Many fans and analysts have described the Ivica Zubac trade as somewhat of a gamble for the Pacers. Although giving up a potential top pick in this year’s draft for a player who has never received an All-Star selection is understandably daunting, it was a smart move on Indiana’s part.
What Are the Pacers Giving Up?
The standout player from the Pacers trade with the Clippers was forward Bennedict Mathurin. Drafted sixth overall in 2022 by Indiana, Mathurin was a key bench man in Indiana’s run to the 2025 NBA Finals. He scored 27 points in Game 3 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, ultimately becoming a fan favorite during his time in Indianapolis.
However, Mathurin’s looming long-term agreement created clear complications. With no future in the starting lineup given Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard‘s contributions, it made sense to trade Mathurin.
The other player Indiana gave up for Zubac was Isaiah Jackson. The Pacers decided that his on-court production, or lack thereof, was not enough to retain his spot in Pacer’s front court.
Aside from those two players, the trade includes a 2026 first-round pick — which the Pacers protected from picks 1-4 and 10-30 — and a 2029 unprotected first-rounder. The 2026 pick will turn to an unprotected first in 2031 if it does not convey.
The point of contention of the trade has evidently been the picks the Pacers have potentially given up. However, when analyzing the potential picks in this year’s draft, it is clear that Indiana took a calculated risk that will pay off.
The Gamble
The Athletic, CBS Sports, ESPN, Sports Illustrated all have their top three players in this year’s draft as AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson — any three of which have the potential to be a franchise-altering pick.
Sam Vecenie, an NBA Draft scout for The Athletic, divides prospects in different tiers. Tier One describes players that have a strong potential for All-NBA honors, while Tier Two are players that have a strong likelihood of becoming an All-Star. Vecnie described this upcoming draft class as one of the most talented in recent memory.
“In the decade-plus that I’ve been scouting the NBA Draft, I’ve never had three players [Dybantsa, Boozer and Peterson] as Tier One prospects in a single class,” said Vecenie.
Caleb Wilson, Kingston Flemings, and Keaton Wagler have consistently been in the running to be the fourth wildcard outside of the top three.
Vecnie described them as Tier Two players and said that he has “never had at least six Tier One and Tier Two players in a draft class.” This essentially means that if the Pacers land any top four pick, they have ample talent to choose from — talent which would increase the depth of the Pacers and would impact the team from the get-go.
Finally, these picks are followed by Nate Ament, Mikel Brown Jr., Labaron Philon Jr., and Darius Acuff, who are projected to go within the five to ten range.
Despite their talent, the impact these players might have and what they bring to the table is seen as marginally lower than that of the top six. In the case the pick falls within the five-to-nine range, the value of what the Pacers miss out on becomes marginally lower than what they could potentially gain.
What Zubac Brings to the Table
In a season plagued by injuries and roster rotations, Rick Carlisle has begun to focus on competing in the 2026-27 season. The logic here is simple: either Indiana gets a pick that could shift the organization’s trajectory, or the team gives up a player who realistically would have a much smaller impact on the Pacers’ championship efforts.
Zubac has only gotten better as he has aged, making an All-Defensive team last season and finishing sixth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Furthermore, the Pacers have never had a high-end individual rebounder, and with Zubac, they get just that. Indiana is filling an immediate need at the center position while increasing the team’s physicality and offensive rebounding.
With high risk comes high reward. In this case, however, the risk is not incredibly high. Even if the Pacers miss out on a top four pick, next season, they will be able to start Tyrese Haliburton, Nesmith, Nembhard, Siakam and Zubac. This team essentially is the same one that pushed the Thunder to seven games in the NBA Finals.
With Zubac replacing Turner, he might be enough to get the Pacers over the line.
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