The 2026 season of Major League Baseball has been pleasantly unpredictable while staying in line with preseason expectations.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are good. The Boston Red Sox are not. The New York Yankees are the best team in the American League, and the New York Mets are one of the worst in the National League. As of June 18 the Washington Nationals had more wins than the Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers.
The month of June in baseball is a hybrid trail marker between ‘it’s still early’ and ‘it’s time to take things seriously’. Slowly approaching the Midsummer Classic, most of the teams’ records truthfully reflect their season’s expectations. Most of the records.
Among the best teams in baseball, a few clubs’ unsuspecting starts are here to stay, while others have fraudulent undertones. Some are the confirmed contenders, and others are impostors.
Tampa Bay Rays
Contenders.
The Rays weren’t just having a surprisingly positive season through May; they were playing like one of the most complete teams in the league. Tampa Bay held first place in the AL East for over a month before succumbing to the Yankees two weeks ago. Although June hasn’t gone entirely as planned, the Rays are playing like an under-the-radar AL candidate.
Tampa Bay’s starting pitching is staying at par with the Yankees’ $83 million rotation, with only 0.10 runs separating their ERAs. Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez have been borderline premier, being able to go toe-to-toe against any starting duo in the league. It’s the bullpen that’s slowing them down, although, with the reliever ERA nearing 4.5, yet it remains in the bottom 10 of blown leads.
Tampa’s offense excels in not striking out, with the third least total in the league. This lineup stays centered around Yandy Diaz with a well-rounded infield, including Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda. What they lack in leaving the yard, they make up for in rudimentary small-ball.
The Rays hold the second-best record in the AL and trail the Yankees by two games as of June 23. The state of the American League – with only five teams above .500 – leaves a grand opportunity for Tampa Bay, making them real contenders for not just the AL but the World Series entirely.
San Diego Padres
Pretenders.
San Diego currently sits tied for a final Wild Card spot in the NL postseason picture, a position it has held for most of the season. On May 18, the Padres were 29-18, second in the NL and in first place in their division. In their next 26 games, they went 9-17 and lost 6.5 games in the National League.
San Diego hasn’t dropped below .500 since April 8, yet it trots out the worst offense in baseball each night. A lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Jackson Merrill – none of whom have missed time – is dead last in team average, on base percentage, slug, OPS, runs and hits.
At the height of their success on May 18, the offense was still below league average, posting 4.2 runs per game. Since then, that mark has fallen to 3.5 a game with five shutouts.
Tatis Jr. has two home runs. Machado is hitting .185. Merrill and Bogaerts combined OPS’s average out to .642. The Padres have committed $1.1 billion to those four players alone.
This club’s pitching is the only reason for relevance. While the rotation is top-heavy, the bullpen is truly elite. They have the least amount of blown leads and the second-lowest reliever ERA. Yet, this formula of baseball is far from sufficient and will not lead to wins. If San Diego continues down this path, expect a team with a busy phone line at the trade deadline and a record securely below .500 after 162.
Cleveland Guardians
Contenders.
Cleveland is a less extreme version of the Padres, with pitching that well outweighs the lineup, but this time in a sustainable manner. The Guardians organization does all of the internal managing well. They draft, develop and scout well, which doesn’t come across as flashy to the rest of the league but translates to wins on the field.
Cleveland’s consistently in the basement of total payroll, yet always in the mix at the end of the season. This year is no deferral to that; they are dead last in team salary while tied for a division and comfortably in the postseason.
Jose Ramirez continues to spearhead the lineup, now with some youthful support around him. Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana both made their debuts in 2026, and both supplied help. Gavin Williams has collected the most wins of any pitcher in the American League, and Cade Smith has collected the most saves of any pitcher in Major League Baseball. Cleveland persists in not being the most exciting or eye-grabbing team, yet one of the most sound.
St. Louis Cardinals
Pretenders.
It’s now confirmed that the Cardinals are the most surprising team of 2026. After blowing it up this winter and essentially starting a rebuild, the youngest team in the sport is winning like a playoff team, yet it’s still unlikely they make it there.
Numerically, St. Louis is middle of the pack across the board. The offense is a step ahead of the pitching, largely thanks to rookie JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker. Wetherholt has lived up to his ambitions following an anticipated debut, and Walker has seemed to finally figure it out in the big leagues.
With this being said, the Cardinals’ run differential as a team healthily above .500 is only +5. This might seem like a developing, exciting team with unexpected sights set on October, but this roster simply doesn’t have the durability.
This Cardinals team in the 2026 American League could see itself fighting for a World Series berth. Instead, they have to compete with the established likes of the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies. St. Louis is just 22-19 against teams above .500, which is good all things considered, but not a margin of a true postseason contender.
If you give this front office a trade deadline and offseason to work around this roster, expect true competition from the Cardinals very soon. However, these winning ways aren’t here entirely, and will end 2026 outside the playoff picture.
Honorable Mentions
A few other winning clubs have slim make-or-break margins. Some quiet teams that could turn into contenders are the Chicago White Sox, Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates. All three are budding teams that’ve tasted success in 2026 but still feel a measure behind. As of June 23, the White Sox are tied with Cleveland for first in the AL Central, and both the Nats and Pirates are within two games of the playoffs.
The Phillies and Cubs are in similar boats, both capable of winning a World Series while still far too inconsistent. The National League has no breaks among division leaders and winning teams, still leaving plenty of drama to unfold.
The 2026 season has been pleasantly unpredictable. The only question left is how unpredictable will the rest of it be?
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