It’s the hottest and most contested conversation in football at the moment; Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have been absolutely brilliant, and both have great cases for the 2025 MVP award.
The question at large remains: Which of the two should win it, and why?
Maye’s Marvelous Case
If someone were shown Drake Maye with no prior knowledge of his existence, they would think he’s a 10-year veteran gunning to add another MVP to his trophy case.
They’d be right about one thing — Maye, in just his second season, is right in the thick of the MVP race. This season, Maye finished with the following stats:
- 4,394 yards passing (4th)
- 31 passing touchdowns (3rd)
- 72.0% completion percentage (1st)
- 8.9 yards per attempt (1st)
The everyday stats tell the story of an elite quarterback. Drake Maye is slinging the ball downfield more than anyone, completing it better than anyone and accounting for scores with the best of the best.
Those numbers showcased don’t even feature rushing attempts, yards or touchdowns. Adding Maye’s 450 yards and four touchdowns on the ground gives him 4,844 total yards and 35 total touchdowns. Truly fantastic stuff from the second-year quarterback.
Yet, that’s not where the resume ends. If the everyday stats make Drake Maye look elite, the advanced stats put him in god status.
Where to start? How about QBR, where his 76.4 is the highest in the league. His total EPA sits at 169.54 — again, the best in football.
Pass EPA? 159.80, best in football by a mile. In terms of passer rating, he’s the best passer overall, on the road, throwing deep, vs the blitz, vs zone, etc.
Perhaps most importantly, Maye had his team winning too — The Pats ended the year division champs at 14-3. It’s all MVP caliber.
The Drawbacks
Let’s pull the brakes a bit. Maye’s main drawback to his case isn’t that he’s winning, but how he is winning.
The Patriots, through virtue of strength of schedule, have had the easiest run of any NFL team. Maye has very little credibility against the league’s best, or even those with a winning record:
That’s not even compared to his main competitor for MVP — more on him in a moment.
Maye has only faced three winning teams all season, going 1-2 in those games (1-1 vs. BUF, 0-1 vs. PIT). This, for some, puts his stats into question. It’s a fair assessment, as all stats need context, but it’s important to also point out Maye wouldn’t be the first to win an MVP with a weak schedule.
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It is a drawback, however, and it’s important to note. Does it prevent him from being MVP? Only time will tell.
Stafford’s Stellar Case
Matthew Stafford is 37 years old. Before the season began, he aggravated a disk in his back which raised serious questions about his health. Many wondered if he’d would even start the year at all.
Well, he started, shifted into eighth gear, turned on the turbo and absolutely blew the league away:
- 4,707 passing yards (1st)
- 46 passing touchdowns (1st)
- 65.0% CMP (17th)
- 7.9 yards per attempt (7th)
His ability to keep the ball out of harms way and also accumulate these volume stats is fantastic, too. Stafford posted the single highest TD% of all QB’s, whilst posting the seventh-lowest INT%. That’s with putting the ball in the air 597 times this year, the third most passing attempts in the NFL.
The advanced statistics with Stafford don’t jump off the charts like they did with Maye, but they’re still fantastic. He’s third in total EPA with 109.9, second in pass EPA in 140.93, fifth in success% with 50.85%, and fourth in QBR at 71.9.
He’s got a 109.5 passer rating (2nd), he’s the best passer in the league against the blitz per EPA, and is third in adjusted EPA/play. Terrific numbers.
His ability to perform against the best, however, is probably his biggest support case. Against teams with a winning record, Stafford himself has one at 5-3. He has 2,247 yards, 22 passing touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 108.3 against these teams. His best performances of year — like his 457 yard, 3 TD and 0 TO game in Seattle a month ago — have come against these teams.
Against playoff teams, his record falls to 4-4, but he’s good for 2,122 yards, 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. His average passer rating against these teams is 106.9, and other advanced stats further exotify his excellence:
https://twitter.com/JoshiosTweets/status/2004235186347659560?s=20
He puts the ball in the end zone, keeps it away from the other team, and is big-time in big games. In what world is that not a runaway MVP?
The Drawbacks
Well, in this world, there’s this fun thing called context. It reveals the “why” to a lot of situations, and in this case, the “why” is what Stafford is working with. Matthew Stafford is working with a soon-to-be first-team All-Pro receiver in Puka Nacua, and 34-year old Davante Adams, who is still very capable. He’s working with Sean Mcvay, one of the best offensive minds in the business.
The point is that he’s got a fountain of resources at his disposal. Many people think that this should make it easy for voters to pick Maye to win the award. It is the most VALUABLE player, after all, and getting all that help certainly makes a system easier to run, thereby making a player less valuable. Those people do have a solid point – a very solid point. Right?
Tell that to Tom Brady in 2007, who got to throw to HOFer Randy Moss. 2018 Patrick Mahomes was throwing to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, two incredible targets back then. Matt Ryan had Julio Jones in 2016 – his excellence requires no explanation. Just like schedule strength has never really affected the voting, neither has supporting cast.
It should be considered, though. Considered enough to lose Stafford the MVP? Only time will tell.
So, Who’s Your Pick?
The great thing about this race for MVP is there’s many angles to take it from, and none of them are necessary wrong at all.
Maye’s got effectiveness on his side. He pushed the ball downfield better than anyone, created points better than anyone and does it all with efficiency only matched by few before him. He led his team to a 14-3 record and a division title. Yes, he had a weak path to get here, but he is no different to MVP’s of the past. Plus, he’s done his deeds with nothing better than good talents around him. If that’s what you look for, if that sounds like the enticing story, Drake Maye is your MVP.
Stafford’s got volume. Not just any volume, either — 45+ TD’s and 4,500 passing yards in a season has only been done eight times before. He put up these volume numbers whilst keeping a very good turnover economy – of those 8 seasons, only Aaron Rodgers 2011 had more interceptions.
To drive home the “big game player” narrative, in terms of EPA/play Stafford played four of the top 10 pass defenses a total of five times. In those games, he had 1,120 yards, 13 TD’s, one INT and a passer rating of 105. His best games also came against those elite pass defenses, like his 5 TD performance against Jacksonville and the aforementioned trip to Seattle.
He won 12 games with one of the hardest schedules in the league, he took home the passing title and threw the most touchdowns. Yes, he’s got a cast of all-stars around him, but it’s arguable that he is the biggest all-star of them all. If that’s the story that pulls you in the most, then Matthew Stafford is your MVP.
It’s hard to go wrong either way.
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