With NFL preseason officially kicking off, it is time for one of the most anticipated parts of the offseason: fantasy drafts. Fantasy leagues are often won by finding value in the later rounds and lost by falling for the wrong players early. Every season brings players who outperform their draft position and others who fail to live up to the hype. Here are the players who could emerge as fantasy sleepers, as well as those who could disappoint at their current draft price.
A Closer Look at the Bucs Backfield
Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving is well known for his breakout rookie season in 2024. However, he was a massive disappointment for fantasy owners in 2025. The Buccaneers added Kenny Gainwell this offseason, which could create major problems for Irving.
Irving’s biggest concern heading into the 2026 season is his grip on the Buccaneers’ running back room. Tampa Bay gave Gainwell a two-year, $14 million contract with $9.83 million fully guaranteed. The team sees Gainwell as more than just a depth piece and expects him to have a meaningful role in this offense.
Gainwell is coming off a 2025 season in which he set career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, receptions and receiving yards. His ability to contribute both as a runner and receiver gives Tampa Bay another versatile option out of the backfield. If Gainwell earns the coaching staff’s trust, Irving could see his opportunities decrease. That would make it difficult for Irving to live up to his current fantasy value.
With so much uncertainty surrounding Irving’s role, fantasy managers should look elsewhere at his current draft price. Gainwell, on the other hand, could be an intriguing late-round target with the opportunity to earn a larger role as the season progresses. If he can take advantage of his opportunities, Gainwell has the potential to provide significant value for fantasy managers.
Can Dart Take the Next Step?
Finding a top quarterback in the middle to late rounds of the fantasy draft can give managers a major advantage. Drake Maye was a great example last season, as he was drafted around the 10th round and finished as the QB2 in fantasy football. New York Giants sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart has the potential to follow a similar path in 2026.
Dart took over as the Giants’ starting quarterback and produced despite playing on a team that struggled throughout the season. He finished with 2,272 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns and just five interceptions in 14 games. What makes Dart even more appealing for fantasy is what he was able to do with his legs. He rushed for 487 yards and nine touchdowns, giving him an added source of fantasy production that many quarterbacks do not have.
Despite the lack of a strong supporting cast around him, Dart showed that he could create plays and produce fantasy points on his own. That makes his situation heading into 2026 even more intriguing, as the Giants have made major changes around their young quarterback.
New York hired John Harbaugh as head coach and Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator, giving Dart a new coaching staff heading into his second season. Harbaugh brings a Super Bowl-winning track record, while Nagy has experience working with quarterbacks and building offenses around their strengths. The changes give Dart a fresh start and could help him take another step forward.
The Giants have also improved the talent around their young quarterback. Malik Nabers is working his way back from a knee injury and recently returned to live team drills, giving the Giants hope that their top receiver can be back on the field this season. New York also added veteran tight end Isaiah Likely, giving Dart another experienced option in the passing game.
Dart has already shown he can produce in a difficult situation. Now, he enters his second season with a new coaching staff and more talent around him. If those improvements translate to the field, Dart could provide excellent value as a fantasy quarterback.
Third Year Breakout Looming in New York
Finding wide receivers who can take a major step forward can provide tremendous value in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. One player who could be ready for a breakout season in 2026 is Adonai Mitchell.
Adonai Mitchell enters his third season in the NFL with a chance to finally live up to the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2024. After joining the Jets midway through last season, Mitchell showed flashes of what he could bring to the offense. His strong offseason has only added to the excitement, as he has consistently stood out during OTAs and training camp while building chemistry with new quarterback Geno Smith.
Smith’s addition could be especially important for Mitchell. Smith has shown a willingness to attack defenses down the field, which fits well with Mitchell’s ability as a deep threat. The two have already connected on several deep plays during training camp. Mitchell is entering his third season and now getting a full offseason with the Jets. He could finally have the opportunity to reach the potential many expected when he was drafted in the second round.
New Wide Receiver One in Las Vegas
Mitchell has plenty working in his favor heading into 2026, but Jalen Nailor finds himself in an equally interesting situation. His previous relationship with Kirk Cousins could be especially valuable early in the season. The two spent time together in Minnesota, giving Nailor an established connection with the quarterback expected to start the season. As the Raiders eventually transition to Fernando Mendoza, Nailor could carry that potential early-season momentum into a new quarterback relationship.
Nailor could also benefit from working with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. During his time with the Seahawks, Kubiak helped put Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a position to have a breakout season. While Nailor isn’t Smith-Njigba, Kubiak’s offensive system could give him opportunities to use his speed and make plays downfield.
The Raiders’ lack of proven talent at wide receiver is another reason to keep an eye on Nailor. Tre Tucker led the team with just 696 receiving yards last season, while the rest of the group remains relatively unproven. With plenty of targets available, Nailor has a chance to establish himself as a key part of the offense and become a valuable late-round fantasy pick.
Second Year Concerns in Cleveland
Two AFC North running backs could be risky picks based on their current fantasy projections. Quinshon Judkins and Jaylen Warren both have talent, but their current projections may be higher than what they can realistically deliver.
Quinshon Judkins enters his second NFL season with several concerns that could make him a risky fantasy selection. The Browns’ quarterback situation is one of the biggest. Cleveland is still deciding between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. Neither quarterback has provided much confidence heading into the season. That uncertainty could make it easier for defenses to focus on stopping the Browns’ rushing attack.
Judkins also enters the season after dealing with injuries throughout much of the offseason. He suffered a fractured fibula and dislocated ankle in Week 16 of his rookie season, requiring surgery and ending his year. Although he was cleared for a full return to training camp in July, he has continued to deal with setbacks, including missing practice after a recent physical incident.
The situation reminds me of what happened with Jets running back Breece Hall last season. Despite rushing for a career-high 1,065 yards, Hall finished with only four rushing touchdowns and struggled to provide consistent fantasy production as the Jets’ offense failed to threaten defenses through the air.
If Cleveland’s passing game fails to give defenses a reason to respect the quarterback, Judkins could face a similar problem as opposing defenses load the box and limit his efficiency. With his current fantasy projection, that creates a concerning combination for Judkins heading into 2026.
No Lead Back in Pittsburgh
While Judkins faces concerns surrounding his situation in Cleveland, Jaylen Warren has a new challenge of his own in Pittsburgh.
Warren’s biggest concern heading into 2026 is Rico Dowdle‘s addition. The Steelers signed Dowdle to a two-year, $12 million contract this offseason, making it unlikely Warren will get the same workload he has in the past. Dowdle has familiarity with new head coach Mike McCarthy from their time together in Dallas, which could help him earn a consistent role in the offense.
The Steelers now have two capable backs who could split the workload throughout the season. Dowdle’s physical running style could also make him a strong candidate for short-yardage and goal-line carries, potentially taking valuable touchdown opportunities away from Warren.
If the backfield becomes a true committee, Warren may struggle to receive enough touches to justify his current fantasy projection.
Can Lemon Find Fantasy Success in Philly?
Makai Lemon enters the NFL with plenty of hype after the Eagles traded up to select him 20th overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. Expectations grew even higher after the team traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots this offseason, potentially opening up more opportunities for the rookie. However, Lemon’s first offseason has not gone as smoothly as many had hoped.
He has missed significant time with a hamstring injury, limiting his ability to build chemistry with Jalen Hurts and establish himself in the Eagles’ offense.
The missed time becomes even more concerning when looking at the competition around him. DeVonta Smith remains a major part of the passing game, while Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown are also competing for snaps. With Lemon missing valuable time and his role early in the season still uncertain, it could be difficult for him to live up to his current fantasy expectations.
Finding Better Value Than Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten enters his second NFL season with plenty of hype, but his current fantasy projection may be too high. Tuten showed flashes as a rookie, but his limited workload raises questions about whether he can take the significant jump needed to justify his draft position.
Those concerns become even greater with Jacksonville expected to use a committee approach in the backfield. Head coach Liam Coen has confirmed that Tuten will share the workload with Chris Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen Jr.
This makes it difficult to predict a consistent volume of touches for Tuten. While he could still emerge as the most productive back of the group, fantasy managers are being asked to draft him based largely on that potential rather than a proven role.
With Tuten facing competition for touches, his current projection leaves little room for disappointment. Instead of reaching for Tuten, fantasy managers could wait a few rounds for Rachaad White. White offers better value and still has the potential to make an impact.
One reason White could provide better value later in the draft is his previous production as a receiver. White has recorded 205 receptions and 1,450 receiving yards through his first four seasons, giving him a proven track record in the passing game. His previous relationship with Jayden Daniels could also benefit him in Washington. Daniels may view White as a reliable security blanket out of the backfield.
White doesn’t need to dominate the backfield to provide fantasy value at his current projection. If he can earn a consistent share of touches while remaining involved in the passing game, he could outperform his draft position. For fantasy managers willing to wait, White could be a much more appealing selection than reaching for Tuten several rounds earlier.
Fantasy football is all about finding value. Knowing when to take a chance can make a major difference on draft day. The players discussed throughout this article all come with their own risks and rewards. Even so, identifying the right late-round targets while avoiding overpriced players could give fantasy managers an advantage this season.
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