A season that opened with promise derailed quickly for the Dallas Mavericks. A team that ESPN said had a 50.6% chance to make the playoffs with a projected 42 wins in the preseason now sits 12th in the Western Conference, 8.5 games out of a Play-In spot with 21 games left.
The standings may not favor Dallas, but the final weeks of the season still carry significant implications for the Mavericks. With the playoffs likely out of reach, the focus shifts to player success, evaluation, and the team’s draft position.
With that in mind, here are three things to watch for the rest of the season in Dallas.
Can Cooper Flagg retake the lead in the Rookie of the Year race?
There’s a reason the Mavericks took Cooper Flagg No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. Drawing comparisons to NBA legends all throughout high school and college, an argument could be made that he was the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James.
So far in his rookie campaign, he has not disappointed. On Jan. 30, in a game against the Charlotte Hornets, Flagg scored 49 points, a record for the most points by a teenager. He also holds the records for youngest player to score 40+, the youngest player with four straight 30-point games, and the second-youngest player to reach 1,000 career points, behind only LeBron James.
All the while, Flagg is averaging 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, all of which are top three in each category for rookies this season.
Unfortunately for Flagg, he was out for 22 days in February with an injury. This gave fellow Duke rookie, Kon Knueppel, time to take the lead for the rookie of the year chase.
Knueppel broke the rookie record with over 207 three-pointers and became the fastest player in NBA history to reach 100 made threes.
For Flagg to retake the lead, he just needs to get back to playing his game. His scoring ability has already produced historic moments, but finishing the season with a strong stretch of performances could shift the narrative back in his favor.
If he can return to the form that he’s played at thus far, the media may once again view him as the frontrunner.
Will the Mavericks Give AJ Johnson the Minutes to Develop?
Even when viewed without the context of the deal that brought him to Dallas, the trade that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards was not a great one for the Mavericks.
The Wizards game the Mavericks two unfavorable first-round picks, an aging Khris Middleton, Marvin Bagley III, and Malakai Branham (who they later traded away for Tyus Jones, who Dallas would end up waiving)
The most intriguing part of the deal was the final player acquired by the Mavericks: a 6-foot-5 guard from Fresno, California, AJ Johnson.
Previously playing for the Illawarra Hawks of the NBL, Johnson came into the NBA with major intrigue. Milwaukee saw him as a long-term project player when the Bucks selected him 23rd in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Unfortunately, Johnson’s first two seasons in the NBA have been rough. He’s averaging around five points per game, while shooting under 30% from three.
However, Johnson has only played 65 games in his career so far, not even a full NBA season yet. With Dallas focused on the future, the final weeks of the season may be the perfect time to evaluate what Johnson can become. Increased minutes would allow him to work through mistakes while giving the coaching staff a clearer picture of his long-term role.
If Johnson can show improvement, he could begin to carve out a place in Dallas’ rotation heading into next season. But that improvement won’t come from the bench.
Where Will Dallas End Up in the Lottery Standings?
The good news in this lost season for the Mavericks is that the upcoming draft class is stacked with talent. With Dallas in line to land a lottery pick, they are sure to obtain a star rookie to pair with Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving.
The bad news is that the Mavericks are not the only ones in the lottery chase. Not by a long shot.
Despite being 21 games under .500, the Mavericks currently sit seventh in lottery odds. The Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, and New Orleans Pelicans all have a worse record than the Mavs.
With several teams clustered near the bottom of the standings, the final weeks of the season could dramatically alter where Dallas finishes in the lottery order.
A brief winning streak could push the Mavericks further down the odds, while a stretch of losses might only incrementally move them closer to the top of the draft board. But every position is a great chance at an exceptional talent.
That makes every remaining game matter, even if the postseason is no longer within reach. Where Dallas ultimately lands in the standings could determine whether the Mavericks are selecting from the very top tier of the draft class or slightly further down the board.
Leave a comment