Watchability Stakes: Which NFL Week 1 Games Matter the Most?

Welcome to the “Watchability stakes” – a ranking of the weekly matchups ahead in the NFL. Games are tiered based on three factors: narrative, implications and general intrigue. You will be seeing The Lead’s NFL game watchability rankings at the start of the week to get you ready for football action.

At long last, the new NFL season finally arrives this week.

Not only will all 32 teams be in action to kick off the new year, but the 16-game slate also takes place over four days. It should be a pretty exciting start to the season, no matter how you slice it.

With that, The Lead is here to get you ready for game day. Every week starting now, The Lead will rank all games based purely on how much they mean. What implications does a matchup have now and at the end of the year? Which games are absolutely must-watch contests, versus ones you can catch highlights on later in the day? How big are the stakes?

Without further ado, here are the Week 1 games ranked based on which have the most intrigue:

Tier 1: Absolutely can’t miss

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Thursday @ 8:20 pm EST

• No better way to begin a new NFL season. Baltimore and KC boast two of the top-seven over-under preseason win totals (11.5 for the Chiefs, 10.5 for the Ravens). The rematch of last year’s AFC Championship makes for a pretty fun matchup. This also could be a game with legitimate playoff implications down the road with seeding.

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers – Monday @ 8:15 pm EST

• Aaron Rodgers returns to the field after his torn Achilles injury he suffered in Week 1 last season. His return comes on the lone Monday night primetime game of the week against the reigning NFL runner-ups. Fanbases on both sides will likely not feel great if their team takes a loss.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Friday @ 8:15 pm EST

• Getting the lone primetime spot on Friday night aside, this game is must-see TV. Based on last year, the arrow for the Packers is pointing up after beating Dallas and nearly doing the same versus the 49ers in the postseason. The Eagles played great last year, then crashed down to Earth. Philly is a team with a lot on the line this year, and a matchup between two of the best teams in the NFC comes with a lot of intrigue.

Tier 2: This could be fun

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• The Dak Prescott-led Dallas offense faces a tough test out of the gate versus arguably the best defense in the entire league. This is easily the game between teams from opposing conferences where the pressure is high for both to perform well this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• A sneaky-good matchup between two teams with a lot of offensive firepower and equally as much question marks. Namely, can Miami’s elite offense stay hot from last year and can Trevor Lawrence take the next step for the Jaguars? This game could be a sneak peak at what could be to come during the rest of 2024.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions – Sunday @ 8:20 pm EST

• The Sunday night game sneaks into Tier 2. Matthew Stafford is back to play against his former team, and a rejuvenated Rams team aims to sour the mood on a year of anticipation with Detroit. The Lions made the NFC Championship game last year and sit with an over-under of 10.5. L.A. is eyeing a comeback year after a down season in 2023.

Tier 3: Decent floor, high upside

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Not the most star-studded game on paper, but division matchups tend to be more fun than not. Anthony Richardson returns as (hopefully) the future quarterback for the Colts, and that comeback starts with playing an opponent with lots of expectations. Outside of Jaguars versus Dolphins, easily the best game to watch during the Sunday one o’clock window.

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• The long-awaited debut of Caleb Williams pushes this game at least to Tier 3. The Titans remain in a state of transition but can always make noise in a division like the AFC South.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Another early-afternoon game makes the cut, as Kyler Murray versus Josh Allen as the quarterback matchup remains one of the best of the week. The Bills are eyeing a return to Super Bowl contention after a rollercoaster 2023; Arizona’s arrow can only go up from here. The Cards could sneak into the playoff picture by season’s end.

Tier 4: It could always be worse

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Both teams boast new quarterbacks and also ended up being in the most discussions during the offseason. There is plenty of narrative heading into this game. The fallout after Week 1 going forward will be something to monitor for whoever loses.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• Jim Harbaugh makes his official debut as the coach for the Chargers. If you recall, Las Vegas trounced L.A. 63–21 the last time these teams faced off. One day later, Brandon Staley was out the door.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks – Sunday @ 4:05 pm EST

• Two teams each with outlooks that are unpredictable to say the least. Can Denver recover from the Russell Wilson tenure, or will this be the end of the line for Sean Payton.

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• The 1pm slate is stacked as it is, but like Buffalo, Cincinnati is eyeing a bounce-back year. Joe Burrow is finally back and healthy, while New England is ushering in a new era of its own.

Tier 5: Snooze fest

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• The NFC South is generally not that intriguing outside of Atlanta. Carolina’s 5.5 over-under win total ranks tied for second lowest in the league while the Saints are very much a team stuck in no man’s land. A rematch later in the year could have more intrigue, but not the first game out of the gate.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday @ 4:25 pm EST

• The debut for Jayden Daniels is broadly one of the top storylines for Week 1. In the bigger picture, neither Washington nor Tampa Bay has a ceiling higher than a seventh seed in the NFC. The matchup stands out little among the late-afternoon games.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants – Sunday @ 1 pm EST

• Both teams boast over-under lines at 6.5, which is tied for third-worst in the NFL. A matchup between Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones doesn’t jump off a page at all. There’s also plenty of other games during that Sunday early-afternoon window. Lastly, little postseason stakes on the line here to think about, at least for now.