that the Bucks will win one more game than my mathematical prediction and finish 47-35. Was all of this worth it…I’m not sure. Will this be at all accurate…almost definitely not. Although it did help my calm some anxiety and burned an hour in my Thursday afternoon so I’m calling it a personal win.
