Last Week, ESPN released its player projections for the 2025-26 NBA season. According to their projections, some key Lakers’ players are set to make a jump from last year, while others are expected to hit a decline. The question is, do these projections make sense?
Luka Doncic
2024-25: 28.2 PPG, 7.7 APG, 8.2 RPG
2025-26 Projection: 30.1 PPG, 8.2 APG, 8.5 RPG
Last year, Luka Doncic averaged 28.2 points, 7.7 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game. These numbers sound great, but for a superstar coming off back-to-back seasons averaging over 32 points per game, it’s a down year.
Throughout the season, Doncic battled injuries and only played in 50 games, the lowest number of his career. There was also a lot of noise as he tried to recover from those injuries. Doncic was out of shape and could not play at the level fans were used to seeing him play at.
Well, it seems Doncic has heard the noise and is looking to make a statement. Earlier this summer, he appeared on the cover of Men’s Health Magazine, and his improved fitness has been obvious. As a result, fans have turned “Skinny Luka” into a trend all summer.
This month, his fitness was put to the test in the EuroBasket tournament. He dominated throughout the tournament. He averaged 34.7 points per game, earned a spot on the tournament’s All-Star Five and even picked up a nomination for the EuroBasket Best Defensive Player award.
https://twitter.com/LakersLead/status/1964730933644562874
Given what he has shown this summer, maybe a two-point increase doesn’t measure up to what we’re about to see from Doncic.
LeBron James
2024-25: 24.4 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.8 RPG
2025-26 Projection: 24.9 PPG, 8.2 APG, 7.7 RPG
It’s no secret that James is aging, but the 40-year-old continues to amaze with his production year in and year out. However, I think we sometimes forget that, despite his greatness, he is, in fact, entering his 23rd NBA season. To expect any increase in scoring production is extremely optimistic.
Starting in the 2021-2022 season, where he averaged 30.3 points per game, James’ scoring output has decreased by an average of 1.9 points per game from year to year.
In addition to his aging, James is also in a newfound situation. He’s set to play a full season alongside Doncic, an established superstar and No. 1 option, Austin Reaves, fresh off a 20-point-per-game season and looking to make noise in his contract year, and DeAndre Ayton, a walking double-double.
With his age and the team’s decreasing dependence on him, LeBron’s scoring production should continue to drop, not increase.
Austin Reaves
2024-25: 20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG, 4.5 RPG
2025-26 Projections: 18.6 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.3 RPG
Austin Reaves is coming off the best season of his career, recording career-highs in all major statistical categories, and is entering a contract year where a lot is at stake for him. However, like James, he is about to find himself in a new situation.
Reaves’ role and production have steadily increased over the last few years, but now, with the addition of Ayton and Doncic gearing up to play their first full seasons with the Lakers, Reaves may have to sacrifice some of his game.
Marcus Smart joining the team also makes Reaves coming off the bench a real possibility. If he does come off the bench, he should emerge as the favorite for the Sixth Man of the Year award.
Deandre Ayton
2024-25: 14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG
2025-26 Projections: 15.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG
When Ayton was traded from the Phoenix Suns two years ago, he joined a young and developing Portland Trail Blazers team. And when the Trail Blazers drafted big man Donovan Clingan last year, it was clear Ayton did not fit their timeline.
Ayton only played a total of 95 games in his two seasons with the Trail Blazers. In those 95 games, he and the Trail Blazers didn’t have much to play for. In his situation, a drop in production is fairer than most. Now he’s in Los Angeles, and the Lakers expect him to be at his best.
The Lakers have championship aspirations, and Ayton has big shoes to fill at the center position after Anthony Davis’ departure. Lining up next to Doncic and James should give him a smooth transition.
He should thrive in a James or Doncic-led pick-and-roll, and an increase in scoring will be the result.
https://twitter.com/LakersLead/status/1942721006583370126
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