It’s been a challenging season for the Denver Nuggets, as they’ve seen much of their roster get ravaged by injuries. Starters Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun have each missed over 26 games.
Meanwhile, three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and key bench contributor Peyton Watson have each missed over 15. Nevertheless, the Nuggets find themselves in a dogfight for one of the top spots in the West as they slowly but surely reach full power.
Last Friday against the Knicks, the Nuggets trotted out their true starting lineup for the first time since early November. They lost by nearly 40 points, but instantaneous success for this group is simply unrealistic.
Additionally, Jamal Murray rolled his ankle early on and was forced to leave the game. His injury was not severe, and he is already day-to-day, but it goes to show how unlucky the Nuggets have been all season.
Denver still has about a month to allow their starters to re-acclimate before the playoffs roll around. Although updates on his status have been limited as of late, Peyton Watson could return any day now, which would finally make the Nuggets fully healthy.
Much has changed since that was last the case. Peyton Watson ramped up his play, Johnson and Braun have taken a step back in offensive production, and Tyus Jones joined the squad last Thursday. Hence, only time will tell what the rotation will look like in April — but we can speculate in the meantime.
Nuggets’ Starting Lineup
The starting lineup of Murray, Braun, Johnson, Gordon, and Jokic will likely remain unchanged. Unlike other NBA teams, the Nuggets have historically been consistent with their starters. Last year, their starting lineup was the same, except Michael Porter Jr. was at the three in place of Johnson. The year before that it was the same case, except Kentavious Caldwell-Pope started over the still-developing Braun.
Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been phenomenal off the bench. They are both averaging more points per game than Johnson and Braun. Still, Head Coach David Adelman will likely continue to utilize their skills off the bench.
Both players give Adelman a huge advantage, as they prevent their team from sacrificing scoring when the starters from both sides sub out. Additionally, Hardaway Jr. has been averaging 27 minutes a game despite only starting five times. It seems Adelman has clearly figured out how to maximize his usage even when he comes off the bench.
What About Watson?
Adelman proved back in November that he could afford to give both his starters and Hardaway Jr. big minutes. Those rotations did not include this version of Peyton Watson, though. Before all the injuries began, Watson was averaging a mere 7.1 points in 21.2 minutes per game. Since then, he has averaged 16.5 points per game and 33.4 minutes per game in 39 starts.
Adelman does not have enough minutes available to play Watson this much now. Hence, Adelman has two options: either decrease Braun and Johnson’s minutes or take from other bench contributors like Bruce Brown.
Denver’s Bench Overview
The bench rotation will likely contain the most amount of drama, as it is far less certain than the starting lineup. This lack of clarity, though, is not exactly a negative — they simply have an abundance of options.
Last year, the Nuggets mostly ran an eight-man rotation in the playoffs. In their penultimate playoff game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, outside of their starters, only Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther touched the floor.
Such limited depth has proven to be unsustainable in the modern NBA. In the most recent championship series, the Thunder and the Indiana Pacers often utilized nine and even ten-man rotations. Therefore, the Nuggets, along with other elite NBA teams, will likely follow suit.
Unlike the regular season, playoff lineups are far more sporadic. With elimination always looming, coaches become more desperate and more likely to make changes. However, the most likely bench unit for Denver in the playoffs is Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, and Jonas Valanciunas, with Julian Strawther sprinkled in every now and then.
Point Guard Prediction
As most Nuggets fans know, the backup point guard has been a glaring issue over the last few years. After Bruce Brown’s departure, Denver tried out Reggie Jackson the next year and Russell Westbrook the one after that. Both players showed flashes of reliability, but their turnovers, inefficiencies, shot-chucking nature, and defensive lapses played a large role in Denver’s consecutive playoff exits.
Now that the Nuggets have Brown back, fans feel much more confident.
Brown is not exactly guaranteed to be the sole backup point guard. Jalen Pickett has been averaging 17 minutes a game this season, increasing his playing time and production year after year. Additionally, the Nuggets just signed veteran point guard Tyus Jones, who averaged over 10 points and 21 minutes across his previous three seasons.
While both point guards could potentially get some playoff reps, Brown will likely handle the brunt of the load. Pickett has consistently taken regular-season reps, but his playing time has always subsided come April. As for Jones, his presence is likely more as an insurance option with veteran leadership. Seeing as Denver just signed him last week, big playoff minutes for him seem highly unlikely.
Should something happen to one of Denver’s guards, Adelman knows he can plug in Jones or Pickett and have a shot. If not, their role may be reduced to encouraging their teammates from the sidelines.
Winning Wings and a Battle-Tested Big
The Nuggets are incredibly lucky to be able to enter the playoffs with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Peyton Watson off the bench. Both are averaging over 13 points per game, and they would likely be starters on countless other teams.
Julian Strawther, though, is a more interesting case. His reps have decreased this year with all the talent that Denver brought in last offseason. But, as he showed last year, Adelman is willing to turn to Strawther when his team needs a scoring burst. And as we saw in Game 6 against the Thunder, Strawther can oblige.
Hence, while he may not get consistent minutes, don’t be surprised to see him by the scorer’s table if the Nuggets are trailing and need a spark.
As for Jokic’s backup, Jonas Valanciunas has that role on lock. Denver essentially signed him for the sole purpose of allowing Jokic to get a breather for ten to fifteen minutes in the playoffs. He’s not as talented as he used to be, but he brings stability, experience, and a high defensive IQ to a team that will desperately need it.
Nuggets’ Rotation Roundup
Both units, specifically the bench, could be subject to change. If Jones has a strong finish to the year, he could take some point guard reps. If Strawther gets hot, he could be a consistent contributor. If Adelman decides to roll with a frontcourt of Gordon and Watson when Jokic rests, Valanciunas could lose his spot. And if Watson continues to produce upon his return, there’s a chance he ekes his way into the starting lineup.
Nevertheless, the Nuggets have all the pieces. This is likely the deepest team they have ever assembled in the Jokic era. They have defense across the board as well as knockdown shooting. They have youth, they have experience, and they even have insurance options in case of more injuries. Regardless of what the lineups look like, this is Denver’s best shot in a while.
Only time will tell what Adelman chooses to do with all these pieces, and only time will tell how Denver’s season will pan out.
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