Last season was a resounding success for the Denver Broncos. They finished tied for the best record in football and were one healthy ankle away from a Super Bowl appearance.
Going into this year, expectations for the Broncos are higher. Bo Nix is entering his third year, Denver added firepower in star receiver Jaylen Waddle, and the defensive and offensive lines have established themselves as elite. Anything short of a deep playoff run would be a disappointment for Denver fans.
Still, though, this team has plenty of haters. These fans don’t believe in Nix, and they think last year was a fluke. In fact, most predictions don’t even have Denver winning the division. ESPN’s computer model has the Chiefs winning, while Yahoo Sports’ supercomputer favors the Chargers. The computer projections, though, are just the tip of the iceberg when factoring in the opinions of fans, sportsbooks, and the media.
Despite an incredible last season and a stellar, well-preserved roster, these haters still have it out for the Broncos. Nevertheless, the reality is that, at the bare minimum, Denver will win the division.
And what’s more: it won’t be close.
Removing the Las Vegas Raiders Out of the Equation
The Raiders don’t have any chance of winning the division, so no need to waste much time on them.
Admittedly, they are on the upswing. Fernando Mendoza and Brock Bowers serve as an intriguing duo. They invested plenty into their offensive line, which is always advantageous. Doing so will also allow those aforementioned duo to shine.
Unfortunately, their defense has more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese. They were fortunate to keep Maxx Crosby, but he will once again be a one-man show on the defensive line. The passing game will be their ultimate kryptonite, both offensively and defensively. With one of the worst receiving cores and secondaries in the league, they will get torched defensively and get shut down on offense.
If they can shore up their defense and add another weapon in the passing game, the Raiders could be a team to watch out for — in the near future. As for this year, expect to find them towards the bottom of the standings.
Can the Chargers Challenge the Broncos?
There’s tons to be excited about with this Chargers team. Going from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel is an indisputably promising move. They also upgraded their offensive line, which was easily their most profound need. Their defense is also still fantastic, and the whole NFL world knows what Justin Herbert is capable of.
However, there is still plenty to be wary of. First and foremost is their unfortunate injury history. For reasons unknown, the Chargers’ offensive line, and their team in general, just never seem to stay healthy. Tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are undoubtedly fantastic, but they both missed serious time last year with leg injuries. In fact, Slater is still recovering from his. Meanwhile, Tyler Biadasz, their new center, is already out for the season. After having one of the worst offensive lines in football, they did a great job of addressing their need. However, injuries are still a cause for concern.
Making predictions based solely on injuries is unjust, but they have more to worry about. Herbert is an incredible talent, and his arm strength and accuracy are top-tier. However, he has a tragic habit of not showing up when he needs to. Hebert is now 0-3 in the playoffs. In one of those games, his team blew a 27-0 lead, while in the other, his team put up only three points. Herbert has been successful in the regular season, but has yet to lead the Chargers to more than 11 wins or a divisional title. In fact, the Chargers haven’t won the division since 2009.
The Chargers Cannot Keep Up With the Broncos
Simply put, the Broncos and Chargers aren’t too different from one another. Both have tremendous defenses and offensive lines, an experienced head coach, and a strong-armed Oregon quarterback. However, the Broncos are still better in the trenches, even with the Chargers’ new signings.
Additionally, while Herbert chokes, Nix rises to the pressure. Nix made the AFC Championship in just his second year and has strung together clutch performance after clutch performance. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the better receiving core, better pass rushers, and arguably the best secondary in the league. The Chargers are a team to watch out for, but they don’t seem to be better than Denver in any particular area.
The Collapsing Chiefs Will Not Contend With the Broncos
Hype around the Chargers is understandable. There is potential that McDaniel unlocks Herbert, the offensive line stays strong, and the young defense continues to shine. These are all perfectly reasonable hypotheticals that could enable the Chargers to grab first in the division. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have no such scenarios.
The team has become a shell of what it once was. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, Travis Kelce is now 36, and the Rams poached their elite cornerback, Trent McDuffie. The Chiefs are clearly on a downward spiral. Now factor in their 6-11 record from last year, and the spiral only gains traction.
Admittedly, they made some nice moves. They got a terrific running back in Kenneth Walker and a promising cornerback in rookie Mansoor Delane. They also brought back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. However, the latter two are both past their prime, while the former two will not be enough to save this sinking ship.
Their passing game is not what it once was. Rashee Rice can’t stay on the field, Xavier Worthy is limited by his size, and none of the others in the corps have shined. Meanwhile, their defense has taken a step back as they lost three starters in their secondary as well as their linebacker, Leo Chenal.
It would take a herculean effort from Mahomes to jump-start this team and get them back into divisional contention. Ultimately, though, all dynasties have to come to an end, and the time is night for the Chiefs.
How Close Will the Other Teams Come?
The Raiders are a non-factor. Best scenario for them is a record of about 5-12. Crosby and Bowers will have their moments, and hopefully Mendoza will have his. They can probably pull off an upset or two, but with their difficult schedule, their expectations are low.
The Chiefs will likely be third with a record of about 6-11 or 7-10. Given that they finished 6-11 last year and continued to face setbacks, a similar record seems very much within reason. Maybe the new additions get them an extra game or two, but they simply lack the firepower required to post a winning record, especially in this division.
The Chargers still have a great chance of making the playoffs even if they don’t win the division. Their record could be right around the 10-7 range, which is the ballpark they’ve been in for the last few years. While they have the talent, there is still plenty that could go wrong. Between a new playcaller, a young skill position group with some question marks, and some holes in the secondary, a playoff berth is no guarantee.
The Broncos should be able to reach 12 or 13 wins this year. Some may view that number as crazy, but it isn’t as wild as it sounds. First off, they reached 14 wins last year and have improved their roster since. Secondly, factor in their schedule: two matchups against the Raiders and Chiefs each, plus the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jets — all winnable games. That should be six or seven wins alone right there, without even mentioning the other closer matchups that they should still win.
The AFC West has a ton of talent, and there are no guarantees in football.
With that said, the Broncos should easily conquer the division.
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